The insurrection was MUCH uglier than it looked. We are learning more about:
-Plans for grabbing Electoral College votes
-Participants with Police/Military background
-Taliban style videotape confessions / executions of Congress members
The FBI and the New York Police Department passed information to the Capitol Police about the possibility of violence during the Jan. 6 protests against the ratification of the presidential election
The Outrage Industrial Complex is nervous about its role in pushing the Big Lie. Unless there are real financial consequences for their role as advocators of the coup, this will only be a temporary reprieve before they ramp up once again.
"Brandishing arms and threatening their use against federal officials, the militias have enjoyed spectacular successes – with the Capitol only the latest example." theguardian.com/environment/20…
Lots of stuff here:
Before Parler went dark, a researcher "crawled everything" on the site, in an effort to catalogue the posts of social media users. The archive includes associated metadata, including user location.
"Over the weekend, a group of private companies—Twitter, Facebook, Apple, Google—decided that they no longer wanted to give away their free services to people & organizations who used them to advocate for the overthrow of the U.S. government." -@JVLast
"This isn’t cancel culture, which is a societal blight. Nor is this politically motivated - Forbes’ pro-entrepreneur, pro-growth worldview has placed it in the right-of-center camp over the past century."
"A Secret Service officer was put under investigation after posting comments on Facebook in which she accused lawmakers who formalized Biden’s win of treason and expressed support for the rioters who stormed the Capitol, the agency confirmed Monday."
These YouGov polls should be taken w/a grain of salt: I'd be shocked if less than half of the GOP support prosecuting the rioters who broke into the Capitol.
My guess: Its more like 60-70% who support prosecution of rioters.
Misfeasance (Nonfeasance): The failure to discharge public obligations existing by common law, custom, or statute.
The news continues to flow as actual law enforcement takes over. Reports of pro-Trump Right-wing extremists have gone encrypted, and are calling for a disruption of Biden's inauguration.
"A day before rioters stormed Congress, an FBI office in Virginia issued an explicit internal warning that extremists were preparing to travel to Washington to commit violence and “war,” according to an internal document reviewed by WaPo."
"Witnesses saw members of Congress leading people through the Capitol on Jan. 5 in what was termed a reconnaissance for the next day when insurrectionists took part in a deadly siege on the legislative branch."
Sarah Groh, chief of staff to Rep. Ayanna Pressley, discovered that “Every panic button in my office had been torn out — the whole unit,” she said, though they could come up with no rationale as to why.
via @HelenKennedy
"What is different today is that at no point in living memory has the defeated president of the US, along with the majority of his party, proclaimed that a national election was fraudulent and that the incoming president is illegitimate."
This thread repeatedly referenced a possibility of an Inside Job. Evidence increasingly supports that view.
"Federal agencies opened two new investigations into the extent to which Capitol Police and some lawmakers were complicit in the mob attack." nytimes.com/2021/01/13/us/…
More details on the Inside Job surface:
"Multiple European security officials told Insider that President Donald Trump appeared to have tacit support among US federal agencies responsible for securing the Capitol complex in Wednesday's coup attempt."
Someone made simultaneous transfers of 28.15 bitcoins — worth $500,000 — to 22 different virtual wallets, most belonging to prominent right-wing organizations and personalities.
FBI is investigating links between coins & Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol insurrection
Moments after Secret Service hustled Pence + his family out of the Chamber, a group charged up stairs to the 2nd floor loudly denouncing the VP as a traitor, chanting “Hang Mike Pence!” They arrived seconds after the VEEP was rushed into an office.
FOMC seems 2b always behind the curve, historically, going back to the 1990s under Greenspan.
They are a big + boring conservative institution & are fearful of error. They tend to be less aggressive when making decisions, with significant ramifications.
Consider the errors of just the past 2 decades and you can see the biggest mistake they make is either arriving way too late to the party or once they are there, overstaying their welcome:
1. Only 5 stocks driving markets 2. Recession is inevitable 3. Breadth is terrible 4. AI is a bubble 5. Debt ceiling = disaster 6. Problematic new lows 7. Consumers running out of money 8. Earnings will fail THIS Q 9. HH Debt! 10. Rally faltering
Let's see if I can find something to undercut each of those 10 items:
Only 5 stocks driving markets?
Then why are Equal-weighted indices doing so well?
What drives market returns? These rolling 10-year total returns going back to 1909 (via Crestmont Research) show an average ~10% annual total return over any 10-year long period.
Ed Easterling (of Crestmont) breaks down those returns into these components: EPS, Dividend Yield, and P/E Increase (or decrease).
Note how cyclical P/E expansion/contraction is...
This is why it is important to include whether P/Es are expanding or contracting in any definition of a bull or bear market.
It takes the Earth 365 days, 6 hours, 9 minutes + 9.76 seconds to complete 1 orbit – to return to the exact same place relative to the sun. Our planet has done this about 4.54 billion times.
What does this unit of time have to do with investing?
Alas, utterly nothing...
This is an example of the irrelevant nature of the calendar - I'd be curious to see what the data looks like for successive rolling 12-month periods rather than calendar years; it might also be more useful than using January - December periods