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David Fickling Profile picture
@davidfickling
Jan 15, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
"All energy transitions have one thing in common: They are prolonged affairs that take decades to accomplish" 🤔 ImageImage
The quote is @VaclavSmil
@VaclavSmil Notable that if Germany had just maintained nuclear at 2005 levels, all that brown coal could have been shut down by now (though black coal will probably be first to go)
Link here: energy-charts.info/charts/energy_…

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More from @davidfickling

David Fickling Profile picture
Oct 1
How did the US invent solar power and dominate it for 60 years, before giving it up to China over the past decade?

The answer is, IMO, quite different to the stories we have told ourselves in recent years. And it has important lessons for the future.🧵

bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-…
Over the past few months I traveled to the former and future heartlands of the solar industry — Hemlock, Michigan and Leshan, Sichuan — to understand this chart.

How, in the space of 15 years, did China go from a bit-player in this key solar raw material to complete dominance? Image
There’s a ready explanation used by trade warriors as justification for tariffs and other bans: Beijing set out to dominate this industry, and may want to use solar energy as a weapon the way Moscow uses gas.

That’s the rationale behind the Biden administration’s 50% tariffs.
Read 18 tweets
David Fickling Profile picture
Jun 29
You might think that, installing more than half the world’s solar panels every year, China would be brimming over with solar installations.

One thing that really struck me, visiting over the past week, is how much unexploited potential is still there. 🧵 Image
Looking out of plane and train windows in China these days you will see a lot of scenes like the above one. And at first glance it looks like a solar farm.

But it’s actually a farm farm! Polytunnels like this — often quite cheap-looking, with open sides —are everywhere.
China has 60% of the world’s greenhouses, covering about 8,000sq km according to this study last year.

The better crop yields from this have been key to keeping the country fed.

earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152874/…
Read 16 tweets
David Fickling Profile picture
May 11
A thing people really do not understand about US companies fretting about their per-car EV losses stories is that this is almost entirely a spurious issue about the unique way US accountants treat certain types of R&D spending. 🧵

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
When you hear a Ford executive saying “we are losing $100k per EV” your bullshit detector should be flashing red hot.

An F-150 Lightning EV costs about $55k to buy. It does not cost anything like $155k to make.

It’s 98 kWh battery will be, at $140/kWh, a bit under $14k.
And battery prices are considerably below that right now. Ford should be getting it for $12k or less. A Chinese company will be paying below $10k.
Read 25 tweets
David Fickling Profile picture
Mar 26
I've long been a huge fan of @michaelxpettis and agree with him about most aspects of China's economy, but I think there's good evidence that clean tech, at least, is seeing solid, operationally-financed, productivity-enhancing growth right now. 🧵

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
A pretty common argument you hear these days to justify trade restrictions on Chinese EVs, solar panels, and batteries is that the industries are only prospering because of unfair subsidies. I don't think that's supported by the data:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
The argument goes something like this: China is awash in easy money from state banks; its renewable manufacturers are undercutting overseas rivals; ergo, its comparative advantage isn’t scale, efficiencies or innovation, but the availability of cheap government cash.
Read 14 tweets
David Fickling Profile picture
Aug 15, 2023
You may think you've heard recently that demand for crude oil is running at record levels — but we're still below a peak we hit five years ago.

A 🧵 to explain why:

#oott #climate
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Last September I made one of the scariest calls I've made as a columnist — a prediction that consumption of crude oil had already peaked, despite predictions that this was a decade or more in the future:

To have some accountability I went for a two-part wager:

1. that output of crude oil and condensates had already peaked;

2. that output of crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids had already peaked;

(we'll get to the terminology in a minute...)

Read 23 tweets
David Fickling Profile picture
Jul 14, 2023
Let's talk polymetallic nodules!

A thread on something that's (depending on your taste) a looming environmental disaster, or a key to the energy transition.

(Spoiler: I think both arguments are wrong)

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
You may be inclined to ask, polymetallic whats?

Well, much of the ocean floor is strewn with these potato-sized pebbles, which appear to form through complex processes over millions of years and are rich in manganese and other useful base metals. Image
From time to time, people have thought about mining these nodules. The most famous case was an extraordinary Cold War caper in the 1970s, when Howard Hughes set up a fake nodule mining company as cover for a CIA operation to salvage a sunken Soviet nuclear submarine. Image
Read 29 tweets

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