Kirtan A Shah, CFP® Profile picture
Dec 4, 2020 18 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Yes Bank’s additional Tier 1 bonds, written off. Lakshmi Villas Banks Tier 2 bonds, written off. Understand what & why of ATI and Tier 2 bonds in this thread.

Do ‘re-tweet’ and help us benefit more investors (1/n)
As a bank, you are in the business of borrowing & lending where the difference in the rate is the banks profit. So if the bank borrows under savings account, current account, FD etc at an average of 6% & lends at 8%, the difference of 2% is the banks profit. (2/n)
But there is a problem here,

If 100 is borrowed by the bank & 100 is lent & assuming there is a 10% NPA, the deposit holders will lose 10% of their deposits which is not a good sign and RBI surely does not like it (3/n)
To avoid this, banks r expected to invest their own capital + raise risk capital from the market. Risk capital is when the investor knows there is capital/investment risk like Equity & AT1 bonds etc. (4/n)
So now if 80% is deposits & assuming 20% is risk capital & 10% NPA takes place, the 10% will be a loss borne by the risk capital holders/investors & not the deposit holders. That’s the basic premise of running a bank. (5/n)
What is this risk capital requirement 4 the banks?

Banks r expected to maintain a minimum 11.5% capital adequacy ratio (CAR). This means that vs the lending the banks do, the banks will have to maintain a minimum 11.5% capital to be able to manage any NPA situation. (6/n)
The riskier the lending the bank does, the lower will the CAR ratio become and hence higher the need to raise more capital. This is to make sure banks don't lent recklessly and if they do, they need to keep bringing in more capital (7/n)
The 11.5% CAR is broken down as below,

1.Tier 1 Capital – requirement is 9.5%
a)Common Equity Tier 1 - requirement is 8%
b)Additional Tier 1 - requirement is 1.5%

2.Tier 2 Capital requirement is 2% (8/n)
(1) Tier 1 capital – requirement is 9.5% & further broken down into 2,
a. Common Equity Tier 1 capital – This is the capital mainly raised by issuing shares. This includes shareholders equity + Reserves & Surplus. Minimum requirement is 8% (9/n)
b. Additional Tier 1 capital – This is the capital raised by issuing perpetual bonds/AT1 bonds (Yes Bank case). This can form part of the remaining 1.5% requirement (9.5% - 8%) (10/n)
If the bank keeps making losses, this capital will be at risk and will keep coming down and hence more capital will need to be raised either by selling equity of the bank or by issuing AT1 bonds (11/n)
(2) Tier II capital – Requirement is 2%

This is raised by issuing Tier 2 bonds (Lakshmi Villas Bank). In case of liquidation of a bank, this capital will be at risk. (12/n)
Whats the risk in AT1 bonds?

First lets understand how does the AT1 bond work – Here’s an older thread on the same - (13/n)
a. Banks can skip paying the coupon if either, the bank is making losses & does nt have reserves 2 pay 4m or the banks common equity tier 1 capital falls below the minimum 8% requirement. This will nt b considered a default neither does it get accumulated 2b paid next year(14/n)
(b) Banks will write off the principal if the common equity tier 1 capital falls below 6.125% (15/n) Image
Whats the risk in Tier 2 bonds (Lakshmi Villas Banks case)?

Banks can write off Tier 2 bonds if the common equity tier 1 capital falls below 4% (16/n) Image
Suggestion to investors?

These products are not FD replacement. They are meant for sophisticated investors who understand the risk and can track the CAR, CET1 and profitability ratios of the banks. Don’t get carried away with the higher yields they offer. (17/18)
For a detailed analysis, please click the link to read our article by @stepbystep888. And do re-tweet if you like the content :)

fpa.edu.in/blog/perpetual… (**End**)

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More from @KirtanShahCFP

Mar 5
RBI is getting very active & making sure it is supporting the market much faster than it has in the past

RBI announced 2 things,
- 1,00,000 cr of OMO
- 87,000 cr of USD/INR Swap

Let me explain what it means in this 🧵 (1/4)
Liquidity in the banking sector is under serious stress. On the 4th of March the liquidity deficit was ~20K cr. Liquidity has been deficit because of,

- Tax Outflows (Taking money out from the bank)
- Heavy Selling by FII’s (Taking money back)
- Lower government spending (Not receiving more rupees in the market)
- RBI Selling $ in the market (sucking out rupee liquidity) (2/4)
To increase liquidity in the banking sector, RBI is doing OMO + Currency Swaps.

(1) 1,00,000 cr of OMO

- OMO means open market operations
- In this the RBI will buy bonds (Treasury Bills) from the banks before the maturity & give banks a 1L cr of liquidity before it matures
- This will increase the rupee liquidity in the market (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 12
Let me tell you a story of the most brutal correction in India, it was the dot com bubble. Not only because markets corrected 54% but also because it lasted for 19 months.

Lets see what an SIP investor would have experienced (1/6)
If you were very smart & started your 25,000 SIP at the exact BOTTOM of the market cycle in Sep 2001 from where the correction ended & markets started going up & you stayed invested till Dec 2024, you would have invested 70 L over 280 months & today that would have become 5.50 cr. at the actual market returns. (2/6)
BUT, lets say you were unlucky & started at the TOP of the market cycle in Feb 2000 from where the 54% market correction started but stayed invested till Dec 2024, you would have invested 74.75 L over 299 months & today that would have become 6.70 cr at the actual market returns. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Feb 11
What’s happening with Gold & what should you do? A quick 🧵

Gold has been going up because of these 4 reasons,

(1) US trade war
(2) Central bank buying
(3) Rupee Depreciation
(4) Falling rates (1/n)
(1) US Trade War - There is policy uncertainty because of this. China, Mexico & Canada form close to 40% of America's trade partnership. Trade war leads to a risk off environment (people are scared to take risk in equity) + increase in inflation (as imports from China, Mexico & Canada becomes expensive). This led to Gold going up (2/n)
(2) Central Bank Buying - Post sanctions by US / G7 on Russia, central banks buying Gold & trying to reduce US dollar as reserves is increasing (De Dollarisation). Just the last Quarter, Central Banks bought 333 T of Gold (3/n)
Read 7 tweets
Nov 6, 2024
Bond markets are expecting higher inflation with trump winning & hence the yields are going up, not a good sign for India equity. Let me explain (1/4) Image
(1) If Trump increases duty, it is inflationary as the imports will become costly & hence yields are going up

(2) If trump reduces corporate taxes, it means more stress on the government finances, more borrowings & hence higher yields (2/4)
While FED main continue to lower rates, the rate cut cycle will reduce in an inflationary situation. Remember FED can only impacts the shorter end of the curve with rate cuts. The longer end of the curve is market determined & hence the yields are up because markets feel inflation is coming back with Trump (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Dec 13, 2023
Continuing our Mutual Fund educational series, here’s the 4th 🧵 in the series,

Topic - “Everything you need to know about Mutual Fund Taxation”
 
Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educated more retail investors (1/13) Image
If you prefer watching a video instead, here’s a link to the 15 minute detailed video on the same topic -
 
Do subscribe & hit the bell icon to get notified everytime we post an educational video (2/13)
In Mutual Fund taxation, you first have to be able to classify your fund either as,
 
(a) Fund investing less than 35% in Equity - This fund will get Debt Taxation

(b) Fund investing between 35% - 64% in Equity - This fund will get Debt + Indexation Taxation

(c) Fund investing 65% & more in Equity - This fund will get Equity Taxation (3/13)
Read 13 tweets
Dec 7, 2023
Continuing our Mutual Fund Education Series, here’s the 3rd thread; this will demystify the Hybrid Mutual Fund categories for you.
 
Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educate more investors to make the right investing decisions (1/9)
(Q1) What are Hybrid Funds?
 
Hybrid funds are funds, which invest in multiple asset classes like
- Equity
- Debt
- Gold
- Preference Shares
- REITs & InvITs

With an objective to reduce volatility (vs pure equity funds) & try an generate better risk adjusted returns (2/9)
(Q2) Types of Hybrid Funds?
 
- Conservative Hybrid Fund
- Balanced Hybrid Fund
- Aggressive Hybrid Fund
- Dynamic Asset Allocation (DAAF) or Balanced Advantage Fund (BAF)
- Multi Asset Allocation Fund
- Arbitrage Fund
- Equity Savings Fund (3/9) Image
Read 9 tweets

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