How can anyone even argue it? Vaccinating health-care workers first is INSANE as policy. It only makes sense as theater - in two ways. First, it (theoretically) creates momentum for mass adult vaccinations - look, those smart health-care workers did it, now we’ll do it...
Second, because the people most at risk from #Covid (80 and over in assisted living facilities) die so frequently in any case, a lot of them will die shortly after being vaccinated even if the vaccine doesn’t do them any harm (and it may). This obviously will look bad...
As all the outlets that have screamed endlessly about #Covid death counts will have to explain these people were sick to begin with, the vaccine didn’t really kill them, etc (we already see some of this). Which in turn will raise uncomfortable questions about our #Covid counts...
And finally vaccinating the “right” (old/sick) people first is kind of lose-lose for vaccine- and policymakers. It may bring death counts down fast - so fast the epidemic will seem defanged very quickly and the pressure for mass vaccinations and other measures will fade....
But if it doesn’t - or more accurately doesn’t seem to (because of the way PCR testing and death certificate matching now are pulling so many deaths to be called #Covid) - people may wonder why the great risk reductionnumbers in the trials didn’t make any difference to deaths...
So yeah, better to take our time with those over-75s and let the epidemic take its course. After all, everyone wins if we all get vaccinated - especially Moderna executives!

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More from @AlexBerenson

20 Dec
1/ Let’s talk about California for a sec. Looks like three factors are in play. First, it’s playing catch up right now (virus gonna virus, hard lockdowns only delay the inevitable, etc). Second, California is short on hospitals - with 40+ million people, it has ~80,000 beds...
2/ Florida, with 22 million, has more than 55,000. Normally this doesn’t matter, the hospitals can manage, but at times of surge it can.

Third, the media and government hysteria statewide is off the charts. We’re getting all the usual nonsense...
3/ Frenzied talk of rationing (with the admission laye that the rationing is only a potential plan). Projections for admission totals that do nothing but extrapolate current trends - with no recognition that we have a year of data showing the top ALWAYS comes after 6-8 weeks...
Read 5 tweets
20 Dec
1/ As of Friday afternoon, @CDCgov had already learned of 3,150 people who'd received the vaccine had already been "unable to perform normal daily activities, unable to work, [or] required care from doctor or health care professional"...

cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/…
2/ That figure supposedly represented about 1.5% of the 215,000 vaccine recipients. Not really, through. Vaccinations increased exponentially last week; on Friday alone, 127,000 people were vaccinated. Unless people had and reported adverse events IMMEDIATELY...
3/ The denominator is far lower than 215,000 (the numerator will have a lag too, but the other way). If the lag is one day, almost 4% of the first 88,000 recipients have had a serious adverse event - AFTER THE FIRST SHOT OF THE PFIZER VACCINE...
Read 5 tweets
19 Dec
1/ I'm not an anti-vaxxer. My kids have been vaccinated. I was vaccinated.

BUT I KNOW BIG PHARMA. As a @nytimes reporter, I saw (more than saw, I wrote these stories)

Amgen offer huge "rebates" to doctors to give doses of EPO at levels that had been shown to kill patients...
2/ Eli Lilly hide the severe side effects of a drug that was not just given to but essentially forced upon some of the most vulnerable people in society (those with severe mental illness)...
3/ And Merck - supposedly the BEST and most science-centered company in the entire industry - try to hide the fact that its (not particularly useful) aspirin substitute caused heart attacks in many patients.

These are not marginal companies, okay? This is the industry...
Read 8 tweets
17 Dec
1/ Sorry, guess again. The raw data from Italy shows that this year, 15 of 55,000 deaths (as of Dec. 2) occurred in healthy people under 40. See that word “healthy”? It matters, which is why I used it. There are ~24 million people in Italy under 40...
2/ Figure roughly 20 million don’t have significant comorbidities. At a 30% population infection rate (roughly comparable to some US estimates), 6 million have been infected, so the death rate is 1 in 400,000. At 15%, 3 million, and an IFR of 1 in 200,000...
3/ As for adverse events, the news is in Table 23: “Solicited Systemic Adverse Reactions Within 7 Days.” 17% of vaccine subjects had a Grade 3/4 reaction after the second dose, 2% of placebo subjects. Grade 3: “severe.” Grade 4: “life-threatening.”

Thanks for playing, though.
Read 4 tweets
17 Dec
Note the good doctor is not disagreeing with my numbers. He can’t. He knows they’re right. He’s just telling you to do what he says like a good little boy or girl.

I’m gonna guess that’s not how he approaches other public health questions.
BTW: Can any epidemiologist, virologist, or vaccine specialist tell me what the risk of a fatal adverse event post-vaccination in healthy people under 40 might be based on the clinical trial data? Even to a factor of 5 or 10? This is a serious non-trolling question...
There were no deaths, of course. But one wouldn’t expect any - as big as the trials were, they were too small to pick up such rare events. By the same token, I believe there’s been only one reported #Covid death in the ~30,000+ placebo patients in the Pfizer and Moderna trials...
Read 4 tweets
15 Dec
1/ The usual suspects will hate me for saying so, but the truth is the truth.

We have solid @cdcgov mortality data through mid-November and it is clear that we are now massively OVERCOUNTING #Covid deaths and have been for months.

This wasn't true in the spring. It is now...
2/ The simplest and most obvious evidence of this is that overall deaths are far below where the combination of "normal" weekly deaths plus #Covid deaths would put them.

In other words, so-called non-Covid deaths have dropped well below normal. This trend makes no sense...
3/ We saw a rise in lockdown deaths (especially overdoses) this spring and summer, and we have no evidence or reason to believe those would have returned to normal (and some evidence of rising suicides). Deaths from delayed medical care may have fallen, but we can't be sure...
Read 8 tweets

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