@justthefactsmn it's a complex issue.

suicide, OD, deaths of despair from dementia are all off the charts.

i get real time Rx data. you should see what's going on with antidepressants.

laundry list of death enhancers here

@justthefactsmn there is also a second issue at play: the US had an incredibly mild flu year last year. lots of people lived past actuarial expectancy.

this has had strong correlation to more covid deaths.

this is the "dry tinder" thesis and looks sound.

@justthefactsmn we also had some staggeringly bad policy in the US. 6 states forced covid patients into nursing homes to "spare hospitals" they are 18% of population,40-45% deaths

to be cure, covid did cause deaths and excess deaths, but ACD in a lockdown country is not a good measure of them

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More from @boriquagato

23 Nov
this is not a study.

it's based on a model that estimated that X% of spread is from asymptomatic and then, surprise! got that as output.

this is literally saying "my model says that if i multiple X by 3, it triples!"

how is this passing for science to inform policy?
the CNN article he cites cites this "study" which is not a study at all.

it's a complex mathematical model that has long since fallen on its face.

this is, at best, extremely misleading.

it's a percolation model build on bad premises.

they assume that PCR+ is a "case" and that spread must be "asymptomatic" when this is just the recipe for a casedemic from over-testing.

they then assume their premise and claim that a remainder must be asympt spread. Image
Read 5 tweets
23 Nov
CDC claims that masks stopped the spread of covid in kansas by comparing masked and non-masked counties.

counterpoint: this was a cherry pick in terms of date and seasonality.

they ended the "study" aug 23.

then, covid season hit and the masks look to have made no difference. Image
how is it that every time someone has a "masks work" study, as soon as you look at how they did it, the methodology falls apart?

"team mask" has been relentless in pushing tragically, offensively bad science and top officials like gottlieb parrot it.

did he even read it?
because it's clearly a hilariously bad methodology and we've now had more data to check the hypothesis.

this study was released with the data that disproves it already available.

let's repeat that:

this study was released with the data that disproves it already available.
Read 6 tweets
23 Nov
@PiranhaCapital @real_MikeBarnes @GCA_Worldwide there is lots or hard evidence for biome specific immunity.

SARS-1 never spread to the US. neither did MERS.

this study of pre-covid 19 blood samples shows 10-15X the prevalence of sars-2 antibodies in africa vs US

@PiranhaCapital @real_MikeBarnes @GCA_Worldwide regional virus exposure is not that uncommon and similarity to sars-2 does not necessarily imply contagion like sars-2.

you could spend years generation localized cross resistance from endemic or source based viruses with low R.

then you get a breakout variant like sars-2
@PiranhaCapital @real_MikeBarnes @GCA_Worldwide the idea that lockdowns work looks pretty fraught. every standing set of pandemic guidelines from 2020 said they do not and no contrary evidence has emerged since.

asia has varies responses, all got same results.

no way this was just NPI.

Read 4 tweets
23 Nov
there seems to be a lot of grandstanding by the lockdown governors (who are almost invariably democrats as this issue has become distressingly partisan) but when one looks at red state vs blue state outcomes, it raises some serious questions.

(graph from david steinmier, PhD) Image
the blue states are faring noticeably less well than the red.

this has been true all along.

interestingly, red states are noticeably fatter which is a significant cov risk enhancer (and links to others like diabetes)

so, ceteris paribus, you'd expect more red state deaths. Image
the rejoinder to this has always been "but density!" but this has been a surprisingly poor predictor of death rates globally.

most of the data is highly uncorrelated with a few outliers driving outcomes. county level is a little better, but not great. globally, it's worse. Image
Read 11 tweets
22 Nov
how to lie with correlations: harley davidson limited edition.

there has been a lot of aggressive talk about how sturgis was a massive super spreader event

charts like this make it tempting to agree.

but be very careful about doing so: there's a big issue with this graph Image
it's from 5000 miles away and across an ocean.

as one can rapidly see "cases" measured here are in eastern europe, not the american midwest.

hard to imagine the harley folk having caused this no matter how hard they partied. Image
interestingly enough, south dakota and czechia look incredibly similar in terms of disease curve (deaths per million population) despite having totally different responses.

(the CZE data is real day of death, so it lags. the last 10-14 days are likely incomplete) Image
Read 8 tweets
21 Nov
anyone still presuming that a + PCR test is showing a covid case needs to read this v carefully:

even 25 cycles of amplification, 70% of "positives" are not "cases." virus cannot be cultured. it's dead.

by 35: 97% non-clinical.

the US runs at 40, 32X the amplification of 35.
a lot of people still seem to not understand what this means, so let's lay that out for a minute.

PCR tests look for RNA. there is too little in your swab. so they amplify it using a primer based heating and annealing process.

each cycle of this process doubles the material.
the US (and much of the world) is using a 40 Ct (cycle threshold). so, 40 doublings, 1 trillion X amplification.

this is absurdly high.

the way that we know this is by running this test, seeing the Ct to find the RNA, and then using the same sample to try to culture virus.
Read 19 tweets

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