Thread by @kenserson

$LUMN - Cigar butt or undervalued? I think mnmt. is riding copper assets to 0 while investing heavily, so the latter. Thesis:

- Edge assets may have pricing power
- Pick-ax & jeans to $ZM, $NFLX, etc.
- SE Asset Mnmt. activist, C19 SMB upside

Bot, add >200d #NotMoMo

Excellent thread by @NeckarValue on assets that Lumen now owns: Qwest, Level3 specifically. Will The consolidation find pricing power somewhere? Maybe it’s time.

Not exactly a toll road. Closer to a utility. A place to hide out with a call option on CDN & fiber to home.

#DataUtility add here, will close >200d, $LUMN. Needs to break out of the 2yr channel. Last time was a pump-fake.

Bandwidth is the new electricity. #yawn

$LUMN monthly inside up, earnings in Feb. Trying to escape a 10 month range. Moving faster than I expected.

Wow, clearly didn’t buy enough! And didn’t know Burry was in this, some holes in my research 🧐 $LUMN

Trimming some $LUMN here ahead of earnings and at the 200w. Up ~50% with common is a big deal. Feed the ducks and relax.

$LUMN - algos trading it down AH (likely b/c of goodwill write down), but I'm seeing $1B FCF & might have to buy back what I trimmed at $16 on the spike a while ago.

$LUMN holding the range on a messy week where major indices test monthly lows and may yet continue. I bet Buffett/$BRKB would own Lumen instead of $VZ if Walter Scott weren't on the board. Just like they don't own $MSFT

Trim $LUMN 1/5 to free up capital for next week. Up 30% on avg cost. Strong reversal candidates:

$IPOE
$TTD
$NVDA

RS candidates:

$GOOGL - h/t @canuck2usa
$LAD
$BAC
$IBM
$KMTUY

Should have just bought more $LUMN 🤦Though $TTD reacted quite nicely, others meh & have not played any yet. $14.50-$15 logical next trim spot for $LUMN but if starts closing over $15.50 it could test $21 sooner than later.

$LUMN analyst day tomorrow. Like the updated rev breakdown from mnmt. OKR for me: grow Compute & App as Voice rolls off.

Better margin higher in the stack, but won't be easy as $GOOG, $FB, $MSFT, $AMZN, vacuum it up and new co's have no profitability constraint yet $FSLY, $NET

If I'm the IT guy (+CTO for that matter) at $LUMN I am NOT happy that the CEO, apparently at HQ, does not have crystal clear video signal for Q&A on analyst day.

Bad look for a bandwidth co. and worse contrasted with an hour of slick commercials. @lumentechco

Buying partial in $FSLY here to complement one of my largest holdings: $LUMN. Looking to add. #patience

Fastly adds more edge and security to portfolio.

Trimming some $LUMN here to pay for the $FSLY shares. Into recent resistance, but see it above $17 and then back into the $20's LT.

Monthly $LUMN inside up still holding & seems like it wants the next box up, $15-20 range. Could languish for months though. Debt concerns & 2019 divvy cut created some institutional bag holders.

@finviz printing ~14% FCF yield, FWIW 😤😤

Add to $LUMN on weekly bull flag w/Oct 15c, looking for new high on year. Mnmt. sticking to knitting together #DumbPipes, as the other telco's go in and out of media.

Looking to add to $LUMN here at EV/EBITDA of 7 or 8 and improved debt picture with Apollo legacy asset sales. Stock buyback allowing exit if folks aren't on board for more fiber investment & possible divvy cut.

Mnmt. focused on building valuable assets.

$LUMN teasing and chopping amounts to nothing. Gap fills at $12. Added small ~$10, though tempted to exit since back @ B/E. Want to see numbers after POTS and LatAm transactions roll through (2023). Still 9% divvy, and closes week with IU.

$LUMN monthly. Still yielding 8+% here. Could run over $14 as legacy asset sales take effect late in 2022 (and associated rev. declines improve comps). Long wait could be nearing an end, esp. if fiber to home shows growth.

Nope - long wait continues $LUMN New 5yr lows, p/e 4, & trading like divvy cut is imminent at 12+% (maybe logical w/2yr at 4+% tho). Still think mnmt can turn the growth corner, and asset sales improve the b/s next year. Adding.

👍 the $LUMN “Any and all cash tender offer”. If the valuation is down as if the dividend had already been cut, suspend it & extinguish some debt at a discount instead. Maybe they can do both? Benefits of free cash flow.

$LUMN Tender for debt closed at ~$3b, paid cash so pro-forma b/s still healthy as closed 1d before ILEC! Divvies continue I bet. BTW, $4.4b less debt overall as Apollo/ILEC assumed $1.4b. Nice to allow stakeholder rotation as CEO/biz model/PE change.

rcrwireless.com/20221004/carri…

Ooof, $LUMN downgrade by Wells who see’s lower E and increased comp ahead. I still respect mnmt. move toward higher E quality tho. We’ll see over next few quarters as ILEC & LatAm hit the financials.

https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1577693963808538626

Hmm, Burry deleted that quoted tweet. Nabbed a screenshot ‘cuz I like the historical reference.

Don't recommend anyone (else) add $LUMN down here, but in August mnmt. reiterated 2022 guide (below). Wells DG expects FCF to $800M in 2023, implying ~50% drop from pro-forma expectations of mnmt. That would explain this drop, little else would.

Avg. FCF for 2021/20 was $3.3B.