John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Nov 24, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
From today’s @ONS data we can state that week ending Nov 23 had 1,904 more deaths than the 5-year average

"But were they caused by Covid or lockdown?"
2,366 deaths involved Covid

"But did they die *of* Covid, or just *with* it?"
Covid was the underlying cause of death for 2,056
In other words, there are substantial excess deaths, and they were ~all caused by Covid-19

In fact, deaths caused by Covid are 152 *more than* total excess, suggesting the mild flu season (due in part to social distancing) is reducing other deaths and thus the overall excess
Indeed, deaths caused by flu or pneumonia have been around 100 below the 5-year average for the last couple of weeks fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports…
"But you haven’t adjusted the historical average for population growth"

No, but an actual actuary (@longevitymatt) has:

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More from @jburnmurdoch

Mar 7
NEW: The actions of Trump and Vance in recent weeks highlight something under-appreciated.

The American right is now ideologically closer to countries like Russia, Turkey and in some senses China, than to the rest of the west (even the conservative west). Image
In the 2000s, US Republicans thought about the world in similar ways to Britons, Europeans, Canadians.

This made for productive relationships regardless of who was in the White House.

The moderating layers around Trump #1 masked the divergence, but with Trump #2 it’s glaring. Image
In seven weeks Trump’s America has shattered decades-long western norms and blindsided other western leaders with abrupt policy changes.

This is because many of the values of Trump’s America are not the values of western liberal democracies.

My column: ft.com/content/304601…
Read 5 tweets
Feb 24
NEW: updated long-run gap in voting between young men and women in Germany:

The gender gap continues to widen, but contrary to what is often assumed, young men continue to vote roughly in line with the overall population, while young women have swung very sharply left. Image
Here’s my original analysis from last year: ft.com/content/29fd9b…
The key stats:

Young men’s AfD vote is somewhat higher than the national average (25% vs 21%), but their leftwing vote is also above average (15 vs 9).

Whereas young women’s AfD vote is significantly lower than average (14 vs 21), and leftwing vote far higher (34 vs 9).
Read 4 tweets
Nov 8, 2024
My wish for the next election is that poll trackers look like the one on the right 👉 not the left

This was yet another election where the polling showed it could easily go either way, but most of the charts just showed two nice clean lines, one leading and one trailing. Bad! Image
Pollsters and poll aggregators have gone to great lengths to emphasise the amount of uncertainty in the polls in recent weeks...

But have generally still put out charts and polling toplines that encourage people to ignore the uncertainty and focus on who’s one point ahead. Bad!
The thing about human psychology is, once you give people a nice clean number, it doesn’t matter how many times you say "but there’s an error margin of +/- x points, anything is possible".

People are going to anchor on that central number. We shouldn’t enable this behaviour!
Read 11 tweets
Nov 7, 2024
We’re going to hear lots of stories about which people, policies and rhetoric are to blame for the Democrats’ defeat.

Some of those stories may even be true!

But an underrated factor is that 2024 was an absolutely horrendous year for incumbents around the world 👇 Image
Harris lost votes, Sunak lost votes, Macron lost votes, Modi (!) lost votes, as did the Japanese, Belgian, Croatian, Bulgarian and Lithuanian governments in elections this year.

Any explanation that fails to take account for this is incomplete.

More here ft.com/content/e8ac09…
Did Biden hold on too long?

Has progressive politics alienated some Hispanic and Black men?

Yes and yes, but taking action to address those issues probably wouldn’t have produced a fundamentally different outcome.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 18, 2024
The recent political polarisation of Silicon Valley is really striking.

25 years ago most big tech and VC execs were moderates. Then the whole sector shifted gradually leftwards up until 2020, and now suddenly we have a sharp divide into Democrat-backers and Trump backers. Image
Chart is from my column this week exploring how the politics of corporate bosses have evolved over time ft.com/content/29426c…
Thanks to a brilliant new analysis from @reillysteel, we know the overall shift has been towards the left, but there are lots of other interesting things going on beneath the surface too Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 15, 2024
“The NHS has too many managers” latest
Many of the NHS’s difficulties can be traced back to the deep cuts in manager numbers.

Fixing this doesn’t just unblock waiting lists, it also gives doctors more time to be doctors, and alleviates the stress and poor morale that come from having to do things that aren’t your job Image
Here’s another fun NHS low hanging fruit example:

A trial last year found that by running two operating theatres side by side, they cut the time between operations from 40 minutes to 2, and were able to do a week’s worth of surgeries in one day thetimes.com/uk/article/lon…Image
Read 5 tweets

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