1/

The SNP versus the Law

The SNP is in trouble. They know it and we know it. It’s almost certain that Nicola Sturgeon will need to resign for lying to Holyrood

This explains the frantic calls for another referendum

Brexit is done and the sky didn’t fall in
2/

This removes their number one Bête Noire. A Disastrous hard Brexit

They were banking on that happening. There will be, and are, difficulties with the new trading arrangements but these will play out over years and will be sorted one way or another
3/

The Law

As it stands, the SNP cannot call another referendum without the permission of the UK Parliament

Some people dispute this, including many in the SNP

So. What’s the alternative?

The could call a non binding non legal referendum but what’s the point

Unionist will
4/

boycott it and non SNP councils will refuse to participate

Although that’s their latest plan, it’s a non starter

In the absence of a S30 order their only recourse is to test the competence to hold another referendum in the Supreme Court

This is fraught with dangers
5/

They have to balance the possibility of getting a positive SC judgement against getting a negative judgement

I’ll start with the negative judgement first

Were the Scot Gov to go to the SC they would risk not one but two massively disastrous and fatal outcomes
6/

Were the SC to pass judgement that only Westminster can authorise another referendum, not only does that make it impossible for another referendum to be legally held but the Scot Gov would have explicitly accepted that the SC is the final arbiter of the Law in the UK
7/

There would be no route to another referendum. Not via the court and not via WM

That would then remove the very reason for the SNP’s existence. For, if they cannot secure independence, what are they for?

You might think that that would be the worse possible outcome but no
8/

It’s not. There’s an even worse outcome for the SNP

They go to the SC and get a judgement that they can authorise and legally carry out another referendum

Although WM could legislate to over rule this judgement it’s highly unlikely they would

How could it be worse then?
9/

Economics

Scotland’s economy is in its worse position (pre Covid) in our lifetimes. Our deficits have never ever been this high before and Covid is about to make it a lot worse

Here’s how it could get a lot worse

The SNP accept that Scotland would have to accept its share
10/

of the National debt but they’ve never explicitly laid that out. They keep clinging to the idea that Scotland has no debt

In the event of another referendum in which the SNP win a mandate for independence the Tories would need to go into all out attack mode

The pandering
11/

to Scotland that they’ve had to do for years and years would no longer be viable. The SNP is driven by two things. A desire for independence and a pathological hatred of all things Tory

The Tories could finally take the gloves off and show the Scots what real power is
12/

In the event of a bad breakup ( it’s likely to be bad due to the SNP’s hatred of all things Tory) the SNP would threaten to renege on taking our share of the debt

Since that threat is real the Tories have numerous options

Their number one weapon is to tell the SNP that
13/

if Scotland votes for independence all financial support, via the fiscal transfer, would stop on the day of the vote, not the day of independence

In addition, all tax raising by the HMRC will immediately cease and all benefits will immediately cease on the day of the vote.
14/

There’s a very good reason to make this implicit threat if the SNP play hard ball

The Scottish Government doesn’t have the ability to either collect all taxes or pay all pensions and benefits. This in itself would need to be tackled. This would likely take a couple of years
15/

to put these systems into place and test them. That in itself would delay the vote for a couple of years

The Scot Gov would also have to go to the markets and try and borrow money to plus the massive hole that would be left on the day of the vote

That’s no easy task
16/

The UK would accept no liability for these loans and even if the vote was no the liability for these loans would fall squarely on the Scottish Government. That in itself is a legal minefield of who is liable fir this borrowing.
17/

So. You can already see that getting a legal sanction to carry out another ref is even worse than not getting this sanction

The English have had to put up with the Scots complaining for decades and decades. At some point they will just say enough

Even if the above was
18/

carried out, Scotland would still need to accept the liability for its share of the national debt. Scotland has run up more debt than it’s legal share so even just paying it’s share is a win win

The separatist Scots massively underestimate the disdain that the southern
19/

Tories have for them. They have had to bite their lips for years but in an all out economic conflict between the UK and Scotland there would only be one winner and it wouldn’t be us
20/

Some might see this as a brutal assault on Scottish democracy but since the SNP are constantly saying that we would be better off with independence then the UK refusing to collect taxes and issue benefits would be no problem for us. We could simply do it ourselves

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇬🇧Edward Thomas Black

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇬🇧Edward Thomas Black Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @edglasgow59

23 Nov 20
1/

The missing Scottish Referendum of 2021

Every day we hear Nationalists and their politicians go on about another referendum in 2021

It’s not happening. It’s never going to be happening and Sturgeon knows it’s not going to be happening

Why not?

Well. That’s easy
2/

For one thing, the SNP simply cannot call a referendum. Sure, they can hold a non binding referendum, but even that would be subject to legal challenge

They simply can’t have a legal referendum because legally, they don’t have the power to call one

That power resides in WM
3/

and only WM. Referendums are reserved and a Section 30 order is needed in order to have one

Boris Johnson is not going to allow one. He’s already said so and stated that the referendum in 2014 must be respected. Not only because it was the biggest turnout in British History
Read 8 tweets
21 Nov 20
1/

Although this is over 4 years old it should terrify every single person in Scotland

Why?

Nicola Sturgeon has decided, that for her, her teenage dream of destroying the British state is more important than just about anything in her life Image
2/

And many Scots also agree with her

If you look to Africa you will find Poverty, corruption and third world countries. The reason why most of Africa is still poor is because they do not have developed advanced economy

Without a developed advanced economy you simply cannot
3/

have good health care, good education or decent welfare. All of these come from having a good economy. We all look to the Scandinavian countries and admire their systems. Their excellent health, education and welfare systems. They only have these because their economy
Read 7 tweets
2 Nov 20
1/

(- Follow the Money! -)

A Forensic walk through who receives Fiscal Grants in the UK and who pays for them......

In every country in the world every citizen either receives from the state or contributes to the state
2/

This also applies to regions within countries. In Germany, for instance, most people and regions will receive fiscal grants, and these will be paid for by the richest parts of Germany

👇

voxeu.org/article/german…
3/

The same happens in the UK. Only three regions of the UK run fiscal surpluses (they create more wealth than they spend). They are

London
The East
The South East

But what happens at the country level?

That’s easy. There is a very simple formula to calculate whether
Read 22 tweets
17 Oct 20
1/

Lying in the Workplace

Everyone who works has told lies in the workplace. You might have covered up for a colleague or lied about why you were late

Everyone does it, but these lies have little consequence

However, lying about the big things does

If you lied to your boss
2/

about how much work you did for a client could get you sacked

Lying to your board of directors about the financial state of your company could get you sacked and possibly investigated by the police

Lying about the future prospects of the division you lead could get you
3/

sacked

Lying about your pupils in your school could get you sacked

In virtually every walk of like you can get sacked for lying in the workplace, with one exception

POLITICS

Politics appears to be the only profession where you can easily get away with lying
Read 5 tweets
17 Oct 20
1/

I’ve been publishing datasets for 5 years now

Not one single mainstream Scottish politician has even retweeted them

Not one!

They show the horrific state of our finances

I don’t give a fuck if we vote Indy. I’ll be living in England by then

Countries get the
2/

Politicians they deserve. If Scotland wants a country run by sexual deviants, Liars, Thieves, Criminals, Anti Semites etc etc then that’s what it will get

I won’t be bothered in the least because by then I’ll be living in England and will do what I can to inform the English
3/

just how much Scotland, Wales and NI have ripped them off and constantly complain than the English don’t subsidise them enough

According to the Regional ONS report England has given the rUK around £425bn over the last 21 years

Not only did England have to borrow this
Read 6 tweets
15 Oct 20
1/

Indy Scotland. This is how it goes

Scotland becomes independent in a referendum. 62% to 38%

Even before the referendum property prices have fallen and the financial industry has started to relocate to England. Wealthier Scots with liquid assets have moved them to England
2/

The emotion pull of Independence has proved too much for the unionists. The young vote for it in their droves. Nicola Sturgeon has said that Scotland will be a model for other societies. Welcoming, inclusive and outward looking

But clouds are on the horizon

The Tories
3/

have stated time and time again that Scotland’s finances are in a perilous state but the SNP say it’s just propaganda

The SNP say that they will use the pound and no one can stop them

Within a few weeks of the vote, the reality bites. Since Scotland will become
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!