I'm one of those approximately 14 Americans who thinks we should give PR statehood and have a new VRA but not DC statehood or universal mail-in balloting.
Good question! Let me list a few things.

Election day is a a kind of super-Federal Holiday, and no employer other than public safety organizations can schedule more than 4 hours of work.
Commit money to waive passport application fees, expand the agency producing them, and automatically issue them for each social security number or any time somebody interacts with the Federal government.
This is a way of providing everybody a free, high-quality Federally-issued voter ID without tying it to driving or meddling in current state regulations.
Beef up funding for Federal election observers. Include providers of election technology in a stricter audit framework.
Codify that the meaning of the 14th amendment, section 2, means, "a state's electoral apportionment shall be proportional to the actual number of votes cast in recent presidential election, non-participation being evidence of abridgement."
Have Congress re-pass the correct language of the original first amendment, the Congressional Apportionment Amendment, establishing that states shall have 1 House member per 60,000 residents.
Have the Federal government provide more dedicated funding, inversely proportional to the poverty rate in a state, for poll workers, election sites, and the election process.
That's it that's the plan.

We should not restore the coverage formula since there's not much evidence that it was actually capturing places offering bad access conditions.
The correct way to deal with access is to interpret the 14th amendment as saying that a state's electors should be reduced by an amount proportional to the share of eligible voters who do not in fact vote. That's the correct compromise.
Most state ID laws do not require that you have an address. They just require you to prove you are you.
Oh one last thign I'd add:

All mail-in ballotting is banned. Even absentee. Physically show up or you don't count.

That's the tradeoff for the super-holiday. Everybody gets the day off work! Do your civic duty.
Also early voting is banned.

Everybody gets a holiday. Everybody. Work hour limitations, the whole shebang. We increase funding for workers and stations. We do all this stuff.

And the tradeoff is IT'S ALL ON ELECTION DAY.
I might make an exception for uniformed personnel. But long-term expats are disenfranchised. I say that as a long term expat.
"DC should be a state" trolls by the way will no longer be replied to and if persistent will be blocked.
Ban non-day-of voting because such voting 1) is harder to police 2) cannot guarantee the secret ballot 3) opens the door to absurd and excessive litigation and 4) misunderstands the very point of what voting is and 5) opens the door to dead-candidate problems
Someone has seen through my ruse!

Yes. This lays the groundwork for rolling back the US' stupid and absurd tax-harrassment of expats.

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More from @lymanstoneky

13 Jan
Saw @mattyglesias tweet about a poll of QAnon support (linked). I think it's a *bit* mistaken tho: the table he shared was QAnon support *among those who had heard of it*. But TONS more liberals have heard of QAnon than conservatives!
Here's the net favorability of QAnon (double-weighting the "very" folks) accounting for differences in who's even heard of QAnon. Image
Key to understand is Democrats and liberals are EXTREMELY anti QAnon not only because they are very unfavorable to it but because large shares of Rep/Con folks ***have never heard of QAnon***.
Read 22 tweets
13 Jan
I think it's fair to criticize US support of the Saudis in this war.

I also think it's unreasonable to argue that we should be providing even humanitarian aid in a region where we know both sides will steal it and use it to enhance their exploitation of the local people.
During the US Civil War, the Confederates starved because the Union starved them.

Food aid to the Confederacy would not have gone to slaves, folks. It would have gone to slave-owners.
It's possible to say both "we should not support the inhumane Saudi war effort" and also "if the Houthis want Iranian support, let Iran feed them."
Read 13 tweets
13 Jan
reading the self-important and vaguely-cultish textbooks by bayesians makes me want to go out and kill a sufficiently large number of bayesians that i can estimate the mean pitch of their screams
"when we have multiple models, we should choose one using Bayesian statistics"


you should do both and publish an appendix showing robustness tests, you cultist
"but my bayesian model takes 4 weeks to process i can't run 1,397 robustness tests"


Read 33 tweets
12 Jan
Because we're *not* vaccinating healthcare workers for this reason.

Many healthcare workers getting vaccinated are not even tangentially related to the ICU, or even providers *at all*, and what's actually happening is the fetishization of COVID precautions.
Choices are *justified* through ritualistic gestures at putatively epidemiologically significant concepts.

But the choice to put many non-health-related workers ahead of high risk people is the giveaway.
Likewise, that we have "prioritization" schemes, but allocated vaccines based on *total* population, suggests that those schemes are meaning-making rituals designed to build narratives of just desserts, not health-related efforts.
Read 8 tweets
12 Jan
So I want to talk about vaccines and the scale of stupid involved in what's happening.
We've heard what % of the population is vaccinated. What % of vaccines are distribute. We've heard about prioritization.

But does anybody have any numbers on prioritization? I couldn't find any. So I made some.
How many people live in each state who are either healthcare workers or elders living in group quarters? With a little adjustment for population change, we can estimate this, and see if states were over- or under-allocated vaccines.
Read 39 tweets
12 Jan
This got me thinking. I instinctually was like, "This is definitely wrong..." and went to check it. And indeed, it's wrong. Graphs below!
So we have to start by asking, "How do we calculate excess deaths?"

By "excess deaths" we mean "deaths above the value we expect in this period based on some plausible counterfactual."
But.... what is the plausible counterfactual!?!?!

This turns out to be super important in a lot of cases. Deciding what the baseline would have been is kind of a big deal.
Read 39 tweets

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