Adam Profile picture
22 Nov, 8 tweets, 3 min read
“With many around the world focused on the dangerous military confrontation in Ethiopia, Somalia too is facing a triple security crisis that can jeopardize the country’s halting progress” timely analysis by @VFelbabBrown…
“Somalia’s upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections are the second component of the emerging security storm.”…
“While the formation of the new states and a new constitution are incomplete and halting, Somalia’s current government of President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (known as “Farmajo”), which is backed by Ethiopia, wants to recentralize power.”…
“Mohamed has aggressively meddled in the political affairs of Somalia’s new states.”…
“Ethiopian forces were essential for Robow’s arrest and were implicated in bloody repression of Robow’s supporters. Yet without Ethiopian forces, al-Shabab’s reach across the South West State, including its capital of Baidoa, would be even more pronounced”…
“If violence were to explode between Mogadishu and federal member states, it would also rapidly suck in local militias: clan-based, belonging to powerbrokers, or sponsored by external actors”…
“Puntland — which is anti-Mohamed and close to Madobe — could intensify its anti-Mogadishu moves and resurrect provocative measures, such as tightening an alliance with the UAE. (Qatar may be tempted to counter such moves through its proxies in Puntland)”…
“Somalia could easily topple into a complex civil war involving al-Shabab, clans, the federal member states, and Mogadishu. Years of state-building efforts could be rapidly wiped out.”…

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More from @adancabdulle

23 Nov
“The possible involvement of security forces in this appalling incident puts an even greater onus on the government to thoroughly investigate and prosecute those responsible and appropriately compensate the victims’ families.”… via
“Human Rights Watch interviewed, by phone between June and September, 13 witnesses and relatives of the health workers, as well as five journalists and humanitarian workers with knowledge of the area”…
“Residents said that their relationship with gov’t security forces had been particularly tense since late 2019, when the security forces arrested residents on several occasions following security incidents, accusing them of collaborating with Al-Shabab.”…
Read 4 tweets
22 Nov
Forecast from 2018. Everyone knew that what transpired in Baidoa in 2018 was an electoral template that would be replicated at both the regional & federal levels. Galmudug & Hiirshabelle elections confirmed this as did the formation of the @HSNQ_NISA dominated electoral committee
This is what made the strong and unequivocal endorsement of the illegitimate Hiirshabelle process by certain members of the opposition especially problematic. It served no purpose except discredit the opposition & preemptively justify the tampering of the electoral committee
I have said this number of times, and I will say it again: what transpired in Southwest, Galmudug & Hiirshabelle was a process of conditioning Somalis to accept that an illegitimate process could produce a legitimate outcome.
Read 4 tweets
20 Nov
Recently ousted PM @HassanAKhaire making the rounds in Mogadishu, creating a bogus narrative of a momentum. Already met the two former presidents & is currently meeting with @AAbdishakur who was the target of deadly raid authorized by @HassanAKhaire.
@HassanAKhaire is expected to make a statement apologizing for and distancing himself from @TheVillaSomalia’s most egregious acts of violence and punitive measures against the media & opposition while he was in power.
The opposition in Mogadishu have proven that they will do whatever it takes to discredit themselves and tarnish their already sullied reputation.
Read 5 tweets
20 Nov
Social amnesia has reached pandemic levels in Mogadishu. Yesterday’s thugs welcomed with the hope of replacing today’s thugs. A vicious cycle of garbage in, garbage out. Worse, some see no sense of irony in their actions.
Some in the opposition today seen gleefully taking pictures with @HassanAKhaire who until very recently was @M_Farmaajo’s main enabler in Mogadishu and who was behind FGS’ most flagrant abuses of power and political violence.
The end might justify the means, but history will never be kind to some in the opposition who engineered wittingly or unwittingly @M_Farmaajo’s unlikely win in 2016, and who today are conniving secretly with @HassanAKhaire the most despicable & dishonest politician in Somalia.
Read 5 tweets
19 Nov
The problem is that Somalia has an intel service that runs its foreign ministry & that of any other institution. It conducts regional elections and is now actively rigging the federal elections by creating phony electoral committees drawn from the intel service & Prez office.
Forced to choose between their own political survival & that of the interests of the institutions they represent, Somali bureaucrats have consistently chosen self-preservation. It has only emboldened nefarious actors such as Fahad Yassin.
There exists no better example of this humiliating culture of self-preservation than the current PM @MohamedHRoble who has chosen to become a spectator rather than a head of gov’t. He has allowed questionable individuals to dictate the affairs of the state.
Read 4 tweets
17 Nov
“Thrust into Somalia’s presidency, Farmajo has modeled himself more after his uncle (the late dictator Siad Barre, whose venality and thirst for power drove Somalia into state failure) than any inspiration garnered during his years in America.” Via @AEI…
“Farmajo may be president, but perhaps the most powerful man in Somalia is Fahad Yasin Haji Dahir, the head of the country’s National Intelligence and Security Agency.”…
“That such investment has not paid off should not surprise. A deep dive into Fahad’s biography suggests he could very well be al Qaeda’s inside man in the Somali government.”…
Read 10 tweets

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