Was there excess death in Israel in 2020 due to Covid-19?
Let's try to have a proper look at the data.
- 3500 confirmed C-19 deaths in 2020.
- Worst all cause mortality in 20 years, with (only?) 2000 deaths above expected trend.
But what about population growth and aging?
1/8
Let's try to have a proper look at the data.
- 3500 confirmed C-19 deaths in 2020.
- Worst all cause mortality in 20 years, with (only?) 2000 deaths above expected trend.
But what about population growth and aging?
1/8
Starting with population growth, Israel has a very high growth compared to many western countries.
Accounting for that (adjusting previous years to 2020 pop.) shows 2020 was as bad as 2015, 2012 and 2008 and before.
Still clearly worse than last 4 years.
What about aging?
2/8
Accounting for that (adjusting previous years to 2020 pop.) shows 2020 was as bad as 2015, 2012 and 2008 and before.
Still clearly worse than last 4 years.
What about aging?
2/8
Last 4 years in Israel saw a steady and clear increase in age, showing in the number of people over 70, which saw a significant overall increase as well as in the portion of population.
I'll then adjust the two separate groups (>70 and <70) to 2020 population.
3/8
I'll then adjust the two separate groups (>70 and <70) to 2020 population.
3/8
Well, look at that.
2020 is worse than 2019 and 2018 and that's it!
Those two years were exceptionally low, and 2020 is only slightly higher than the trend.
I know I've seen this pattern before... Ah yes - 🇸🇪...
4/8
2020 is worse than 2019 and 2018 and that's it!
Those two years were exceptionally low, and 2020 is only slightly higher than the trend.
I know I've seen this pattern before... Ah yes - 🇸🇪...
4/8
Very similar pattern in Sweden, in fact this thread inspired me to look into Israel a similar way. Thanks @TLennhamn !
One country with devastating lockdowns, restrictions and masks.
The other without.
Exact same result.
Next...
5/8
One country with devastating lockdowns, restrictions and masks.
The other without.
Exact same result.
Next...
5/8
https://twitter.com/TLennhamn/status/1348743505435373569
Monthly deaths. Again similar to 🇸🇪.
Some with exceptionally low mortality, while some had excess death overlapping C-19 confirmed deaths, overall balanced.
Explanation?
I don't know.
I'm just an engineer, like "Ivor the Engineer" @FatEmperor.
I'm no Prof. Ferguson...
6/8
Some with exceptionally low mortality, while some had excess death overlapping C-19 confirmed deaths, overall balanced.
Explanation?
I don't know.
I'm just an engineer, like "Ivor the Engineer" @FatEmperor.
I'm no Prof. Ferguson...
6/8
My two cents (theory only):
- 2020 reached a peak # of frail people in Israel (old age + previous mild flu seasons).
- C-19 sadly reaped them.
So-called "dry tinder" effect.
C-19 deaths are mostly displaced "natural cause" deaths (+/- few months).
7/8
- 2020 reached a peak # of frail people in Israel (old age + previous mild flu seasons).
- C-19 sadly reaped them.
So-called "dry tinder" effect.
C-19 deaths are mostly displaced "natural cause" deaths (+/- few months).
7/8
Notes:
Data is from Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics (LMS / "Lamas"):
cbs.gov.il/he/subjects/Pa…
December 2020 numbers are provisional (I adjusted for very unlikely worst case to err on higher deaths #).
8/8
Data is from Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics (LMS / "Lamas"):
cbs.gov.il/he/subjects/Pa…
December 2020 numbers are provisional (I adjusted for very unlikely worst case to err on higher deaths #).
8/8
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