I think we are probably sliding towards a very messy and confusing low grade civil war, in which the citizenry and government is fighting itself, no matter what happens. This could play out several different ways.
The second wave of the coup attempt is in the next 10 days and will involve armed attacks on state capitols and the inauguration. If these succeed, Trump remains in office. If they fail, there is a long term terrorist threat. If they stall, a prolonged conflict starts.
Let's assume the best case scenario, which is that Biden gets into office. This will be met with heightened militia activity and retaliatory terrorist attacks in the short, medium, and long term.
If there is enough chaos, Trump will try to exploit it to remain in power under the guise of an emergency. This may be the goal of wave 2. If this happens, you will see left wing insurgency against the Trump coup government play out over a sustained period of time.
In all of these scenarios, it ends with Americans killing each other and competing factions within the government, which is not a monolith, fighting each other. The only exit from these outcomes is if the military decisively squashes the coup attempt and restores order.
I don't really see a conflict of standing armies taking place, Blue vs Grey style. I think there are going to very blurred lines in every dimension of the conflict. No one will know exactly what is going on most of the time. Let us hope for peace and prepare for the worst.
Fair addendum - they are the X factor and will only exacerbate the situation

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More from @benFranklin2018

11 Jan
Giving Pence 24 hours to exercise the 25th amendment is nothing more than a stalling tactic to avoid moving forward on impeachment. You should have serious questions why any action on impeachment is being dragged out, as this enables and emboldens Trump et al
People will make any excuse for the foot dragging on taking action but it's actually inexcusable under the circumstances, this is not the behavior of a functioning opposition party and you need to start asking questions about what's really going on
Literally any excuse, my mentions are filled with goobers telling me that not holding Trump accountable is 4D chess. What the hell is wrong with you people? You are seriously fucked up if you think there's some sort of master plan at work here.
Read 4 tweets
11 Jan
Yes, it's the same phenomenon. the "resistance" has cycled through an endless parade of saviors, from mueller to cyrus vance, not realizing that the overall picture is that trump et al have been operating with near total impunity and immunity for four years.
They'll fall for the newest faux spy story about how something is happening, invisibly, that is going to lead to the trump administration collapsing. Fake stories of how Trump is going to imminently resign or that the GOP is about to turn on him. They keep trusting the liars.
that uncle blazer account that kept popping up fooled 10s of thousands of people into thinking secret behind the scenes stuff was going to fix this. I hope, by now, it's clear that this was a bundle of lies designed to keep people pacified and helpless.
Read 5 tweets
11 Jan
Yesterday's action on impeachment: none
Today's forecast for action on impeachment: none
Despite the overwhelming demand for action, despite the capitol being attacked, every effort is being made to draw this out as long as possible and keep supporters pacified with conditional promises to action and talk talk talk. Open your eyes, friends.
More effort is being poured into pushing out excuses for inaction than into actually impeaching Trump. The house sat on their hands for two years and let subpoenas go ignored, no endless public investigations as promised. They're protecting him and I've told you why.
Read 4 tweets
11 Jan
The role of our own security apparatus, which has not been functioning in the public interest for a long time, in creating and sustaining this political crisis has been intentionally underscrutinized. Too much blame on foreign powers (Russia) and even organized crime.
I fear I won't have enough time to research the intertwining history of the GOP and the CIA before the shit hits the fan, but it's clear that from its creation it was deeply enmeshed with the republican power structure. The same CIA that failed to stop 2016.
As always, I believe that the best smoking gun I can find is the Mary Carter Paint Company, which clearly illustrates the shared operations of the GOP, the intelligence community, organized crime, and business.
Read 5 tweets
11 Jan
The video is declaring the great awakening which is the cue anon code for the day they expose the cabal and smash it. Kind of a predictable season finale but here we are.
Pretty safe to say the next phase of the coup is on January 20th and that we should brace for impact.
Read 4 tweets
10 Jan
The operation was meant to blackmail powerful people such that they would assist in attacking the United States in this current crisis or be deterred from preventing an attack in place. We have no idea how many powerful people were ensnared in this intelligence operation.
This is the type of blackmail where no one is going to come and out and say "They got me committing sex crimes on HD video!" Once you're in, the incentive is to keep a tight lid on what's going on, working in cooperation with other people who are similarly compromised.
And eventually an entire social class of people who had been blackmailed, or who knew about the blackmail operation and stayed silent, was formed and leveraged against the interest of the United States according to their ability. Trump himself included.
Read 8 tweets

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