Qiao Wang Profile picture
22 Nov, 3 tweets, 1 min read
My current base case is a blow-off top in the coming months somewhere between 25k and 50k (huge range obviously to illustrate the uncertainty). Not my preferred case but the institutional FOMO and the supply inelasticity make this a fairly likely scenario.
Not my preferred case because if this happens the media and the haters will once again describe BTC as a speculative mania, even after they missed out on 4 such rallies and 10000% in the past.
My preferred case is we dump 30% soon and then go up after much slower. Could happen but seems less likely.

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More from @QwQiao

23 Nov
If you are new to crypto, start with the 2008 classic - “Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system”.

bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

It’s OK if you don’t understand all of it. Neither do I. But I think it’s the best way to start your crypto journey.
If you want to learn more after that, try to understand why Bitcoin is digital gold. Here’s a good resource: casebitcoin.com/bitcoin-is
If Bitcoin as digital gold doesn’t make sense to you, dabble into Ethereum/DeFi instead. Actually, do that either way. If you are someone intellectually curious, at least one of the two will make sense to you IMO.
Read 4 tweets
21 Nov
XRP and LTC are leading BTC higher.

/s
It doesn’t matter how great the fundamentals your favorite alt has. Lead-lag relationships in markets don’t work like this. It’s always the liquid that drives the illiquid. The higher marketcap that drives the lower low marketcap.
One of the theoretical reasons is wealth effect. When the largest holding in your portfolio goes up 10% you feel richer and you buy other stuff. When the smallest holding goes up 10% you feel nothing. The biggest holding of “market portfolio” is BTC.
Read 4 tweets
19 Nov
Instead of watching in disbelief boomer institutions buying #BTC, here’s a narrative that the Ethereum crowd should consider rallying around and pushing for: “ETH - a call option on a parallel future financial system.”
These boomers all went through the rise and fall and re-rise of tech stonks. They wouldn’t want to miss even just a 10% chance of something big. Especially finance.
Bitcoin used to be called a “call option”, but it no longer is. It’s mature enough to potentially rival gold. But a “call option” is perfect for Ethereum currently. It’s young, vibrant, and risky. Calling it a “call option” shows humility, that you understand the risks.
Read 4 tweets
14 Nov
Observation: there's one asset that's shaping to be the Schelling point of DeFi.
- Fastest horse in arguably the important sector of finance -> being integrated everywhere
- Early adopters made rich -> strong community
- Little early investor sell pressure -> possible sell-side liquidity crisis
- Healthy amount of hype -> reflexively attracts capital/talent
Not financial advice. Not schilling. Just an observation.
Read 4 tweets
14 Nov
I continue to see more and more reasons why ETH could outperform BTC in the next bull run. Perhaps not on a risk-adjusted return basis, but likely on an absolute return basis.

However:
From a portfolio PoV, it may not make sense to own ETH at all. In my mind ETH is 50% BTC and 50% DeFi. So if you already own BTC, it makes sense to add DeFi. And if you already own DeFi, it makes sense to add BTC. But in either case adding ETH may not add uncorrelated returns.
When you construct a portfolio, not only do you need to think about the EV of each bet, but also whether a new addition to the portfolio is independent from existing bets. In this case, ETH may not be as independent from either BTC and DeFi.
Read 5 tweets
11 Nov
I don’t know, I feel like this “double-digit shitcoin” is on it’s way to 4 digits.
Anecdotally, I’m just seeing more and more smart people from both TradFi *and* tech who are total noobs but fascinated by Ethereum and this new parallel financial system called DeFi.
Many of them got into DeFi because of Bitcoin. Many others got into Ethereum/DeFi because they don’t understand Bitcoin. Pretty interesting dichotomy.
Read 4 tweets

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