Saw @mattyglesias tweet about a poll of QAnon support (linked). I think it's a *bit* mistaken tho: the table he shared was QAnon support *among those who had heard of it*. But TONS more liberals have heard of QAnon than conservatives!
Here's the net favorability of QAnon (double-weighting the "very" folks) accounting for differences in who's even heard of QAnon.
Key to understand is Democrats and liberals are EXTREMELY anti QAnon not only because they are very unfavorable to it but because large shares of Rep/Con folks ***have never heard of QAnon***.
Here's how much people hear about QAnon. As you can see, QAnon is a muuuuuch bigger share of the Dem/Lib media diet than Rep/Con.

Survey link: docs.cdn.yougov.com/4yijjbkc2z/eco…
Sorry that first graph is Lib/Mod/Con I forgot to change the labels.
In a poll Jan 10-12, so AFTER the Capitol attack, ***half*** of conservatives report "never having heard of" QAnon.
The result of this is that statistically self-identified liberals make up about 9% of people who have self-reported favorable views of QAnon, moderates 43%, and conservatives 47%. Democrats make up 11%, moderates 26%, Republicans 64%.
The key point here is that while QAnon has a very clear and obvious partisan/ideological bias.... it's more prevalent among "Republicans" than among "Conservatives," and the gap is large.
So here's the kicker.

47% of QAnon supporters self-ID as conservative. So this isn't a die-hard conservative movement.

64% identify as Republican. That looks pretty bad for the GOP.

But 82% of QAnon supporters who voted were Trump voters.
It's important to keep in mind conservative =/= Republican =/= Trump voter.
Sorry, mistake: the correct proportions are:

41% of QAnoners are conservatives.

61% are Republicans.

76% are Trump voters.
Same proportions but I forgot to account there for who's actually heard of Q.
Key to understand though that "76% of QAnon people are Trump voters" does not mean "76% of Trump voters are QAnon people."

The true proportion seems to be about 10%. About 1 in 10 Trump voters has a favorable view of QAnon. Most only "somewhat."
Now I regard that proportion as absolutely bonkers and even "somewhat" favorable as pretty wacko.... but key to understand a non-trivial number of QAnon favorables are people who probably don't actually believe many/any conspiratorial claims but are mood affiliating.
On the other hand, a lot of people believe Q-ish conspiracies, but don't associate them with the word "QAnon." So it cuts both ways.

So I suspect "1 in 10 Trump voters believes in an absolutely insane conspiracy theory associated with an insurrection" is probably correct-ish.
Like y'all 24% of people who report favorable views of QAnon.... voted for Biden. SUggesting they do *not* have a super clear idea of the actual claims associated with that word.
This is different from e.g. claims of voter fraud. Republicans, Trump voters, and conservatives have very similar shares who believe enough voter fraud occurred to change the election outcome.
(about 1/3, btw)
oh sorry, that's fraud *in your state*. Solidly 70-80% of con/rep/Trump believe significant voter fraud occurred *somewhere*. Which is.... wild.
Also, when we talk about "obviously false beliefs," 38% of Biden voters said that no votes for dead people had been cast.

Y'all. I personally know of a dead person whose vote was very-much-illegally counted. It happened. Maybe not in big numbers, but it did.
About 10% of Trump voters approve of the Capitol insurrection, and yet 70% of Biden voters think the majority of Trump voters support the insurrection.

Polarization in a nutshell!
11% of Biden voters think Antifa staged the insurrection.

Turns out 11% of survey respondents believe whatever the surveyor asks.

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More from @lymanstoneky

15 Jan
i mean by my count is 550,000 but YMMV
The math on this pretty simple.

First, you take CDC's reported deaths. Then you make an adjustment for underreporting of recent deaths. Various ways to do that I won't get into here, but all methods yield similar results.
Then you compare deaths in each week to deaths in each week in prior years.

Various ways to set a baseline. But one uncontroversial way to set a *maximum* expectation for "normal deaths" is to take:
1) maximum deaths in a given week 2014-2019
2) multiply by pop growth
Read 6 tweets
15 Jan
When people think of "extremely functional microstates that just work for hard-to-explain reasons" they always leave out Mongolia and it's infuriating.

Mongolia has had *negative* excess deaths in 2020 y'all.
When we give examples of successful introduction of participatory demcoracy, rapid economic development, etc, we should really be giving Mongolia as a textbook example.
I am partly pro-Mongolian because they have anomalously high TFR for their income level, because Mongolians love the babies.

Also, lowkey, this is, um, a thing that is happening: Image
Read 26 tweets
14 Jan
I get the desire to punish everybody associated with Trump but "a bunch of people who've been running the country for 4 years and have a bunch of political supporters and cash being angry and bored" is perhaps not actually the ideal outcome.
One of the issues to reckon with is that Reconstruction didn't go far enough, but attempts at strict Denazifiction were widely regarded as mistakes. De-Baathification has been seen as a catastrophe for IRaq.
I'm not sure what defines the differences. But study of authoritarian regimes most definitely does *not* support the idea that you should always purge as much as possible!
Read 7 tweets
14 Jan
listening to Dan Carlin's Supernova in the East and super irritated that he focused on Hiro Onoda instead of the 10-million-times-more-interested Teruo Nakamura.
The last Japanese holdout to ever surrender was not Japanese imperial fanatic from the home islands but...

.... a Taiwanese aborigene who decided not to surrender with his unit but just build himself a hut on a deserted island and lived quietly until accidentally discovered
Also I guess I shouldn't call him Teruo Nakamura since he did not actually speak Japanese (or Chinese!). His name in his own language was Attun Palalin.
Read 13 tweets
13 Jan
I think it's fair to criticize US support of the Saudis in this war.

I also think it's unreasonable to argue that we should be providing even humanitarian aid in a region where we know both sides will steal it and use it to enhance their exploitation of the local people.
During the US Civil War, the Confederates starved because the Union starved them.

Food aid to the Confederacy would not have gone to slaves, folks. It would have gone to slave-owners.
It's possible to say both "we should not support the inhumane Saudi war effort" and also "if the Houthis want Iranian support, let Iran feed them."
Read 13 tweets
13 Jan
reading the self-important and vaguely-cultish textbooks by bayesians makes me want to go out and kill a sufficiently large number of bayesians that i can estimate the mean pitch of their screams
"when we have multiple models, we should choose one using Bayesian statistics"

no

you should do both and publish an appendix showing robustness tests, you cultist
"but my bayesian model takes 4 weeks to process i can't run 1,397 robustness tests"

yes

exactly
Read 33 tweets

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