Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
@jam_croissant
Jan 28, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
1/x It’s do or die time... the animals have broken out of their cages & are breaking things, & the zoo keepers are on the run. They have broken Gary out. What the animals don’t realize though is that in scaring the zoo keepers away they may no longer have any food to eat... That
2/x & oh yeah, you don’t want to see Gary hangry. Certain HF have been forced into rolling liquidations to meet margin & de-lever for redemptions/degrossing. The Q? is, is the deleveraging over yet or is it just beginning? Not surprisingly as that Q? Hangs in the air, we ended
3/x the day @ our long discussed critical point in SPX of the 1 std dev down of the 20 days. As I’ve mentioned in the past, a SUSTAINED break (2 day close) below this level could cause other systematic strats to sell off & w/ Gary on the verge of morphing into Kong, the zoo
4/x keepers are calling in the Fed(s) (Fed/sec) for some help getting the animals back under control, so they can feed Gary & get the zoo back under control. As they are likely giving guidance to the brokers to get this under control, as every major retail broker seems to be

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Cem Karsan 🥐

Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jam_croissant

Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
Dec 25, 2023
LAST CHRISTMAS I called for a crash,
But the very next day…vol supply took it away.
This year…I’ll save you the tears,
I'll give you something special…
Once bitten & twice shy,
I keep my distance, but the crash, based on macro, still catches my eye…

Tell me baby, do you recognize the thing supporting SPU’s?
Well, it's been a year of limitless structured product flows…It shouldn’t surprise you.
Happy Christmas, the banks structured it & sold it.
With a note saying "It’s better than the market!" & They meant it.

Now, I know, it seems what a fool shorts have been…
But if you unpinned Volatility on a blowoff top, I know the macro landscape would tempt me again…
Last Christmas, populism, war & fiscal had me call for a crash,
But the very next day, vol supply took it away…
This year, hasn’t muted those fears,
& may still give us something special.
Read 7 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
Dec 25, 2022
TRADING VOL IN THE COMING WINTER WONDERLAND

Storm sirens🚨 ring, R U listening?
In the gutter, cheap equity skew is a-glistening!

A beautiful sight.
We're lucky🍀 tonight.
Trading vol in a coming winter wonderland.

Gone away is the call squeeze…
Next up comes the put squeeze!
To sing a calm song
While most PM’s puke🤮their longs
Trading vol in a coming winter wonderland!

In the crash, we can build a long,man!
We'll pretend that we r J.P.Getty
We'll say ‘R U offered?’
They'll say ‘Yeah man!’
But we’ll separate the baby from the bath when SPU’s R down!
Later on, we'll conspire,
As we count our 💰, amidst the fire 🔥 ,
To face new longs, unafraid,
With the sound portfolio that we've made,
Trading vol in the coming winter wonderland…

In the crash, we can build a long, man!
We'll pretend that we are J.Paul Getty.
Read 5 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
Oct 22, 2022
1/X If U R 👀 TODAYS’ PUBLIC REMOVAL OF FORMER 🇨🇳 PRES. HU JINTAO IN DISBELIEF👇 A brief🔬 into the childhood & upbringing of Xi Jinping by @NewYorker: “(Xi Jinping’s) father, Xi Zhongxun,🇨🇳’s propaganda minister @ the time, had been fomenting revolution since the age of 14, when
2/X he & classmates tried to poison a teacher whom they considered a counterrevolutionary.He was sent to jail, where he joined the Communist Party. Eventually he became a high-ranking commander, which plunged him into the Party’s internal feuds. In 1935, a rival faction accused
3/X Xi’s father of disloyalty & ordered him to be buried alive, but Mao defused the crisis…When Xi Jinping was 5, his father was promoted to Vice-Premier, & his son often visited him @ Zhongnanhai, the secluded compound for top leaders.Xi was admitted to the exclusive August 1st
Read 9 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
Oct 17, 2022
1/x In a 🌎 of secular inflation, the proper response to 📈 in demand is to 📈 supply. U currently👂a lot of talk about this, as it relates to commodities. But what about labor costs?? As protectionism grows, we are increasingly turning away the exact supply we need most of all.
2/x“Unfortunately, the H-1B process is falling increasingly out of date & badly failing to serve its original purpose of turning on the talent tap for top innovative companies. Congress sets an annual cap on how many H-1B visa holders can come in, & that cap is now far below what
3/x the labor market demands. The crush of applications once the 🪟 opens for a given year on March 1 is so intense that, in every year since 2014, USCIS has (had to) resorted to a lottery system. That means that year in & year out, 100,000’s of high-skilled workers from abroad
Read 9 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
Sep 24, 2022
End of an era.’Roger v. Rafa, just 1 name apiece required, belongs up there w/McEnroe v. Borg, Evert v. Navratilova, Sampras v. Agassi, Ali v. Frazier, Magic v. Bird, Brady v. Manning.
Federer & Nadal showed off individual greatness & compelling contrasts across their 40 matches,
14 @ Grand Slams: righty v. lefty, attacker v. grinder, seeming effortlessness v. relentless intensity.
& yet, there was an unmistakable element of poetry w/these 2 men who challenged each other & elevated eachother performing as partners, slapping palms & sharing smiles.’
“It’s been a perfect journey,” Federer said.“I‘d do it all over again.” When the match & w/it, his time in tennis ended, Federer hugged Nadal, & then began crying. Nadal wiped tears away, too.
“When Roger leaves the tour, an important part of my life is leaving, too,” said Nadal.
Read 4 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
Aug 6, 2022
1/x “The near-term prognosis for inflation is not good. Each month’s 12-month inflation rate matches the previous month’s rate, + a new month, - the corresponding month dropped from the previous year... The next 4 months to be dropped from 2021 will be 0.9%, 0.5%, 0.2%, & 0.3%,
2/x respectively. The Clev Fed produces an “inflation nowcast” which estimates what the monthly inflation would be if the month ended today. If their nowcast is correct, the 0.9% from June 2021 will be replaced with 1% for June 2022. If inflation in each subsequent month through
3/x year-end 2022 matches the average inflation rate over the prior year, we should finish the summer @ 9.9% & finish the year @ 10.8%. If, alternatively, monthly inflation recedes to match the trailing 36-month average, then the current 8.6% inflation rate would remain steady
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(