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David Fickling Profile picture
@davidfickling
Jan 15, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
"All energy transitions have one thing in common: They are prolonged affairs that take decades to accomplish" 🤔 ImageImage
The quote is @VaclavSmil
@VaclavSmil Notable that if Germany had just maintained nuclear at 2005 levels, all that brown coal could have been shut down by now (though black coal will probably be first to go)
Link here: energy-charts.info/charts/energy_…

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More from @davidfickling

David Fickling Profile picture
Mar 26
I've long been a huge fan of @michaelxpettis and agree with him about most aspects of China's economy, but I think there's good evidence that clean tech, at least, is seeing solid, operationally-financed, productivity-enhancing growth right now. 🧵

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
A pretty common argument you hear these days to justify trade restrictions on Chinese EVs, solar panels, and batteries is that the industries are only prospering because of unfair subsidies. I don't think that's supported by the data:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
The argument goes something like this: China is awash in easy money from state banks; its renewable manufacturers are undercutting overseas rivals; ergo, its comparative advantage isn’t scale, efficiencies or innovation, but the availability of cheap government cash.
Read 14 tweets
David Fickling Profile picture
Aug 15, 2023
You may think you've heard recently that demand for crude oil is running at record levels — but we're still below a peak we hit five years ago.

A 🧵 to explain why:

#oott #climate
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Last September I made one of the scariest calls I've made as a columnist — a prediction that consumption of crude oil had already peaked, despite predictions that this was a decade or more in the future:

To have some accountability I went for a two-part wager:

1. that output of crude oil and condensates had already peaked;

2. that output of crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids had already peaked;

(we'll get to the terminology in a minute...)

Read 23 tweets
David Fickling Profile picture
Jul 14, 2023
Let's talk polymetallic nodules!

A thread on something that's (depending on your taste) a looming environmental disaster, or a key to the energy transition.

(Spoiler: I think both arguments are wrong)

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
You may be inclined to ask, polymetallic whats?

Well, much of the ocean floor is strewn with these potato-sized pebbles, which appear to form through complex processes over millions of years and are rich in manganese and other useful base metals. Image
From time to time, people have thought about mining these nodules. The most famous case was an extraordinary Cold War caper in the 1970s, when Howard Hughes set up a fake nodule mining company as cover for a CIA operation to salvage a sunken Soviet nuclear submarine. Image
Read 29 tweets
David Fickling Profile picture
Apr 4, 2023
OPEC+: "It's weird and troubling that the world isn't investing in more upstream oil production!"

Also OPEC+: *Doesn't invest in upstream oil*

Also also OPEC+: *Cuts output, adding to low-cost spare capacity that deters rivals from investing upstream*

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
I would like to suggest that the best explanation for this contradictory series of facts is that oil demand is in decline and every party is behaving rationally.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
If you think oil demand is in fact rising then the entire global oil industry, with ~$3 trillion of annual revenues and ~$500 billion of annual capex, has taken a collective decision to just leave trillions of money on the table for ~reasons~
Read 6 tweets
David Fickling Profile picture
Mar 30, 2023
Today I want to tell a story about the con artists of cryptoland, and how they have a lot more in common with the founding fathers of modern capitalism that one might initially think (thread):

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
At this point it's pretty clear that cryptoland is in deep trouble. Sam Bankman-Fried can now add allegations of bribing Chinese officials to the string of accusations stemming from the collapse of crypto exchange FTX: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
His nemesis Changpeng Zhao is now facing a lawsuit against his rival Binance exchange from the CFTC: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 21 tweets
David Fickling Profile picture
Mar 23, 2023
Vladimir Putin's warmongering may be doing more to reduce methane emissions than all the well-meaning promises of western governments. Thread follows:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Methane is a huge and somewhat underappreciated problem in climate.

It represents only about 1% of the tonnage of carbon dioxide that we pump out.

But the @IPCC_CH this week estimated it may be responsible for as much as 0.5C of warming so far, against 1.2C for CO2.
Governments are finally looking at tackling this directly. The Global Methane Pledge announced 18 months ago by the US and EU -- a plan to reduce human-caused methane emissions by 30% this decade -- now has more than 100 countries signed up to it.

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Read 20 tweets

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