Here's my guess for the next month or so. McConnell runs out the clock on Trump's term so the new majority is sworn in and he's no longer Speaker. Then it will be Schumer who actually brings the impeachment trial to the Senate floor. 1/
By then, we'll have a much better picture of what happened on 1/6, who collaborated, who planned it, who kneecapped the response for hours, etc. All that will be "shocking," and will further incriminate Trump. McConnell probably already knows some of the details. 2/
Once Schumer starts the trial, McConnell will free his caucus to vote their minds, maybe even vote to convict himself. They'll get the 17 they need from safe seats. Then, critically, the vote to bar Trump from running again in 2024 won't require a single GOP vote. 3/
McConnell thinks he can thread that needle, to be able to convict on the weight of the evidence, but then avoid the blame for barring Trump from ever running again. That calculation isn't possible until the new Senate is sworn in. Hence the delay. We'll see if I'm right soon. 4/4

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More from @stealthygeek

14 Jan
Reminder that Donald John Trump entered the White House illegitimately as a traitor and career criminal, and that every action he took, every executive order he wrote, every appointment he made, every bill he signed, was another crime against We the People of the United States.
There was not a single second of the last four years of our rolling, waking nightmare when Donald John Trump was actually President. He was an usurper. An imposter. A thief. A shade pretending to humanity who begged for, received, and rewarded Putin's help in stealing our House.
There is no hyperbole in the preceding tweets, only publicly-available facts, explained in excruciating detail in the Mueller Report, which were ignored by our press only because Trump's illegitimately-appointed, hand-picked lapdog AG Barr lied, bold-faced, about its contents.
Read 7 tweets
2 Jan
Everything the GOP is doing now is not just an attack on democracy, but revenge against it.

They're trying to invent a crisis of legitimacy for Biden that does not exist, because they spent four years supporting a man who was never legitimately President.
The last time the GOP won a clear, legitimate, unblemished, uncontested election for President was 1988, and we booted that guy after just one term (no I don't count 2004 because he shouldn't have been running with an incumbent advantage in the first place).
The GOP isn't just indifferent to democray, they actively hate it and work to destroy it, because for more than thirty years it has not worked for them. A healthy political party interested in governance and representing We the People would change their messaging and policies.
Read 7 tweets
31 Dec 20
When Biden overhauls the Justice Department, we should really circle back to who killed Trump's pedophile pal Jeffery Epstein.
I mean remember how a forensic expert with something like 20,000 autopsies under his belt said Epstein was strangled in a homicide in his cell and Trump's Justice Department under Barr just sort of... shrugged.
Personally, and I said this at the time, I think Epstein probably did kill himself, but was strongly encouraged to do so by powerful men who wanted to see him silenced for their own reasons, and that the cameras and guards were cleared so he had a window to do so in private.
Read 4 tweets
8 Dec 20
What's so infuriating about this is, from a publishing standpoint, these political tell-all memoirs, ESPECIALLY from right-wingers, are almost always losers that fail to make back their enormous advances. The Obamas' books being an obvious exception. 1/
But DJT Jr's book, by contrast, was a dud despite the RNC buying over $300,000 worth of copies in its first weeks of release to give to donors (and to make sure it made the NYT Bestsellers list). These books are almost always a money-losing boondoggle for the publishers. 2/
Yet publishers continue to chase these books and are willing to sign million dollar advances in bidding wars to get them out of a sense of building prestige for their political imprints. Somehow no one seems to notice it's dragging down the profitability of the entire company. 3/
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