The United States has an active faction of political leaders whose fidelity to democratic elections is 100% contingent on whether they win. This is an intolerable threat that must be squarely faced.
The people who raided the capitol last night ought to be punished. But they are foot soldiers. The real threat to the republic is an axis of political leaders (Trump, Cruz, Hawley etc) and right wing media outlets (Fox, OANN on down the line) who have whipped up the storm.
The thing, for me, that is crucial to understand about this moment in American history is how much it is powered by lying. Non-stop lying. The lying, misinformation, and disinformation is *the* salient point.
Because let's do a reverse thought experiment. Let's say, for example, Trump and Co. straight up stole the election. Losing on election night, he makes phone calls to several allied secretaries of state who suddenly announce a bunch of new votes for Trump and he's won GA/PA...
...let's further stipulate these calls get leaked. It leads to more hard evidence. Witnesses, data trail, video etc. It is clearly established the election results are fraudulent. But Trump and the GOP push ahead with Electoral College certification...
...this would of course lead to massive protests outside the capitol in our alternative timeline Jan 6 by liberals/lefties/democrats etc to halt the fraudulent certification. And it should! It's direct action in defense of democracy!...
So are we partisan hypocrites for supporting one form of direct action protest as a *defense* of democracy and denouncing the other as a *threat* to democracy? Of course not. Because ALL THE LYING is the crucial difference!
Trump and his enablers spent two months trying to prove, establish, convince, demonstrate, substantiate their claims of fraud. In god knows how many lawsuits, press conferences, social media posts, and interviews. And for all that effort...nothing. No proof. No evidence. Nothing.
So now we see what happened yesterday in clearer light. It's not just about "a mob storming the capitol." It's about a mob storming the capitol WHILE BEING ENCOURAGED AND EGGED ON BY POLITICAL LEADERS AND MEDIA PERSONALITIES WHO ARE LYING ABOUT THE ELECTION RESULTS!
Which brings me back around to the original point. The threat to democracy is not passionate voters being mad about election results, but leaders purposefully and cynically lying about fraud to encourage street attacks on their political opponents
What @Patrick_Wyman--there must be consequences or it gets worse--is exactly right. A group of leaders relentlessly lied about the political legitimacy of their opponents right through to the "mob attack" phase of the program. To simply move on from this would be a grave mistake.
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I’m sympathetic to the project. Whenever I work on problems like “what are revolutionary conditions” or “why do Empires fall apart,” I’m basically doing the same line of inquiry. SBTS has a clear conceit of “similar prevailing factors” being of valid interest.
But let's be clear. What Turchin/cliodynamics provides is an interesting potential tool with a few limited applications. It's not solving, superseding, or replacing history. It's not even really history.
Re: Good Dads, a thing i think about occasionally is most of the rulers who were overthrown in all our various revolutions had plenty of redeeming qualities—personally and professionally.
By all accounts Charles I, Louis XVI, Nicholas II were all devoted husbands and fathers. Loved their kids. Loved their wives. And were in turn loved by their wives and kids.
They were also, in their own ways, fairly conscientious about the jobs they had to do. They might be oblivious, pig-headed, blunder-prone fools, but they *wanted* to do a good job and did actually care about their subjects.
After all this time, I finally got to have a COVID test this morning.
I now feel like I know what my brain tastes like.
My level of French is currently rated at “successfully explain to the nurse that I need the test as part of pre-surgical checklist and have her pull me out of the giant-ass line and take me to the front as a priority”