NYTimes永远不懂“脱贫攻坚”真正的弱点。

贫困县的青壮年劳动力并不是“没有收入”,相反他们有机会坐高铁长途汽车到省会和东部打工——真正的问题是,在大城市工作、纳税、租房,却只能把孩子留在老家读村镇小学,而他们自己纳税租房的钱,被各个省市地方财政转移给公立学校,特供本地户籍孩子们读书。 Image
几个事实:
1. 中国城市公立教育,是由“地方财政”统一拨款、教育局统一分配,也就是说只要买房落户,可以0成本永久享受顶级教育资源——而真正承担这笔成本的,是“地方财政”;
2. “地方财政”的最重要来源,50%以上是土地出让金,也就是“卖地”——最终平摊到买房者身上。比如海淀区一套房7万/平米,政府要收约5万的土地出让金。

这些土地出让金组成了中国各个级别地方财政的50%以上收入——而买房的主力军,是没有户籍的年轻人外地人——他们买房的学区都不好,却供养了城市最好的学区
3. 其实从2000年开始,大批农村青壮年劳动力到深圳打工谋生,“农村留守儿童”问题就已经逐渐尖锐化。

并不是“爹妈不想带着子女去打工”,而是1. 土地出让金让他们根本买不起房;2. 没有户口就没办法落户籍上学,尤其是直辖市;3. 普通人只能合租,租金基本滚入房贷中,最终依然流入“地方财政”的口袋中

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More from @lidangzzz

Dec 22, 2022
今年我预测错了三件事。

一个是疫情,我预测了今年冬天会大爆发,但是我认为党中央会高度重视,以“人民至上、生命至上”的原则,不惜一切代价在冬天坚持清零工作——结果没想到他被一张A4纸吓坏了,前一周政治局会议还在“坚持动态清零基本方针”,第二周就连“清零”提都不提,仿佛不存在一样,直接放开了;
第二个是放开方式。

我预测他会学习日本和新加坡,采取逐渐放开方式,控制新增速度,防止第一波爆发的医疗冲击,准备好足够的mRNA疫苗和特效药后再开始解控。

没想到他直接学习朝鲜,在没有有效疫苗、没有特效药、没有布洛芬和泰诺的前提下直接无条件放开,让老百姓用自身免疫系统直接对抗Omicron。
第三个是收尾工作。

我预测哪怕是最坏情况,至少统计部门会继续准确统计感染和死亡人数,并且每天准时公布,做到对历史负责,对人民负责,对社会负责。

没想到连样子都不装了,直接官方不统计、不检测、编数据,这下子不留痕迹地完美结束疫情了——历史无法追究,媒体无法观察,一起蒙鼓里就完事儿了。
Read 4 tweets
Oct 16, 2022
【立党直播】CCTV直播的二十大即将开幕
入场式,奏乐,全体起立
开幕,唱国歌
Read 12 tweets
Oct 15, 2022
Here are some personal predictions about Xi Jinping's third term:

- Zero-covid policy will continue in the next 2~3 years, with deaths and humanitarian crisis in the "pandemic" lockdowns.

At least 3~5 cities with >10million ppl will be in lockdown status per quarter in 2023.
Based on all the speeches by Xi Jinping this year in the Political Bureau of CCP, Central Committee in CCP, National Congress - Xi insists that "zero-covid policy" is the most economical way to "protect our people's health" - and it's not likely to change the mind in 3rd term.
- Xi Jinping will continue to cut the relationships with the US and western countries.

- Xi wants to cut the dependencies on western technology - especially for the microchips, and the government will keep supporting chip manufacturing startups - especially "100% made in China";
Read 4 tweets
Oct 15, 2022
In case you didn't know, this is the official response from China Semiconductor Industry Association(CSIA) to Biden's sanction.

Left is the official letter, and right is the official translation of this letter.

(URL here: csia.net.cn/Article/ShowIn… )

Here is the thread:
1. CSIA declared itselfs as an NGO, but actually it was established by the government, running by the government, and most of the leadership members are from state-owned research institutes and companies.

So this letter can be considered as the voice from China government.
2. This is a signal that the Biden's sanction really hurt China's semiconductor fountry last week.

From this widely spread message screenshot, here are the impacts:

(1) Lam Research and AMAT left Yangtze Memory Tech;
Read 5 tweets
Oct 12, 2022
很多人不知道昨天发生了什么。

简单来说,拜登逼所有在中国工作的美国人二选一:要么立刻辞职,要么退出美国国籍。

然后在中国所有半导体制造企业的所有美籍高管和工程师,这一天集体辞职——中国半导体制造一夜间直接瘫痪。

拜登一项制裁的杀伤力,比特朗普4年十几波表演型制裁加起来还要大。
另一件事:

特朗普时期,虽然所有半导体供应商需要申请license才能继续供货,但绝大多数都是延期供应,一个月内申请license都会通过;

拜登这波制裁,所有美国供应商、IP供应商、元器件供应商、服务提供商,几乎一夜见全部撤离——彻底断绝任何服务。
我昨天发了这张图,但是随手给删了。

简单来说,中国每一家先进工艺半导体公司,几乎都在全面断供、所有美籍人员辞职、全面一夜间完成被动撤离脱钩,直接陷入瘫痪。

什么叫灭顶之灾?这就叫灭顶之灾:中国半导体制造的半壁江山直接价值归零,全面崩溃,一丁点都不剩。
Read 7 tweets
Oct 8, 2022
这事儿我强调过无数次了:为了转码而国内跨考计算机研的,无一例外都是傻逼。

Georgia Tech,全球top 10顶级大学,online项目只要1万美元,读完即可拿到线下完全一致的硕士学位。

浪费时间考研、读垃圾硕士,就是浪费你的时间和生命。

具体攻略都在这里,给我立刻star收藏:github.com/lidangzzz/How-…
我为什么强烈反对跨专业考研?

1. 你要浪费大半年的时间,在考研英语、考研政治、考研数学这些垃圾课上,对你没有任何帮助;

2. 考研是个概率事件,考上的概率如果只有30%,那么你还有70%的概率让你所有的付出成为泡沫,不得不需继续准备;
而如果你打算申请Online CS Master,你准备的是coding能力——你所有的付出努力都是有价值的,是你作为程序员的必要培训;

同时,你可以申请Gatech、UIUC、ASU等十几个学校,最终总有一个会录取你,不至于让你一整年的付出和等待浪费。
Read 5 tweets

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