1/ For the last year, Ireland has had among the hardest #Covid restrictions anywhere. On Dec. 22, it tightened them again - banning all travel between counties, restaurant dining, and on Jan. 1 all home visits (!)

Since then cases have risen 10-fold, a truly parabolic curve...
2/ Yesterday, Ireland reported 8,200 positive tests - equal to ~550,000 in the US.

How can we still be arguing about whether lockdowns work at this point?

Sooner or later, virus gonna virus. And the new strain means it spreads faster among unexposed people...
3/ So places like Ireland are MORE rather than less vulnerable to this kind of event.
4/ Two other points: to its credit, Ireland HAS KEPT SCHOOLS OPEN. Guess the teachers unions aren’t as strong.

And for now, this is mostly a casedemic - deaths and ICU admits are below the spring peak even though positive tests are much higher. But that probably will not last.
I thought they had stayed open - but I see I am wrong and they have just closed. CORRECTION

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More from @AlexBerenson

7 Jan
1/ Let’s talk about #Covid hospitalizations. Seemingly every day the Covid Tracking Project reports another new high for admitted #Covid patients and the media eagerly (yes, eagerly) reports hospitals in LA and elsewhere are close to collapse.

So what’s really happening?
2/ Okay, let’s look at Arizona. A fair choice - it has more #Covid positive tests and hospitalizations per-capita than any other state. Covid patients fill 60% of its ICU beds. Its hospital executives are sounding alarms. The system must be collapsing, right?

Not exactly...
3/ The first graph is #Covid patients in ICU beds. Scary. They’ve risen almost 10-fold since the low in late September, from ~115 to 1,100. Overall inpatient trends are pretty much the same... ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
5 Jan
1/ Through Dec. 22, with fewer than 1 million doses of the #Covid vaccine given, @CDCgov's vaccine injury reporting system received 307 reports of ER visits and 17 "life threatening" events.

Per dose, that's roughly 50 times the rate of adverse events from the flu vaccine...
2/ In 2019-2020, about 175 million flu vaccine doses were given. 1220 ER visits and 73 "life threatening" events were reported. The data is on the CDC VAERS Website.

Caveats: physicians et al may be more diligent about reporting #Covid vaccine events, since the vaccine is new...
3/ And the data is theoretically updated through Friday Jan. 1, which would be a much higher denominator. However, I believe it is correct to use Dec. 22 as the last date for Covid adverse events because I cannot find any later reports in the system...
Read 6 tweets
26 Dec 20
How can anyone even argue it? Vaccinating health-care workers first is INSANE as policy. It only makes sense as theater - in two ways. First, it (theoretically) creates momentum for mass adult vaccinations - look, those smart health-care workers did it, now we’ll do it...
Second, because the people most at risk from #Covid (80 and over in assisted living facilities) die so frequently in any case, a lot of them will die shortly after being vaccinated even if the vaccine doesn’t do them any harm (and it may). This obviously will look bad...
As all the outlets that have screamed endlessly about #Covid death counts will have to explain these people were sick to begin with, the vaccine didn’t really kill them, etc (we already see some of this). Which in turn will raise uncomfortable questions about our #Covid counts...
Read 6 tweets
20 Dec 20
1/ Let’s talk about California for a sec. Looks like three factors are in play. First, it’s playing catch up right now (virus gonna virus, hard lockdowns only delay the inevitable, etc). Second, California is short on hospitals - with 40+ million people, it has ~80,000 beds...
2/ Florida, with 22 million, has more than 55,000. Normally this doesn’t matter, the hospitals can manage, but at times of surge it can.

Third, the media and government hysteria statewide is off the charts. We’re getting all the usual nonsense...
3/ Frenzied talk of rationing (with the admission laye that the rationing is only a potential plan). Projections for admission totals that do nothing but extrapolate current trends - with no recognition that we have a year of data showing the top ALWAYS comes after 6-8 weeks...
Read 5 tweets
20 Dec 20
1/ As of Friday afternoon, @CDCgov had already learned of 3,150 people who'd received the vaccine had already been "unable to perform normal daily activities, unable to work, [or] required care from doctor or health care professional"...

2/ That figure supposedly represented about 1.5% of the 215,000 vaccine recipients. Not really, through. Vaccinations increased exponentially last week; on Friday alone, 127,000 people were vaccinated. Unless people had and reported adverse events IMMEDIATELY...
3/ The denominator is far lower than 215,000 (the numerator will have a lag too, but the other way). If the lag is one day, almost 4% of the first 88,000 recipients have had a serious adverse event - AFTER THE FIRST SHOT OF THE PFIZER VACCINE...
Read 5 tweets
19 Dec 20
1/ I'm not an anti-vaxxer. My kids have been vaccinated. I was vaccinated.

BUT I KNOW BIG PHARMA. As a @nytimes reporter, I saw (more than saw, I wrote these stories)

Amgen offer huge "rebates" to doctors to give doses of EPO at levels that had been shown to kill patients...
2/ Eli Lilly hide the severe side effects of a drug that was not just given to but essentially forced upon some of the most vulnerable people in society (those with severe mental illness)...
3/ And Merck - supposedly the BEST and most science-centered company in the entire industry - try to hide the fact that its (not particularly useful) aspirin substitute caused heart attacks in many patients.

These are not marginal companies, okay? This is the industry...
Read 8 tweets

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