Shreyas Doshi Profile picture
Nov 23, 2020 19 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Add these 10 biases to your product team's shared vocabulary

1–Confirmation Bias
2–Fundamental Attribution Error
3–Availability Heuristic
4–Plan Continuation Bias
5–Law of Triviality
6–Curse of Knowledge
7–Law of the Instrument
8–OutcomeBias
9–Bandwagon Effect
10–Bias Blind Spot
The benefits of deeply understanding these biases & creating psychological safety for surfacing them:
- Better product decisions
- Better execution
- Happier teams

Learn more about them here:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c…
Descriptions, along with product team-specific examples of each of these biases👇🏾
1—Confirmation Bias
Interpret info/data that confirms one's preconceptions

Examples.

experiment results positive?
“yay, ship it!”
results negative?
“must be something wrong with our bucketing & analysis”

user says they need X
is X in the roadmap? yes
“we have user validation”
2—Fundamental Attribution Error
Attribute people’s behaviors to their character & justify one’s own behaviors with the situation & context

Example.

Bob: “Alice just doesnt care about users”
Also Bob: “my team's feature was buggy becos we were understaffed & under time pressure”
3—Availability Heuristic
Evaluate & decide based on data or anecdotes that can be readily recalled right now

Example.

PM: So we can do A or B. Neither option is perfect, will need to pick one
Exec: I was talking to Acme Inc last week—they’d love B & dislike A. Let’s do B
PM:👌🏾
4–Plan Continuation Bias
Unwillingness to change current plan despite new information or conditions.

Example.

PM: Apple’s launch has really changed the landscape.
Eng Mgr: We’ve already spent 6 months building this feature. I’m not going to tell my team to change course now.
5–Law of Triviality
Giving disproportionate attention to trivial issues (while ignoring big ones)

Examples.

PM Director: Product X is late by 3 weeks
Exec: I want a full report on this

Designer: Should we fix this border?
PM: Leave it in so execs can give that feedback to us
6–The Curse of Knowledge
People assume that others have the same knowledge & expertise as them

Example.

PM Director: "I just wish our teams would prioritize smarter & use common sense"
The said teams: "we don’t understand what these goals & activity are all adding up to"
7–Law of the Instrument
If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail

Examples.

Eng Mgr: we followed the standard process, it isn't our fault that there were PR issues

PM: we launched feature X with similar uplift, so we must launch feature Y too for consistency
8–Outcome Bias
Judging the quality of a decision or quality of work by its outcome

Examples.

Eng Mgr: we’ve never done pre-mortems & things have turned out fine. I don’t see the need for one

Promo committee: revenue is through the roof, we should promote Bob despite the snags
9–Bandwagon Effect
Conforming with the majority's beliefs, customs, behaviors

Example.

PM Dir: "I didn't agree with the CEO's decision but I could tell from the body language in that meeting that I was the only one, so it didn't make sense for me to push back"
Eng Dir: "Me too"
10–Bias Blind Spot
Seeing oneself as less biased than others

Example.

Carol (PM): "that team should have nixed their project much earlier. fell prey to sunk cost fallacy"
Also Carol: "progress is slow, but we need to continue investing here so we can see results next year"
Which of these biases do I personally suffer from?

All of them.

Most notably:
Confirmation Bias (almost daily)
Availability Heuristic (almost weekly)
Fundamental Attribution Error (at least once a month)
Curse of Knowledge (5 yrs ago, almost daily)
Bias Blind Spot (not sure)
Dealing with these biases is a bit like meditation.

Goal of meditation isn't to stop all thought.

It's to observe that thinking is happening.

Similarly, we can't stop biased thinking.

But by understanding them well & giving them names, we can observe biases when they appear.
Related resources👇🏾
This thread was about biases that affect our decision-making as a product person or a product team.

Here are the biases that your users & customers are likely to have—understand these biases so you can build better products for them:
A mega-thread / crash course on the 7 team cognitive biases that lead to unsuccessful products

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More from @shreyas

Jun 27
Since time immemorial, when a CEO asks a PM at Product Review, “what do you need to 10X users/revenue?”, “what will make you go faster?”, etc

The PM steadfastly responds “We need [N] more engineers”. The Eng Mgr nods approvingly

A story thread, with some hard truths to swallow:


Image
Image
Image
Image
“More engineers” will usually *not* solve your problems.

Because the real problem is often a strategy problem, culture problem, interpersonal problem, trust problem, creativity problem, or market problem.

More engineers *will* solve your “I don’t have enough engineers” problem. Image
When you finally manage to get more eng headcount, things will usually get worse before they get better.

Management will now expect your team’s immediate output to be in proportion with this new headcount, not with your current staffing.

Not fair, but such is life in product 🤷🏽‍♂️Image
Read 23 tweets
Mar 30, 2023
Product life in midsized & large companies starts making a lot more sense when you understand that a large % of middle & upper management thinks their main job is to (i) try & decipher what the CEO wants done (ii) align their org with it (iii) propose a plan that the CEO approves
This is instead of *often* telling the CEO what actually needs to be done, in a way that is grounded in (a) deep insight into customers & market (b) creative product & GTM solutions

Many in middle & upper management will of course blame incentives set by the company for this.
And they are not wrong. But it is worth evaluating how much of one’s career (and life) one wants to spend in aligning perfectly with incentives set by another party.

20% or 50% or 70% or 90% or 99% or 100%?

What is your answer?
Read 6 tweets
Mar 7, 2023
Those who don’t understand the great value of instinct call it luck.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 3, 2023
Everything we create, everything we do, it all starts with our thinking

Clear thinking drastically improves odds of success in all departments of career & life

While clear thinking is quite rare, it can be developed with practice

Advanced principles for clear thinking:

(1/12)
1) Essence first. Not story. Not analogy

Most people get seduced by great analogies & exciting stories.

Clear thinkers don’t *form* their thinking via analogies. They identify the essence of the issue, in their specific context. Then, they use analogies as one of their inputs.
2) WAYRTTD

“What Are You _Really_ Trying To Do” is a simple but powerful tool to make you pause & identify your real goal

Most people move too quickly to How & When to do a given task. But the task isn’t the goal

Clear thinkers have built a habit of asking themselves WAYRTTD.
Read 19 tweets
Feb 23, 2023
Apple Pie Position:
A statement that instantly elevates the person who is saying it and is simultaneously hard for anyone else to push back on, and so everyone avoids the personal risk and just nods “yes”, even though its actual value in this specific situation might be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Okay, so now that you understand Apple Pie, here’s your crash course on dealing with Apple Pie:

1) The greatest thing about Apple Pie Positions is that you now have a name to assign to a complex behavior (and it is a cute name, which helps a lot). Once you share this idea with… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
One other important thing:

Note that Apple Pie Positions are, by definition, specific to the context. This means that the same sentence can be either the right thing to focus on, or it can be an Apple Pie Position. The way you determine which is which is through good judgment.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 17, 2023
Which book would sell more copies?

Business (auto)biography 1:
Failure 1, Failure 2, Hit rock bottom, Success 1, Failure 3, Wild success

Business (auto)biography 2:
Mild success, Major success, Mild failure, Mild challenges, Wild success

(Wild success being the same in both)
Now, imagine you must choose to live one of these lives.

Which one would you choose?

(note: you *must* choose one of these, you have no other option)

(think & be honest to yourself)

(this is a thought experiment for you only, so pick one, don’t reply with “it depends”)
After you’ve answered both questions (and seen the both poll results), share what if anything one might conclude from this.

You can make it finely granular (e.g. what you conclude about yourself) or coarsely granular (e.g. what you conclude about society/media/critical thinking)
Read 4 tweets

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