I’ve dipped into GOP media to understand how they’re breaking the news that state certifications are coming to an audience that’s completely bought the case that the election was stolen, and boy it is a wild, wild acrobat act along the high wire of conspiracy-brain rationality
It’s basically: “Nobody is rooting harder than me for these allegations of mass alien body-snatching to be true, and indeed the claims that Democratic voters are mostly skin-suits for Martian visitors MUST be looked into, but I’m disappointed by the quality of evidence...”
If you spend several years building, feeding, nursing a Frankenstein monster that feeds on ever-larger conspiracies to live, don’t be surprised when the stories they demand go beyond your capacity to bullshit

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More from @DKThomp

8 Nov
holy moly did the northeast come home for the democratic party this cycle
... with the 2 big caveats being susan collins and incomplete polling data in ny
anybody wanna take the "Democrats Have a Mississippi River Left Bank Problem" assignment?
Read 4 tweets
8 Nov
More on 2020's diploma/density divide


1. There are 14 states w/ above-avg college attainment and above-avg urban-share of population. Democrats won 13—all but Utah.

2. Among counties w/ at least 30% college attainment, Democrats increased share in ~90%
3. Before this election, Democrats won in cities, and Republicans won in rural areas. That urban-rural gap seems to have widened in 2020, as rural counties edged right and high-income suburbs of big metros swung left.

Fascinating storyline to watch as all the votes come in and exit-poll data improves: Biden narrowly lost ground in counties where Clinton won 60%+ of the vote. But he massively turned out 2016's more moderate non-landslide counties.
Read 6 tweets
4 Nov
Too early to be sure about the *exact* numbers here, but seems like state polls missed by 5 points, on avg, in 2016 by understating noncollege support for the GOP. Then a bunch of pollsters studied the issue and changed their methodologies for 2020 ... and whiffed by 7 points.
Here's the American Association of Public Opinion Research report on 2016


Top reasons given for the huge '16 error was underweighting non-college voters (which many said they fixed) and last-minute deciders (of which there are supposedly fewer in 2020)
Outstanding Qs:

1. Did pollsters make the same GOP under-counting error twice despite explicitly trying to correct it? Or did they make a new exciting error?

2. Why is it so hard to survey Trump voters?

3. Is the problem Trump voters, or is there a deeper rot in polling?
Read 5 tweets
4 Nov
Biden winning big (it seems) in Phoenix/Maricopa County—which is roughly one-third Latino—is an important indicator that

a) there is no singular "Latino vote"
b) we should get some fascinating gender/education/generation/geographical origin breakdowns of the 2020 Latino vote
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
Let's cross our fingers, cross our toes, knock wood three-times in our lucky socks as we hang amulets around the house—as we make a voting plan!—and then, remind ourselves the 5 reasons why 2020 is really, truly different than 2016

1. In 2016, too many state pollsters whiffed on the Great Lakes states, and beyond, by failing to weight their samples by education in an election driven by the diploma divide.

In 2020, many of them have changed their methodologies to avoid that same huge, obvious mistake.
2. In 2016, there were a historically large number of undecided voters who hated both candidates, and a ton of them broke late for Trump.

In 2020, most of those voters have already decided—in large part because Biden's net approval rating is 17 points higher than Clinton's.
Read 6 tweets
22 Oct
Fantastic review by @EricLevitz of one of the most important and not-well-understood phenomena in American politics: the gender gap, which didn't technically exist before 1980 and will be higher than ever in 2020

My nutshell explanation is it's mostly about self-reinforcing changes in party polarization since 1980:

Reagan GOP moved right on key women's issues, genders sorted into parties, and the "feminization of poverty" made low-income women strong Dems.

What @EricLevitz points out, which I just didn't know, is that the gender gap is a transatlantic phenomenon. Women are moving left all over Western Europe, too.

Which raises the striking possibility that, for once, this is something we cannot blame on Ronald Reagan.
Read 5 tweets

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