Thread by @_fruchtose

Hello San Francisco. I'm attending a meeting of the Haight-Ashbury Neighborhood Council. David Woo is MCing. Christin Evans will present on the Haight Street Neighborhood Commercial District, and Calvin Welch will present how the Haight voted.

hanc-sf.org/24-home/586-ho…

Christin is now presenting.

Christin: I had an idea for this recovery plan. I'm also going to highlights from the shopping survey and start a dialogue about it.

Evans: I started worrying about Haight St vacancies in. 2016. A number of storefronts weren't being marketed, left vacant for long periods of time, so I started counting vacancies between Stanyan and Central.

2016: 9 vacancies, 6%
2020 (Feb): 21 vac/14%
2020 (Dec): 31 vac/21%

Evans: The building which used to have a toy shop and shoe repair shop has had vacancies since 2015, now at 4 openings. We had problems pre-COVID, but economic circumstances has caused more stores to close. Some business owners have chosen to retire, others lost income.

Evans: The landlord of Loved to Death was being difficult about giving the store a break, despite the lack of foot traffic. Ten businesses have closed since COVID, including Haight-Ashbury T-shirts. But in good news, 4 have opened since, including Higher Consciousness.

Evans: Some of the openings have been opportunistic. Buffalo Exchange was able to expand into a neighboring storefront.

Evans: I've been tracking storefronts on a spreadsheet and shared this with the City.

Evans: We've seen Haight St rents increase 2x-3x since I arrived. It's also very hard to find and retain local employees due to high rents they have to pay. And there's been ongoing construction. It contributed to the closure of Haight-Ashbury Music Center.

Evans: And seismic retrofits have created a number of vacancies, and a number of store owners have retired.

Evans: There's a program been created by the City to support worker cooperatives. We could see storefronts filled with businesses using it.

[Seems to be an issue with the slide deck display.]

Evans: We see the light at the end of the tunnel for construction. Public realm plan will end in Spring 2021. New sidewalk, pedestrian-scale lights, trees, street furniture, bike racks, garbage cans, etc. will make the street attractive.

Livable City conducted this survey at the behest of the City. They've cautioned that the data may change, so take this with a giant grain of salt. Survey markers indicate places results were collected.

Evans: The survey was planned prior to the pandemic, so questions were added about how COVID-19 has impacted behavior. Not all shopping patterns were changed. A number of respondents were satisfied with neighborhood shops. Many were concerned about rising costs.

Evans: Many people from Cole Valley took the survey, so the results show concern about safety. People mentioned visible homelessness as a concern.

Evans: The main thrust of the survey was identifying businesses needed for Haight St. People wanted more cafes; art supplies—not sure if people like/are aware of Mendel's; pharmacy—e.g. inside Gus's; post office—we have one, but maybe people value it?

Calvin Welch interrupts to suggest, "Maybe people don't know it's there!"

Evans: Nightlife was another mention.

Evans is taking a question: Do you have data if the loss of business in the Haight is typical or unique in SF?

Evans: It's typical of North Beach and Castro. My theory is these neighborhoods have high prices for storefronts due to high foot traffic, including from tourists.

Evans: If you're a real estate person and you want to buy a building, they'll advertise that it's a landmark neighborhood. It's attractive to international investors, not just local businesses. Haight, Fillmore, Castro have seen more speculative purchases and skyrocketing rents.

Q: Which City agencies are doing these surveys? It seems like the survey was only available to people with a cell phone.

Evans: I don't the survey will decide all future community investments. We need conversations like this with HANC.

Evans: I think beyond identifying possible needed businesses, we need to address vacancies—we could have 40 or 50 by the end of the pandemic [up to 33% vacancy rate in the commercial corridor]. We could identify 4-5 neighborhood serving businesses we'd like to see move in.

Evans: All these creative opportunities exist now. Someone previously mentioned a community 3D printing store. We can put together a data package to show what stores people want, possibly crowdsource funding, help landlords recruit businesses, things like that.

Evans: I think we'll have to go back to the vacancy tax to motivate landlords, since the City suspended it.

Evans: With the recovery, we'll have the opportunity not to lean into formula retail and loosening zoning restrictions, but to explore solutions like a community land trust.

Someone's asking about the construction work.

Evans: There were a number of gas and sewer leaks which led to the termination of a subcontractor. And businesses have reported 10%-30% decline in business due to intensive construction at some points.

Q: You said maybe 40–50 businesses will close. Is there any way to proactively avoid the closures?

A: With shelter-in-place in March, we pulled together to help merchants. But certain landlords would not budge or wanted a vacancy [so they could raise rent for a new business].

Evans: Most landlords have been flexible, allowing for delayed rent payments or temporary sales-based rents. We've been sharing best practices with one another. But some businesses about to close, COVID-19 was the last straw.

Evans: Bars have been hit hard because they're required to serve food. Some bars were able to add food, others were able to do cocktail delivery with food. But the level of sales is nowhere near where it was before.

Evans: The BOS has passed a commercial eviction moratorium, and Supervisor Peskin has proposed giving businesses 1-2 years to pay back rent.

Q: Perhaps there's a need for non-commercial use of space—like a popup—maybe by the supervisorial presence or another agency—to provide City information. It could be a storefront or a protected bulletin board for things like eviction protections or unemployment insurance.

Jen Snyder: That's a good idea

Q: What's the status of the vacancy tax?

A: That prop passed containing a provision for the Board to delay it, and they've chosen to do that.

Q: I think it would be good to have a place like Club Deluxe come back. And some restaurants/bars have operated in parklets, like Milk bar.

A: The California ABC surprised us by loosening restrictions to allow for takeout and allow for outdoor dining temporarily.

Evans: I'm going to add thoughts I've heard today to this presentation. I'm collecting suggestions in the back of the deck.

David Woo: Supervisor Preston's office is here and will give a couple updates.

Jen Snyder: Thanks. Preston Kilgore is also here. We have 2 new fellows in Dean's office working on things Haight-related to make sure the neighborhood gets the attention it deserves.

Snyder: We're doing office hours on Wednesday from 1–2. I'll drop in a link. This month we're doing power washing 2x/month on Haight St, and DPW is relaunching a program called Clean Corridors with power washing and litter removal.

Office hours link: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regist…

David Woo: Now Calvin Welch will present.

Welch: Hi folks. These are the three areas we'll go over: Panhandle, Flats, and Hills.

Welch: These areas have patterns have been consistent over the years. Panhandle could be called liberal. Flatlands could be characterized as progressive. Hills precincts are moderate. But that only manifests in "intensity of vote" for candidates.

Welch: This is a Haight-Ashbury definition of liberal/progressive/moderate compared to other parts of the City/state. H-A is to SF in voting patterns as SF is to California. "We're the most San Francisco area of San Francisco."

Welch:

Panhandle turnout was 89%
Flatlands turnout was 88%
Hills turnout was 92%

Panhandle and Hills cast a similar number of votes.

Welch: I was so staggered by the increase in the Trump vote. It's the canary in the coal mine. Democrats have no platform. The Democratic Party is at a critical point, and only Donald Trump unified the party. Without him, Biden are going to have to do better to win.

Welch: "This is a manifestation by a fellow by the name of Chris Arvins [sic]." Staggering to me is the Mission and Tenderloin—"this is where poor people are" and more voted for Trump in 2020 than they did in 2016.

Welch: This also happened in the Excelsior, Ingleside, and Western Addition. It's really remarkable.

Welch: The D5 candidates were the same in 2019 and 2020, with the difference being massive turnout. Preston's votes increased by over 1K in the Flatlands, and even in the Hill precincts—which he narrowly lost—his vote picked up since 2019.

Welch: This is the third time Dean ran. It's important to remember that in 2016 Dean got the 2nd highest number of votes in the City. He got similar numbers of votes in the Flats/Hills in 2016 and 2020. There's a remarkable difference that turnout makes.

Welch: HANC doesn't take positions on candidates, but we do on ballot measures. "This year, we went crazy" and took positions on many ballot measure. On all but one ballot measure [Prop H], our views were reflected in the district.

Welch: I'm not saying HANC is this electoral juggernaut—that we'll bend the voters of the district to our will—that's not how we roll at all. But it's clear HANC's membership reflects where Haight-Ashbury is.

Welch: The striking shift was in the state measures. The state rejected the Haight-Ashbury's vote, the San Francisco vote. There's a very serious disconnect in the state Democratic Party and state Democratic voters.

Welch: This chart shows "how very San Franciscan we are."

Welch: These are the 2 ballot props which received the most money from commercial interests. Uber and Lyft sponsored Prop 22. Prop I received the most opposition money.

Welch: Haight-Ashbury went overwhelmingly no on 22 and yes on I—exact reverse of where the money went. "That's the Haight-Ashbury that I know."

Welch: We do have a great deal in common with Cole Valley, which is always very interesting to me.

That's the last slide. He's now taking questions.

Q: Difference between the state Democratic Party and the voters—is this a new trend? Why is it happening?

A: It was shocking to me that affirmative action did so poorly at the state level. Most astounding was Prop 22.

Welch: It's important to understand that Newsom was used against 22 and for both the affirmative action measure and the other shocking measure, the defeat of the Prop 13 measure [Prop 15].

Welch: This means Newsom has no coattails. CA had huge turnout but couldn't figure out how to campaign.

Welch: Mainstream Democratic politicians are pushing "high-density, market-rate development" believed to be in communities of color a "gentrification accelerator." Voters rejected that. The Democratic Party lost 4/7 Congressional seats it picked up in 2018.

Bruce Wolfe: Even though we lost 4 seats in OC area, Democrats overwhelmingly got elected, but all these ballot initiatives failed. Why?

Welch: You have to ask, which Democrats? The Chronicle was no on I, no on Dean and virtually all the revenue measures, but those won.

Welch: I think the Democratic Party made a tactical mistake by not campaigning. I was stunned to realize there were huge hundred-car parades in the Central Valley for Trump, and nothing Democratic. Democrats hurt themselves with a passive stance.

Q: Does this cement SF's and Haight-Ashbury's grip on the "kook capital" award? [Not sure if I missed something?]

A: Jen Snyder can talk about the field campaign that Dean ran. I know there was a broad community coalition on the revenue measures.

Welch: There was a real grassroots campaign on revenue measures and progressive supervisors. I've been doing this longer than I'd care to admit, and the socio-economic status of the Haight-Ashbury has been totally transformed.

Welch: [Haight-Ashbury] was a moderate-to-low-income neighborhood when I moved in with 30% African-American population. It's now the second whitest neighborhood in the City. I can't explain it in any meaningful way. "The population changes, but the buildings remain the same."

[This applies on a number of levels.]

Welch: The Sunset has totally transformed its ethnic base. It's gone from majority white to Chinese. But the voting patterns remain the same.

Christin Evans: There's a book that shows people move where they share certain values.

Welch: I've heard that theory as well and I think it bears water. "If you can buy a place in the Haight-Ashbury, you can afford to live anywhere in San Francisco." People move to the neighborhood for the values. I'd love to talk about it more.

Daivd Woo: You talked about the increase in the Trump vote—will it have an impact on local elections?

Welch: It's not nothing. I'm not sure what it means. When you look at Philadelphia, Miami, NYC, SF, Seattle—every major city saw a stark increase in the Trump vote since 2016.

Welch: And that largely happened in communities of color. Exit polling was the least accurate it's ever been, because nobody was at the polls. The overwhelming majority of votes happened at the polls.

Welch: There's significant unease in urban areas with the national Democratic party. We are facing an historic destruction of urban transit across the country. Can you have SF without Muni? Can you have NYC without the subway?

Welch: But you never hear Nancy Pelosi or Joe Biden talk about transit and the collapse of the urban transit system. The Chronicle's frontpage says we'll have robot cars—really? That's going to replace transit?

Welch: People who can't work from home are dependent on transit. It's astounding that a party that claims to stand for working-class people and people of color is silent on the collapse of transit. London Breed and Gavin Newsom haven't acknowledged the problem.

Welch: We're told Supervisor Wiener has introduced a new TOD program in Sacramento. They'll go through a kabuki play again of TOD when we don't have transit. "Have you heard Supervisor Wiener or David. Chiu open his mouth on transit?"

Welch: What was Barack Obama's position on transit? On affordable housing? On public housing? On employment? Every major transit system in the US is unionized w/ good healthcare and retirement benefits, and no Democratic is talking about preserving them.

Welch: What elected Biden was the vote in the suburbs. I think the Democratic party is in serious difficulties, and they'll have to start acting in a way they haven't heretofore. They almost lost Congress and barely gained in the Senate. Leadership hasn't changed.

Welch: I think we could see Donald Trump in 2024. I'm serious, folks. The only thing that saved our ass was Donald Trump's stupidity. He's the only thing that unified the Democrats. He's gone. I think they have to develop urban and rural programs + talk about working people.

Welch: What is Gavin Newsom's vaccination program? To rely on the county. What is San Francisco's program? Does anyone know? That's what Gavin Newsom is relying on. Walgreens has announced a program. Does SFDPH have one? Does California have one?

Welch: Does anyone remember the rollout of Obamacare? It blew up. The website crashed. It was two months before anyone could enroll. "Too cool for school" Obama couldn't put together a website. It was political incompetence.

Welch: I guarantee the vaccination program will rely on counties, half of whom are in open rebellion on closure policies. I don't see the Democratic party rising to the challenge. The vote on Trump is a leading indicator of unease with state/national party programs.

Welch: Look for these things in the net 6–12 months: how the vaccination program goes, and transit. If vaccinations are as effed up as testing is—how many San Franciscans have been tested?

Welch: SFDPH's website shows million tests. Are people getting tested repeatedly? Scott Wiener has been tested three times. The Warriors proposed a plan to reopen with instant testing. Do you know you can't get a test in SF without an appointment?

Welch: That there's only one test site open in SF on the weekends? Do you know that the Mission has north of a 10% positivity rate, while the rest of SF is 0.3%?

Welch: the Pfizer tests have to be kept extremely cold. We'll be distributing them in the summer in the middle of fire season. Is the Governor ready for that? I think this is a big test.

Jen Snyder from the D5 office commenting on vaccines in the chat:

Q: This doesn't bode well for the recall of the governor, which is halfway to meeting the signature requirement. What are the chances of that happening?

Welch: I think it goes up every day. The pushback against closing playgrounds illustrates where we are as a state.

Welch: If the only response of the state is to tell everyone to stay at home... I can't even begin to get into unemployment. Six million people haven't gotten a check and there are 9 county DAs saying people are defrauding the state.

Welch: If there's another hiccup, say in vaccination, Gavin Newsom could well be recalled.

Q: Many of these discussions could have happened or could be happening. I don't know where this is being publicly discussed in such a place where discussions are happening. Any comments from Calvin?

Welch: I don't think we've been well-served by the print media. Mission Local and 48 Hills have limited resources but they're trying. It's not what the Chronicle covers that's distressing so much as what they don't cover.

Welch: Take unemployment. There's a Chronicle economic columnist that can be good, but the news doesn't cover 200K unemployed San Francisco. They'll run a gotcha story on the French Laundry but won't do a hard story on transit/unemployment that's all Gavin Newsom.

David Woo: We have to keep supporting local news. And HANC puts out a monthly newsletter which is a good source of information for me. Thanks for the presentation and answering questions. I learned a lot. That wraps up our monthly meeting. Thanks Christin and Jen.

That's it for me. Happy Hanukkah.