Profit-takers initiated weeks ago, we need to wait until they exhaust before there's full freedom to explore new highs.
It's a waiting game, likely until Jan 2021 for a full reset.
Till then beware of bull traps.
SOPR by @renato_shira is a lie-proof "survey of investors to determine their profit or loss for the coins that transacted in a day". We like to use SOPR because all investors lie about their losses and on-chain guys like smart sounding acronyms.
More details here:
Once SOPR starts declining, profit taking begets profit taking. We wait until all investors in profit who are going to sell to complete their sell off, when this happens, coins moving no longer carry profit, SOPR goes to 1.0, and we can move forward. ETA January perhaps.
Is it possible for SOPR not to reset? Yes, that's the grandma telling me to buy BTC signal.
I've used eSOPR in this analysis which is @glassnode's improvement over the original SOPR by viewing only coins moving between DIFFERENT investors (we do this by forensic clustering addresses together that smell like they belong to the same person).
How can $MSTR possibly trade at 2.7x their BTC treasury?
I suspect we are seeing the start of $5-10b of inflows in anticipation of a SP500 listing right now.
If true, then it's still warming up.
Consider 20-30% of the SP500's $50T marketcap comes from passive index tracking funds and ETFs.
Inclusion into the SP500 means MSTR gets a chunk of that money.
Inflow estimates:
$10-15b from passive index tracker funds
$5-10b additional from speculative inflows
When would it happen?
FASB accounting practices go live for MSTR on 1st Jan 2025, that's a prerequisite before a listing can take place. After that MSTR will meet most of the requirements, with the last requirement being a committee decision.
Until the start of Aug, we've been in a bearish stance with an influx of 100k coins (Germany, MtGox, DOJ) while speculation has been rife creating more paper BTC.
The price crash during the start of Aug flushed out much of the paper with a nice round of liquidations... open interest got wiped.
That's a healthy reset of open value (paper bets). It's really hard for BTC to climb when there's overheated speculation in the market.
This mid-June assessment is still in play.
BTC price action needs to get really boring.
I feel like we are 66% the way there. Much of the speculation has left, we still need more of the spot BTC to be absorbed.
Here's the 5 macro signals I'm looking closely at right now for #Bitcoin.
3 bullish, 2 bearish...
Miners capitulation is over, it's one of the most reliable bullish indicators.
Hash rate is recovering, the price and hash rate bottom coincided with upgrades to next gen hardware hitting the network.
M66s went live last week.
S21 Pros this week.
Hash rate set to scream.
Miner capitulation is a very responsive indicator. The breakout was preluded with hash rate recovery; price responded within a day. I gave early warning of this.
When it kicks in we normally have months of bullishness.
I don't usually do short time frame price action as it's the domain of gamblers. But worth a break down of what's happening given the fear in the market...
We've been flushing out the leverage, 62.5k was the target to get most of it.
...speculators kept adding to new long positions, just adding more fuel for more liquidations in a cascading long squeeze.
Bridging us down to the 58k cluster, which just got taken out.
Superimposed on this liquidation squeeze, we have a post halving miners capitulation. Miners are on a BTC selling spree to pay for hardware upgrades due to the old hardware no longer being profitable. The weakest miners closing shop and being liquidated.