Profit-takers initiated weeks ago, we need to wait until they exhaust before there's full freedom to explore new highs.
It's a waiting game, likely until Jan 2021 for a full reset.
Till then beware of bull traps.
SOPR by @renato_shira is a lie-proof "survey of investors to determine their profit or loss for the coins that transacted in a day". We like to use SOPR because all investors lie about their losses and on-chain guys like smart sounding acronyms.
More details here:
Once SOPR starts declining, profit taking begets profit taking. We wait until all investors in profit who are going to sell to complete their sell off, when this happens, coins moving no longer carry profit, SOPR goes to 1.0, and we can move forward. ETA January perhaps.
Is it possible for SOPR not to reset? Yes, that's the grandma telling me to buy BTC signal.
I've used eSOPR in this analysis which is @glassnode's improvement over the original SOPR by viewing only coins moving between DIFFERENT investors (we do this by forensic clustering addresses together that smell like they belong to the same person).
The parent entity, iFinex, is making huge profits with its Tether capital sitting in US treasuries. Tether earns $3b per year right now. iFinex also has 94,000 BTC returning from the Bitfinex hack funds seizure ($1.5b).
Capital moving to OKX may explain its exchange token performance in this bear market.
Anything that works will need trusted centralised parties.
If true, dapps and L1s are just a wild goose chase over an intractable problem.
Please prove me wrong.
Best way to prove me wrong is to name a dapp that provides a benefit that people want that cannot be done by better by existing Web2 and Bitcoin technology.
Example arguments:
- why a DEX will be better than a CEX
- seamless fintech inter-op across the web using MetaMask
I suspect the 2 key issues needed to be solved in order to have true decentralised apps that can fulfill the dream of "Web3" are:
- prevention of sybil attacks
- ability to peer into the global state across all L1s by any dapp. (I think this problem is provably intractable)