About COVID19 and the road out of this mess.... 🧵

We have a situation where we are using vast quantities of resources, creating tonnes and tonnes of garbage (masks, swab sticks, other PPE) and also not winning....
We have out of control COVID19, deaths and new disabilities every day...

COVID19 has made it onto every continent on Earth.

It’s mutating faster than we can adapt and variants that are close to escaping cover are being found.
There is however hope, and believe it or not, it has been under our noses the whole time.

We need to dust off our old measles and SARS Airborne disease control plans. We need to aim for human elimination of COVID19....

WHAT?! This is impossible you say? Maybe, read on.
There is a weird thing that happens when you aim for the impossible; you get better outcomes.

If you aim to use the airborne disease pandemic plans, initially it is hard, but then you adapt. You start getting reusable and useful PPE... this means fewer workers get sick ->
This helps to break the viscous cycle in one of the biggest drivers of disease... hospitals and aged care.

If you use the airborne plans you might have to close schools early and use a flexible hybrid learning plan, but as the community the school in recovers school is back!
We have learned a lot since the days of the old measles plans, perhaps with lower prevalence and mitigation, we might even have a head start.

Airborne disease planning also helps the community understand what to do, and help themselves.
Finally, why aim for zero covid... that’s got to be crazy right. It’s everywhere... it’s in our wildlife now!!!

Stay with me...
Now perhaps someone wiser than me can explain the maths of this, but apparently having zero cases gives a much higher statistical likelihood of having very little disease in the community..

Zero covid doesn’t mean actually zero... it gives a hard line in the sand to chase.
Zero covid strategy means that every case is hunted down and isolation is taken seriously.

There is no debate about whether we should do something at 10, 100, or 100,000 cases a day.

Debates that waste time and kill people... and our planet...
Zero covid occasionally means that you do actually have periods of zero covid, and this is a welcome relief...
So in summary, activate your country’s airborne disease pandemic plan. Aim for zero covid. It might not be possible... at least not for some time, but it will give far better outcomes.
Who knows, at some point we may even get human elimination, and we can go back to animal surveillance. If we buy time we may get better therapeutics. We can stop COVID19 mutating and beating us again.
If you can envision a future where we have governments that are following a path out of COVID19 please sign this. A petition to activate the Airborne Diseases Pandemic Plan so that governments can have a clear path to follow. We have had them for measles etc for many years.
Also start a petition in your own country. Ask your government for the airborne disease pandemic plan. Push them to answer why not... why not aim for better?

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More from @NjbBari3

12 Jan
#auspol

On the subject of vaccines.. 🧵

Please don’t read this thread if you have a mindset that vaccinations are dangerous. This thread is for Aussies that are curious about the vaccine debate.
Firstly, and most importantly, the vaccines are all safe enough when compared to other vaccines. Yes they have happened faster that usual, but this is mainly because researchers didn’t have to write hundreds of applications for funding, and volunteers were ready to try...
What don’t we know about the vaccines?

The things we don’t have data on yet are what might happen to you ten years after a vaccine (because no time travel machine). This is highly unlikely to be something major or common (& compared to COVID19 long effects prob ok.)

and
Read 15 tweets
11 Jan
@CollignonPeter a short lockdown helps contact tracers get ahead.
Yes, these two clusters in Sydney are “new introductions” thanks to very poor infection control guidelines.
Predictable responses are useless in a fast moving pandemic... you need to be flexible. Yes it’s exhausted people, but we are just going to have to toughen up a bit.

You can’t go to a meeting, make a bunch of rules and expect covid to play fair until the next meeting.
Read 5 tweets
26 Aug 20
Round 1 Hong Kong research.... very detailed. Sars1 was strongly suspected of having aerosol spread. Plumbing, toilets, indoor situations all cropped up. Hong Kong have redone the research for sars2 but did not ignore their findings for sars1->
and why should they?There particle size weight and composition of sars1 and sars2 are not very different,and sars2 is more infectious not less. Proper scientific extrapolation indicates that similar precautions required,and last time only airborne worked.I know.I was wearing it.
Read 14 tweets
25 Aug 20
Male reproductive hormones changed by #covid19.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Study finds damage to cells that produce sperm in patients that suffer #covid19.

google.com.au/amp/s/amp.scmp…
Testicular pain as a presentation of #covid19

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Read 4 tweets
14 Aug 20
@ScottMorrisonMP I have done a reality check today, and decided that reality sucks. Covid positive elderly patients alone, sedated and dying, abandoned in their own faeces, while others are being crawled over by ants is well below “excellent standards” demanded by Aussie’s.
Read 9 tweets
27 Jun 20
@apsmunro @kerrysmith654 Teachers in Aus stayed in minimum weekly contact with all families during lockdown. Phone and if available, video calling. Anything similar in UK?
@apsmunro @kerrysmith654 Specifically, they contacted parents *and* kids...
@apsmunro @kerrysmith654 They did virtual schooling, initially with just work sent in email, easy things children could do by themselves, followed by video lessons either once a day or all day, depending on stage of schooling. On top of that teacher phoned and asked how we were going. It helped.
Read 7 tweets

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