Willy Woo Profile picture
21 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Old hands have been selling into this rally since the start of Nov (BTC @$13k).
Here's a more precise view of it:

Dormancy tracks the how long on average the coins have been latent in wallets per coin that was transacted.

This chart filters for only transactions between different investors. (@glassnode data)
It used to be that peaks in destruction or dormancy would be a bad sign for the market as old coins have more experienced masters, thus smarter money; this would predict a price drop. These days not always, OG whales also sell bottoms. Smarter money has arrived.
Post this now as while there's so much FOMO and strong fundamentals being blasted out, there's also signs of the market being overheated locally. I'd be very surprised if we break all-time-high on the first try without a rejection, or consolidation, before a second run at it.

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More from @woonomic

6 Nov
#MarketUpdate THREAD

The most organic pump I've seen in years.

This was not a squeeze from derivatives traders but from solid organic buying.
Exhibit A:

A ridiculous amount of coins were scooped up and moved off to individual wallets.
Zooming out, putting this into perspective, it's the largest one day scoop up in this 5-year chart.
Read 10 tweets
29 Oct
First signs of de-coupling behaviour spotted between BTC and stocks.

Buying from an influx of new users provides price support preventing speculators from trading the correlation downwards.

NVTP approximates a valuation for BTC with organic investor velocity on the blockchain. Image
Another explanation of this, from 2 months ago when we were doubtful it would happen:

Read 5 tweets
27 Oct
#analysis THREAD

Here I'll show that investors already consider BTC a safe haven under on-chain capital flows.

Common wisdom that BTC is "risk-on" is a fallacy; solely a consequence of trader liquidations on derivative exchanges.
During the 2 months of the COVID "correction" BTC price went from $9k to $9k with very quick and deep price rejection below $7k. Even traders rejected sub $7k valuations.
As fears of COVID swept the economy, investors moved into Bitcoin. You can see this in the NVT Price Chart which values BTC according to on-chain investment velocity.
Read 9 tweets
22 Oct
On-chain HOLDers: 23.4m
Unique users on exchanges: 101m
Total on-chain participants: 187m (upper bound)
PayPal userbase: 487m

So yeah, PayPal is bullish AF.

Full commentary and datasources threaded below, worth reading 👇
There are 23.4m clusters of addresses that represent active (non zero balance) HODLers currently seen on the #Bitcoin blockchain. There is an upper bound of 187m participants that have come in and out of Bitcoin.
Nobody exited Bitcoin before the advent of Mt Gox, the first Bitcoin exchange with traction.

The red line tracks participants, blue line actively HODLing coins. You can see some people sold out after MtGox provided the means.
Read 10 tweets
21 Oct
User base:
PayPal 346m+
Bitcoin 187m+

This is a big deal.

Estimating how many HODLers of BTC from on-chain forensics is from the incredible work of @glassnode.
I love how this log chart starts off as total user count of 1; Satoshi Nakamoto ♥️.
Datasource: new participants coming into Bitcoin (accounting for clustering of wallets belong together), then cumulatively add it together.

@glassnode link (premium data which is pay-walled): studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&…

Read 5 tweets
18 Oct
I was going to tweet something tongue-in-cheek about #gold's inflation bug where new supply rains down on the planet unchecked by their miners.

Instead I'll do a researched thread on space mining, it's talked about, but gold-bugs don't understand its viability and timeline.

👇
10% of near Earth Asteroids are more accessible than the moon. Accessibility is measured in energy terms (delta-v, a unit of speed), essentially it's the speed a rocket needs to hurl a probe / mining equipment to intercept the destination.
Delta-v energy requirements (km/s):

9.6 Earth -> LEO (low earth orbit)
6.4 LEO -> Lunar surface
10.7 LEO -> Mars surface

Less than 6.4 from LEO to 10% of near earth asteroids. And to 1.0 - 2.0 to get materials back to Earth.
Read 10 tweets

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