Johar friends.
First of all understand the context that why BJP lost assembly election. There were 4reasons.
1- Break up between AAJSU and BJP.
2-JMM stiched a better alliance of jmm+Cong+RJD.
3-Factionalism in BJP state unit as many leaders have personal problems with Raghubar.
4-Tribal and non tribal issue,BJP first time gave a non tribal CM.
Despite all these odds ,BJP won 25 seats and lost 3-4 seats just by margin of 500-1k votes. Currently it has 26 MLAs including Babulal. AAJSU having 2mla supporting it.
Saryu Roy also supporting BJP now. Another ind from Hazaribagh dist is supporting BJP. So Total support for BJP is 30. It needs 12 more to form government in 81 mla assembly. Madhupur seat is vacant and BJP is all set to win this seat.
Now,there is news that at least 10 congressi mlas and 5 jmm MLAs planning to jump ship. Lone RJD MLA and ncp MLA too support BJP once new government will install. 2mlas from pakur,2from giridih and 1from jamtara ,these five from jmm will jump ship.
Why congressi mlas jumping ship.
1- Due to dispute between 2muslim face , cabinet reshuffling is not taking place.
2- MLAs from Ramgarh ,Bokaro,Dhanbad have resentment as they have no say in government.
3- only 2seat left in cabinet and Congress is planning to give it's quota
to that MLAs who came from jvm .
4- Anti incumbency is growing as Sibhu Soren himself warned CM publicly.

Now ,it's matter of time when these defection takes place. According to current news ,it will happen post Holi.

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More from @Pinkesh80864128

13 Jan
Some of my friends from IIT Guwahati conducted a survey for upcoming Assam election. As they want to remain anonymous ,I posted their survey here. It is based on public interaction, demography ,past results and possible alliance between Congress and AIUDF.
This survey will be Loksabha wise.
1-Karimganj loksabha- There are 8assembly seats there.
NDA is expecting to win-
Four seats are in 50:50 condition,they are.
1-karimganj north.
Karimganj south and Badarpur-lost
2-Silcher Loksabha-There are 7assembly seats.
NDA is winning
2seats ,Barkhola and Katigora, are in 50:50
Sonai is lost.
Read 17 tweets

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