Operation Warp Speed presser highlights:
-distributed to over 14k locations
-Average of 700k reported vaccinations a day currently.
-On track to hit 1m daily vaccination in the next 7-10 days.
-By the end of next week, 95% of long terms care facilities will have gotten 1st dose
-OWS is now releasing all of the vaccine supply instead of holding back 2nd dose
-Expanding groups to get vaccinated (65+ in all states, all people under age 65 with comorbidities)
- Forthcoming changes to state allocations to encourage more rapid vaccinations.
-Starting last week, states have been allowed to rollout vaccines to 19 pharmacy chains. This will allow states to allocate vaccines directly to these pharmacies.
-Community health centers have begun vaccinations
-Effective 2 weeks from now, HHS is changing how they allocate doses to each state. Will be allocated based on pace of administration as reported by each state, and size of 65+ population
-2 week TLs give states time to improve reporting systems and administration processes.
Graphic from presser: Vaccine distribution sites on December 14 (first day of delivery).
December 21 ( first day Moderna delievered).
January 11 (as of yesterday).
Some info on data delays:
-Usual vaccine reporting is 30 days, and US is now asking providers to provide data in 3-5 days so it’s taken time to get up and running

Perna makes the point that distribution is separate from administration, and distribution has been very successful
Reporters already conflating the UK strategy of increasing the interval between first and second dose (from 3 weeks to 12 weeks) and the US strategy of not holding back the 2nd dose supply.

Y’all, these are 2 separate things, the interval for 2nd dose is the same tho! 🤦🏻‍♀️
Dr. Slaoui says J&J one-dose vaccine data is on track for end of the month/early february EUA submission with possible authorization in mid-February. Likely double digit number of doses (millions) available by end of February for distribution.
Astrazeneca vaccine submission likely will occur upon data readout from US trial (so not going to be authorized in the US before then). The window for EUA submission begins first week of March.
Novavax vaccine trial is about a third of the way enrolled, with an efficacy readout around April.

one of the most promising vaccine candidates. The faster people sign up for the trial, faster it can be made available. If you’re interested, sign up here clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04…
A trial is also being conducted to compare immune responses to coronavirus baccine to determine what exactly what level of antibody response is needed to give protection. This will dramatically accelerate other vaccine approval as placebo-controlled trials wont be needed as much.

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More from @Alicia_Smith19

29 Dec 20
Quick thoughts on people worried about seemingly slow pace of vaccine distribution. Some things to remember and how we could speed it up going forward:
-for one thing, the reported numbers by CDC are best we have but even that's flawed. 3-5 day lag with some states not reporting
-Even if you follow the Bloomberg tracker, there are about 17 states that haven't updated their numbers in a week (NM in 2 weeks!). During that time, Moderna has rolled out doses to 3,500+ locations and LTC facility vaccinations have begun

So there could be a significant lag.
-This goes to states still getting their reporting systems up and running. Less than half of US states currently have a vaccination dashboard to track data. Think back to March/April and how long it took providers and testing sites to streamline reporting to the state.
Read 13 tweets
7 Dec 20
A quick thread on this,and I’ll let you decide its implications:The US govt ordered 100m doses from Pfizer and Moderna each months ago(100m ppl total) with an option in the contract to expand the order by an additional ~300m doses each.Moderna/Pfizer shot is a 2 dose regimen 1/
So 100m doses from Pfizer ordered, 100m from Moderna ordered.Enough for 100m total to get vaccinated.
Pfizer then approached the govt in Aug to see if they wanted to exercise the portion of the contract to expand the order (prior to Phase 3 results).Trump admin declined 2/
In the meantime, other countries started to put in orders for the Pfizer vaccine. Flash forward to November, and efficacy is shown to be ~95%. It will now likely be approved within a week in US (already approved in UK). 3/
Read 7 tweets
9 Sep 20
As described in article breaking the news:
1) A connection between the illness and the vaccine candidate hasnt been established
2) Trial paused out of abundance of caution to ensure it wasnt bc of the vaccine candidate
3) So much for “corners being cut to help trump” assertion
Clinical holds common in trials, and are done out of an abundance of caution. Jumping to conclusions and saying that the patient had an “adverse side-effect” to the vaccine before independent safety review board says that was the cause is irresponsible statnews.com/2020/09/08/ast…
I think we’re stuck in situation where potentially bad news re:
corona gets overhyped and any good news get pushed aside.

How much did we hear about the TX/AZ/FL spike in cases then not hear anything about their subsequent slope downwards?Now some overhyping clinical trial pause
Read 7 tweets
17 Apr 20
Good afternoon everyone! The IHME model just updated again. As always, models are fed new info as it comes in to recalibrate its predictions. Let's see what has changed since its last update on Monday:
Overall US:
-# of total deaths decreased from 68,841 to 60,308
-Projected bed shortage at peak increased from 3,948 to 8,127.
-Peak hospital usage went from 4/10 to 4/14 peak daily death toll went from 4/13 to 4/15
-Under 200 deaths a day went from 5/27 to 5/10
Individual state: NY
-Peak hospital went from 4/8 to 4/15. Peak daily death toll went from 4/10 to 4/16
-Total deaths now projected to be 21,812 instead of 14,542
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/12 instead of 5/1.
Read 14 tweets
13 Apr 20
Good afternoon everyone! The IHME model just updated again. As always, models are fed new info as it comes in to recalibrate its predictions. Let's see what has changed since its last update on Friday.
Overall US:
# of total deaths increased from 61,545 deaths to 68,841 now
-Projected total bed shortage decreased from 12,697 to 3,948.
-Peak hospital usage went from 4/11 to 4/10, peak daily death toll went from 4/10 to 4/13(today)
-Under 200 deaths a day went from 5/21 to 5/27
Individual state: NY
-Peak hospital use remained at 4/8. Peak daily death toll went from 4/9 to 4/10.
-Total deaths now projected to be 14,542 instead of 13,463
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/1 instead of 4/29
Read 15 tweets
10 Apr 20
Good afternoon everyone! The IHME model just updated again. The changes at first glance don't seem as drastic as they have been in previous updates, but still worth looking over what has changed:
Overall US:
# of total deaths increased a tad from 60,414, to now 61,545 deaths
-Projected total bed shortage decreased from 15,852 to 12,697
-Peak hospital usage stayed at 4/11, peak daily death toll went from 4/12 to 4/10(today).
-Under 200 deaths a day went from 5/16 to 5/21
Individual state: NY
-Peak hospital use and peak daily death toll are the same (4/8 and 4/9 respectively)
-Total deaths now projected to be 13,463 instead of 13,307
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/29 instead of 4/28
Read 15 tweets

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