What most people miss in the debate about whether masks work at an individual level, is that we'd better hope they don't. Mask mandates have been enforced in many places. If masks work, basic epidemiology predicts that they will cause Covid mortality to worsen. Here's why: 1/5
The logic finds a precise analogy in the epidemiological impact of lockdowns. 2/5
Herd immunity is an inevitable outcome of any strategy. Once it's attained, we are left with a group that is not exposed. Minimising harm involves making sure the unexposed group contains as many of the vulnerable as possible. See this elegant model. 3/5
The strategy that achieves that involves reducing spread among the vulnerable while NOT reducing it among the non-vulnerable, which is to say, the vast majority. This is what focused protection is about. Yet general lockdowns & mask mandates, if they work, do the opposite. 4/5
If you're not a vulnerable person, every success you achieve in shielding yourself and others like you from the virus shifts the burden onto a granny somewhere out there. Don't put grandma "at the front of the bus". 5/5 @PanData19

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More from @NickHudsonCT

30 Nov
What is @PanData19's agenda? It's well framed by our basic tenets on lockdown:

1. Lockdowns run contrary to pre-Covid science, which consistently advised against quarantining the healthy under any circumstances, particularly because they entail devastating collateral damage.
2. Basic epidemiology predicts that, in the face of age-graduated mortality, which Covid demonstrates, general lockdown will cause worse mortality outcomes than doing nothing, which will in turn be worse than focused protection, advocated by the Great Barrington Declaration.
3. It is therefore not surprising to find in the data that lockdown stringency is not associated with reduced Covid mortality.

4. Sustaining a policy that negates pre-Covid science and the emergent experience, and which entails phenomenal collateral damage, is madness.
Read 7 tweets
29 Nov
South Africa’s State of Disaster has provided the legal air cover for what has surely been the worst public health policy in history. We managed to achieve, simultaneously, among the world’s worst age-based Covid mortality, the deepest and most permanent economic damage,... 1/6
... & the most corruption along the way. The eschewing of pre-Covid science, modelling atrocities, pseudoscientific school closures & mask mandates, testing orgies & service denial that have featured in other countries’ embarrassments were present, but we added local colour. 2/6
We threw in bans on sales of online products, open-toed shoes, hot chickens, t-shirts (other than as undergarments!); shambolic data; alcohol & cigarette bans that saw illegal industries mushroom overnight; and race-based financial assistance. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
20 Nov
The claptrap has scaled new heights. Few can forget the farce of the @WHO’s 8 June reversal on cloth mask effectiveness. This was unaccompanied by any evidence and occurred on the same day that the @WHO’s Chief Scientist, … 1/12
theguardian.com/world/2020/jun…
… Maria van Kerkhove, confessed that asymptomatic transmission was very rare, in the process invalidating the entire point of mask mandates. The WHO went short science & long politics, forcing poor Maria to say that asymptomatic transmission was common—in models, of course! 2/12
Now, five months later and @hans_kluge, Regional Director of WHO Europe, raises the bar, saying 95% mask-wearing would be as effective as lockdown, on the same day that the 1st randomized control trial on masks revealed no significant benefit. 3/12
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Read 12 tweets
20 Nov
“Don’t increase the amount of testing. It is a pathology all of its own and must be stamped out be right-thinking people.” Quite right, @MichaelYeadon3.
Youtube deleted the video. Here's a Facebook link. I recommend this highly. As you listen, contemplate why this would contradict any editorial policy. People need to wake up from this catatonic drift into tyranny. m.facebook.com/plugins/video.…
And here's a bit chute link. bitchute.com/video/b1pNnQGP…
Read 4 tweets
19 Nov
Strange days. No word of a lie here, and the attack came from those “follow the science” types too.
If you believe in “the science”, “consensus science” or the existence of “scientific authorities”, you don’t believe in science or even know what it is or how it works.
You are also condemned to being unable to spot when your pet dogmas are refuted by reality, and prone to resort to name-calling and ad hominem attack. If you’ve ever used the term “Covid denier” or “Covidiot”, I’m talking about you.
Read 4 tweets
7 Nov
Replies to @mlipsitch: I listened to your exchange with Prof. Jay Bhattacharya regarding the Great Barrington Declaration. You're operating under several delusions. 1/12
There is no signal in the data that lockdowns do anything significant to reduce spread. Mortality rates are uncorrelated with stringency and second derivative death curves show no regime change. 2/12
Even if they worked, general lockdowns shift the burden onto the vulnerable because they reduce the mobility of the non-vulnerable disproportionately, putting the vulnerable at the “front of the bus”. 3/12
Read 12 tweets

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