Because we're *not* vaccinating healthcare workers for this reason.

Many healthcare workers getting vaccinated are not even tangentially related to the ICU, or even providers *at all*, and what's actually happening is the fetishization of COVID precautions.
Choices are *justified* through ritualistic gestures at putatively epidemiologically significant concepts.

But the choice to put many non-health-related workers ahead of high risk people is the giveaway.
Likewise, that we have "prioritization" schemes, but allocated vaccines based on *total* population, suggests that those schemes are meaning-making rituals designed to build narratives of just desserts, not health-related efforts.
Important to understand that lots of people derive a lot of comfort from bureaucratic order, fixed plans, and clear rules. To a non-trivial extent, we are making destructive rules in order to satisfy this desire in a lot of high-neuroticism people.
Because while I agree and have been outspoken since Day 1 (and for me, Day 1 was December 29 in Hong Kong) of this pandemic about the need for major efforts to suppress it--- it's also true that governments have been more interested in public health theater than beating the virus
This is not because governments are ignorant or because they are malicious. It is because they are accountable, and what most people want is the public dramatization of the wrath, justice, and final forgiveness of the gods.
What people want is to have morally meaningful suffering which situates their private and often unrelated grievances in a larger myth which assigns them a heroic role. Alas this is not what actually contains a virus.
Governments are rationally responding to the desires of the people to make the unrighteous suffer and the righteous be rewarded, hence the emphasize on specific kinds of workers regardless of social benefits.

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More from @lymanstoneky

13 Jan
Saw @mattyglesias tweet about a poll of QAnon support (linked). I think it's a *bit* mistaken tho: the table he shared was QAnon support *among those who had heard of it*. But TONS more liberals have heard of QAnon than conservatives!
Here's the net favorability of QAnon (double-weighting the "very" folks) accounting for differences in who's even heard of QAnon. Image
Key to understand is Democrats and liberals are EXTREMELY anti QAnon not only because they are very unfavorable to it but because large shares of Rep/Con folks ***have never heard of QAnon***.
Read 22 tweets
13 Jan
I think it's fair to criticize US support of the Saudis in this war.

I also think it's unreasonable to argue that we should be providing even humanitarian aid in a region where we know both sides will steal it and use it to enhance their exploitation of the local people.
During the US Civil War, the Confederates starved because the Union starved them.

Food aid to the Confederacy would not have gone to slaves, folks. It would have gone to slave-owners.
It's possible to say both "we should not support the inhumane Saudi war effort" and also "if the Houthis want Iranian support, let Iran feed them."
Read 13 tweets
13 Jan
reading the self-important and vaguely-cultish textbooks by bayesians makes me want to go out and kill a sufficiently large number of bayesians that i can estimate the mean pitch of their screams
"when we have multiple models, we should choose one using Bayesian statistics"


you should do both and publish an appendix showing robustness tests, you cultist
"but my bayesian model takes 4 weeks to process i can't run 1,397 robustness tests"


Read 33 tweets
12 Jan
So I want to talk about vaccines and the scale of stupid involved in what's happening.
We've heard what % of the population is vaccinated. What % of vaccines are distribute. We've heard about prioritization.

But does anybody have any numbers on prioritization? I couldn't find any. So I made some.
How many people live in each state who are either healthcare workers or elders living in group quarters? With a little adjustment for population change, we can estimate this, and see if states were over- or under-allocated vaccines.
Read 39 tweets
12 Jan
I'm one of those approximately 14 Americans who thinks we should give PR statehood and have a new VRA but not DC statehood or universal mail-in balloting.
Good question! Let me list a few things.

Election day is a a kind of super-Federal Holiday, and no employer other than public safety organizations can schedule more than 4 hours of work.
Commit money to waive passport application fees, expand the agency producing them, and automatically issue them for each social security number or any time somebody interacts with the Federal government.
Read 17 tweets
12 Jan
This got me thinking. I instinctually was like, "This is definitely wrong..." and went to check it. And indeed, it's wrong. Graphs below!
So we have to start by asking, "How do we calculate excess deaths?"

By "excess deaths" we mean "deaths above the value we expect in this period based on some plausible counterfactual."
But.... what is the plausible counterfactual!?!?!

This turns out to be super important in a lot of cases. Deciding what the baseline would have been is kind of a big deal.
Read 39 tweets

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