Here is another very enjoyable conversation, with @Pandata19’s scientific advisory board member, Dr Jay Bhattacharya. Key ideas in this thread. 1/10
We are making world-changing decisions on the basis of evidence that is not very good. Vast scientific evidence tells us that infection fatality rates are much lower than originally expected. A small fraction of people get severe illness. 2/10
The scientific community has been resistant to evidence not supporting the majoritarian view, preferring instead to gin up panic, focusing on the worst case for everything the virus does & the best case for everything lockdowns do, and ignoring the range of uncertainty. 3/10
Academe is a strange place now, with debate stifled. But there's a sense some are opening up to considering opposing views. This is key, since suppression of views stops knowledge from progressing—the end of science. Public health norms of unified messaging complicate this. 4/10
Why did we, from the start, assume we knew nothing about this virus, instead of assuming a reasonable prior? Low susceptibility was evident early on. Assuming any virus is new is hard to square with our deep-time co-evolution with viruses, & their slow evolution. 5/10
A lot of smart people changed their minds about what to do in March, and need to change them back. Our hope has to be that people will lose respect for scientific institutions, and not for science itself. 6/10
From the first day Jay heard about lockdowns, they felt like a violation of everything he knew about public health. Shutting down of schools has been their most shocking manifestation. 7/10
Asymptomatic people and children are at least much less efficient at transmitting. B- and T-cell responses persist after antibody levels have waned, so it is unlikely that people who are reinfected will get severely sick. 8/10
The issue of Long Covid is overstated by the media. Similar to the flu, there are occasional extra-respiratory manifestations, but they appear to be relatively uncommon and seldom serious. 9/10
Fear of the disease prevents young, healthy people from doing the usual thing & shouldering the burden of infection, so the elderly are spared ending up in the exposed group. Then there is an interesting discussion about vaccinations, including who should seek them. Enjoy! 10/10

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More from @NickHudsonCT

3 Jan
I entered this conversation thinking that I already knew the story, in a way. Dr Wodarg had succeeded in preventing the WHO from creating a fake pandemic in 2009. He thought the world wasn't silly enough to be fooled twice, but he'd been wrong. 1/9 pandata.org/wolfgang-wodar…
He'd previously had ready access to mainstream media and found this suddenly cut off when he opened his mouth to voice his concern about the hysterical mania of Covid. The comically corrupt whom he'd vanquished all those years ago had been waiting for him. 2/9
All sorts of web entries about his courageous and humane career in public health and politics had morphed into caricatures that painted him as a freak; a "denier", as the post-modern parlance goes, with no means of redress. 3/9
Read 10 tweets
30 Dec 20
“When the law is unjust, violating it is not only justified as legitimate, it is exalted as heroic.”

The regulations are absurd, from masks, to curfews, to closures. People see they’re ineffective & destructive & they are disobeying, as they all should. businesslive.co.za/fm/opinion/pro…
We have state capture, media capture and corrupt science all participating in this tragic miscarriage of justice, this terrorizing and brutalizing of ordinary people. Democracy lies in ruins, there is no debate and no chance to question and demand answers.
Every citizen has an ethical obligation to resist. Complicit politicians, journalists and scientists will have their day of reckoning. The rest of us need to be on the right side of history.
Read 6 tweets
23 Dec 20
Before you decide that you’re worried about that new “mutation”, please listen to professor of virology, Vincent Racaniello, replacing governmental bad science with some good science. 1/7
Some key points: No reason to expect greater transmissibility, a change in the ages of people at risk or greater virulence. This is neither a mutation nor a new strain. 2/7
Epidemiological measurement is not a sound basis for assessing the impact of the changes. 3/7
Read 8 tweets
17 Dec 20
This thread details a social experiment of sorts. PANDA members have dropped bombshell after bombshell in recent weeks, with nary a peep out of media or the lockdown zealots of social media. Let’s recap on @Pandata19’s recent messages: pandata.org
We pointed out that basic epidemiology predicts that lockdowns will cause Covid mortality to increase, by shifting disease burden onto the vulnerable. Our forthcoming paper shows how this has played out in the international data:
This is not new. Our advisory board member, @MartinKulldorf, has been making the consequential case for the benefits of focused protection since early April!
linkedin.com/pulse/covid-19…
Read 33 tweets
7 Dec 20
When a handful of scientists were ejected from South Africa's Ministerial Advisory Committee, we were hopeful that they would speak out against the malarkey. Instead, the "Scientists Collective" are inflaming it, as @PanData19 describes here: 1/10 dailyfriend.co.za/2020/12/07/a-f…
The condescending tone and overdose of misinformation in the article we reference tells us a lot about how South Africa came to adopt such a catastrophic response to a virus that presents no significant threat to the vast majority of its population: 2/10 dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-1…
The SC have been right in pointing out that South Africa's lockdown had clearly not been responsible for the long wait for its winter outbreak, cautioned against overhyping second waves and spoken against immunity passports and travel quarantine. This is sound. 3/10
Read 10 tweets

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