I am increasingly concerned we are approaching what history will know as the "Dark December." With the holidays I fear we could see 50% or more of our current months in one month alone. Lets's talk about some factors.

First off is the very obvious one; Travel and get together to celebrate the holidays. We already are seeing a major influx of travelers at airports and many people planning for Thanksgiving as normal. The effect won't be seeing until a couple weeks into December.

Even with online shopping and many retailers opting to spread 'Black Friday' over weeks, we will see lots of shopping in stores in the coming weeks. Shopping could be worse than groups as you are changing the potential contact pool constantly.

Next is a strange one; This week I expect the LOWEST case numbers in weeks. This will be due to very abysmal testing numbers, and likely no testing on Thursday. Watch the positivity rate close. This week may be a silent spread.

Virus timelines. We know it can be a 14-day incubation, followed by a week until hospitalizations, and another week until deaths. So basically we may not see this week's fatalities for 3-4 weeks. Christmas could easily be a record-setting day for deaths.

Lastly is people are going to people. Whether it's wanting a normal holiday, Covid Fatigue, not understanding cases vs rates, or the unfortunate group of anti-mask/covid deniers. People will be letting their guard down this month when it's the potential for disaster.

I wish you all luck, stay vigilant. Watch the data. Avoid crowds, public spaces, and always maintain safety protocols. It is looking to be a very dire and depressing month ahead.


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