eli Profile picture
13 Jan, 8 tweets, 3 min read
first map i guess! Jackson County, Illinois, 2008-2020 Presidential. Home to SIU Carbondale and late Sen. Paul Simon, and one of few downstate Dem counties. The last time a Republican Pres. candidate won Jackson Co. was 1984, but the county has shifted right recently.
Carbondale, a liberal university town and the largest city in the county, is the base of Dem support. But since 2008, rural areas have shifted heavily R.

Non-Carbondale vote:
2008 - 49.5% McCain, 47.7% Obama
2020 - 61.6% Trump, 36.1% Biden
At the same time, in 2020 Carbondale represented less of the total vote in Jackson County.

Carbondale vote share of total
2008 - 43.8%
2016 - 36.0%
This is mainly due to declining enrollment at SIU Carbondale and COVID.

Precincts covering SIUC (~80% Dem, doesn't include all/only students):
2008 - 2337 votes (20.8% of Carbondale's vote)
2012 - 2068 votes (20%)
2016 - 1730 votes (17.0%)
2020 - 766 votes (9.4%)
The especially large drop 2016-->2020 is due to SIU students not being on campus b/c of COVID. Overall, votes in Carbondale drastically dropped this election:
2012 - 10349 votes
2016 - 10153 votes
2020 - 8185 votes
This makes me skeptical that Jackson County is doomed to flip R in 2024. If votes from Cdale remained constant from 2016-->2020, Biden would've won it 51%-46% instead of 49.2%-47.9%, a 3.8% swing. SIUC is also stopping the bleed of enrollment numbers.
Biden also made slight gains over Clinton in non-Carbondale areas, from 33.8% to 36.1%. Jackson Co. obviously could flip in the near future, but the pandemic had a large effect on how it voted this year, and in 2024 it'll (hopefully) be different.

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