Willy Woo Profile picture
Dec 14, 2020 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
#MarketUpdate THREAD

SOPR is the chart I care most about RN.

Profit-takers initiated weeks ago, we need to wait until they exhaust before there's full freedom to explore new highs.

It's a waiting game, likely until Jan 2021 for a full reset.

Till then beware of bull traps. Image
SOPR by @renato_shira is a lie-proof "survey of investors to determine their profit or loss for the coins that transacted in a day". We like to use SOPR because all investors lie about their losses and on-chain guys like smart sounding acronyms.

More details here: Image
Once SOPR starts declining, profit taking begets profit taking. We wait until all investors in profit who are going to sell to complete their sell off, when this happens, coins moving no longer carry profit, SOPR goes to 1.0, and we can move forward. ETA January perhaps. Image
Is it possible for SOPR not to reset? Yes, that's the grandma telling me to buy BTC signal. Image
I've used eSOPR in this analysis which is @glassnode's improvement over the original SOPR by viewing only coins moving between DIFFERENT investors (we do this by forensic clustering addresses together that smell like they belong to the same person).

eSOPR Datasource: @glassnode
A clearer view. eSOPR 1-week moving median. Image

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More from @woonomic

Apr 15
Want to know which indicator called the last 2 large corrections within hours?

It's the moon. I shit you not... that sell signal is a particular phase of the moon.

🌘 Image
The correlation to the moon has been well studied, here's a 2005 study looking at price impact on stock markets.

If you run the correlation, the moon cycle strengthened its impact after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

That event may have lead to the birth of meme stocks. Image
🔫 You may say it was War, and pricing in War, that lead to the last #BTC pull back.

🌘 Or maybe it was just that time of the moon cycle when in a tense situation humans felt shitty enough to launch a drone + missile attack. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 10, 2023
Money has always been a balance sheet of who owes whom.

This accounting needs to be agreed upon. And there’s only 3 known ways:

1) with social consensus

2) with matter

3) with energy
1) social consensus

Examples include fiat and proof of stake.

The ones in power (the wealthy) aim to control opinion to keep faith in the accounting system.
2) matter

This is how we used to do it.

We use something physically scarce so the accounting can’t be rigged. Gold backed money, silver coins, Rye stones, livestock, etc.

This doesn’t work with increasing technology. Things cease to be scarce with sufficient tech.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 17, 2023
CVDD Floor (circa 2019) successfully defended for 2 months straight, the first proper test apart from COVID where the crash got close.

Hope this is not famous last words :).

Spot momentum has been strong throughout this move, there was also solid accumulation for months at 16k.
Cost basis comparison suggests the bottom has formed. The peak discount that short term purchases got over long term purchases has crested.

It's only at the deep parts of a bear market do short term coins get cheaper than long term coins.
BTC Macro Index. Pretty safe time to buy.

Look at the vertical halvening bands; we are now around 1 month away from the period where the re-accumulation phase of the market starts engaging.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 7, 2023
BTC on exchanges since 1st Apr 2022, just before the deleveraging dominos started falling.

Y-axis is % difference and line weight is proportional to BTC held presently.

Winners: OKX & Bitfinex
Neutral: Binance
Losers: Everyone else
Bitfinex is the sleeper here.

The parent entity, iFinex, is making huge profits with its Tether capital sitting in US treasuries. Tether earns $3b per year right now. iFinex also has 94,000 BTC returning from the Bitfinex hack funds seizure ($1.5b).
Capital moving to OKX may explain its exchange token performance in this bear market.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 30, 2022
DeFi apps can never be truly decentralised.

Been pondering this deeply.

Anything that works will need trusted centralised parties.

If true, dapps and L1s are just a wild goose chase over an intractable problem.

Please prove me wrong.
Best way to prove me wrong is to name a dapp that provides a benefit that people want that cannot be done by better by existing Web2 and Bitcoin technology.

Example arguments:
- why a DEX will be better than a CEX
- seamless fintech inter-op across the web using MetaMask
I suspect the 2 key issues needed to be solved in order to have true decentralised apps that can fulfill the dream of "Web3" are:

- prevention of sybil attacks
- ability to peer into the global state across all L1s by any dapp. (I think this problem is provably intractable)
Read 10 tweets
Dec 21, 2022
An image capture of 10,000+ coins. This is the entire ecosystem, plotted against BTC as the base currency.

It's organically beautiful.

Over coming days I'll add to this thread adding insights as I discover.

Like it to subscribe. Comment if u want me to investigate things.

🧵
First some orientation.

The last image looked like a smudge.

Zoom in. You'll see its 10,000+ lines. Each is a price chart of a coin in BTC value (e.g. DOGE/BTC).

Then I tie the present day value together to the same point so we can compare.

All price data is from @coingecko.
Like satellite imagery, we can see structure in this chart.

That river running below the BTC datum is tracking ETH.

Effectively it's the rise of DeFi from late 2020.

Wrapped ETH on multiple L1 networks and staked ETH creating many ETH price lines on top of each other.
Read 5 tweets

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