Thread by @DrEricDing

Whoa—Scientists have raised possibility that the increase in transmission is maybe due to kids. A new detail on UK 🇬🇧 mutated variant B.1.1.7–

➡️New strain may make children “as equally susceptible as adults,” said virologist at Imperial College London.🧵
nytimes.com/2020/12/21/hea…

2) “Is it more contagious than other viruses?

➡️It appears so. In preliminary work, researchers in the U.K. have found that the virus is spreading quickly in parts of southern England, displacing a crowded field of other variants that have been circulating for months.

3) “epidemiological evidence gathered so far from 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 does seem to suggest that this variant is very good at spreading. Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London, estimates the variant has an increased transmission rate of 50-70% compared to other variants in UK”

4) “To confirm that the variant truly is more contagious, researchers are now running laboratory experiments on it.
Researchers have already investigated a mutant that arose earlier in pandemic, called 614G. That variant proved to be more transmissible than its predecessors. “

5) “Does it cause more severe disease?

There is no strong evidence that it does, at least not yet. But there is reason to take the possibility seriously. In South Africa, another lineage of the coronavirus has gained one particular mutation that is also found in B.1.1.7...

6) ...”This variant is spreading quickly in coastal 🇿🇦. And in prelim studies, doctors there have found that people infected with this variant carry a heightened viral load — a higher concentration of the virus. In many viral diseases, this is associated w/ more severe symptoms.”

7) “sometimes the virus infects people with weak immune systems. In their bodies, the virus can thrive for months. Case studies on immunocompromised people have shown the virus can accumulate a large number of mutations as it replicates in their bodies for a long period of time.

8) “Over time, natural selection can favor mutant viruses that can evade the immune system. And the evolution of the variant might have been additionally driven by medicine given to such patients. Some mutants might be able to withstand drugs such as monoclonal antibodies.

9) “Other scientists have suggested that the virus could have gained new mutations by spreading through an animal population, like minks, before re-entering humans. Such “animal reservoirs” have become a focus of intense interest as more animal infections have been detected.”

10) here is earlier study on human to mink to human transmission, which also experienced a mutation in minks (diff mutation). This is why we need to eradicate the virus completely not just keep it simmering on a low grade burn. The pursuit of complete eradication is key.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1335419078446551041

11) “Is the variant already circulating in U.S.?

Not yet, as far as anyone knows. But that does not mean it hasn’t already reached the United States. British scientists have established a much stronger system to monitor coronaviruses for new mutations.”

More 🧬 sequencing pls.

12) Although the new UK mutant strain was discovered first in Sept, it could have emerged much earlier. It’s just that very few countries run as many genetic sequencing (not just basic testing) as UK scientists do to help discover it. This is a major credit to 🇬🇧 researchers...

13) UK sequences sometimes over 100x as much as other countries. Just like “no testing, no cases”... “no genetic sequencing, no mutations.” (HT to @K_G_Andersen on the phrase).

Which begs—why not more sequencing in 🇺🇸 and other developed EU countries??? Could be here already!!

14) Catch yourselves up with the latest in the specific mutations... and why convalescent plasma and monoclonal antibody drugs could be very tricky due to just where the mutations are.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1340911632147488768

15) More details of the early hints on elevated children’s risk with the new strain in UK.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1341342727154360320