Thread by @ewbarnard

1. Lt Col Brock (ret) was in the USAF Academy class of 1989. For perspective, so was astronaut Terry Virts.

I truly hope the service academies enhance their curricula regarding disinformation. That training *can* last a lifetime. (short thread) @LouiseMensch @911CORLEBRA777

https://twitter.com/patribotics/status/1348758654774870018

2. The USAFA Academy did, for example, strongly update their survival/POW training in the mid 1970s as a result of lessons learned from returning POWs (Operation Homecoming). This change I observed first hand.

3. Congress has the authority to impose curriculum changes at the service academies. For example, here is the 1976 report to Congress on heavy attrition at the service academies.

gao.gov/assets/120/116…

4. I recall firsthand that we discussed that report, and attrition, at the USAF Academy. That's how I knew to look for the report! The USAFA Class of 1975 had 46% attrition... or did it. Here's the New York Times article but let me then explain something.

nytimes.com/1976/03/07/arc…

5. I find this report hilarious in an ironic sort of way. "In every year since 1995, women have never exceeded 27% of the nominees of current Members of Congress too the service academies. The nomination gap cuts across party lines."

law.yale.edu/sites/default/…

6. Teenagers (generally speaking) must go through Members of Congress to get into the Academy in the first place. The Members of Congress literally *are* gatekeepers to our service academies. I have no opinion on whether that's a good or bad thing; it's the process.

7. What's hilarious (in a bad sort of way) is that with my appointment this really was no issue at all. Only males were nominated, period. Simple. Fortunately, the following year, women *were* eligible for nomination - by act of Congress.

8. As for active duty military, the Department of Defense has procedures. Demi Moore and Tom Cruise and Jack Nicholson.

9. But, duh, we sure need to be looking at our feeder system. That's what the service academies are designed to be. We've made changes before, and some of those changes have come via Congress.
/end

10. Oops, sorry. I got side tracked! About those attrition numbers...

11. Here's the official "transparency" graduation rate data. This comes from the usafa dot edu. It's official. And VERY carefully worded.

usafa.edu/about/institut…

12. You may recall the mid 1970s had 40-46% attrition. But the table at the link above has retention rates of 93.5% to 94.4% for the classes of 2014-2017. What changed?

I don't know. But I do know the numbers are counted differently!

13. Academy appointees (i.e., incoming college students) arrive around July 1st of the year. It's like incoming football teams don't wait until the start of the academic year to begin practicing. We begin practicing over the summer - June 30th in my case (a Monday).

14. So, we make a count of all the appointees who show up that first day. We then, four years later, make a count of all those who walked the line at graduation.

15. For the class of 1975, a 46% attrition rate means that, of those who showed up the first day in 1971, 46% of them walked the line at graduation.

The USAFA Association of Graduates site states...

www2.usafa.org/ClassData/Inde…

that 1,404 showed up on Monday, July 5, 1971, and 756 graduated on Wednesday, June 4, 1975.

756/1404 is .538, or 53.8 percent graduated.
Subtract from 100% and we have 46.2% who did NOT graduate, i.e. 46% attrition. With me so far?

17. Now here's the deal. What about those 94% retention rates? Of those *who began the academic year in the fall*, 94% stayed on to graduate. And, I must say, that is WAY above what I observed in the 1970s.

Here's the missing piece.

18. The missing piece is summer camp. That first July and August. Some are gone the first day - and we lost a LOT more before the academic year started. When most of the attrition happens before that first summertime practice session is over, well...

19. the retention numbers look great if you count from the people who began the academic year.

If anyone actually cares, the congressional report explains reasons for disparities, including comparing the policy of "get them out now" vs. "let's try to keep them".
/end

20. I missstated 15. For the class of 1975, 54% walked the graduation line, accepting diplomas; by that point 46% had departed (46%) attrition. Good catch, @SpicyUm :)

https://twitter.com/SpicyUm/status/1348775332971565058