1/ The bluechecks can scream all they like.

But the Israeli trends are awful compared to countries with fewer vaccinations - like the US.

Since early January, the US rate of positive tests is down 35%, hospitalizations 28%, ICU beds 20%. And the declines are accelerating...
2/ In Israel, the rate of positive tests is about 50% than it was in early January and the number of "serious cases" is 45% higher. (The Israeli vaccination was remarkably fast and targeted - by Jan. 8, 70% of Israelis over 60 had received at least one dose.)...
3/ Now you can argue the US was further along in its Farr's Law curve than Israel - BUT THE POINT OF VACCINATIONS IS TO ALTER THE NATURAL COURSE OF THE EPIDEMIC AND SPEED ITS END. Right now, Israel provides NO evidence mRNA vaccines do so. Maybe it will in a few more days...
4/ In just the last couple of days Israel has seen some declines in the number of new serious cases - though no fall in test positivity. But given the natural course of the epidemic, cases SHOULD be dropping by now. The surprise will be if they don't...
5/ This does not mean vaccines don't reduce mild or moderate cases in generally healthy people (at the cost of serious side effects for many). We have evidence for that. That's what the clinical trials proved. BUT THEY PROVED NOTHING MORE...
6/ And the Israeli experience TO THIS POINT offers no evidence that on a population-wide basis they are helpful. If anything, the opposite. Hopefully that will change, and very soon.

Hope isn't evidence.

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More from @AlexBerenson

1 Feb
1/ Israel has updated its post-vaccine infection data again and it now appears clear the Pfizer vaccine isn’t offering close to the 95% protection that the clinical trials claimed. They now report 531 infections one week post second dose in the over-60 cohort (740,000 people)...
2/ Three days ago they reported 317 infections - but that included some in people under 60, who are excluded this time around. A decent estimate would be 250 positive tests, 22 severe cases, and three deaths in a cohort of roughly 600,000 people over 60 OVER A THREE-DAY PERIOD...
3/ Are those rates better than the overall over-60 cohort? Yes, they seem to be. But they don’t look to represent anything like 95% protection on a population-wide basis - and there is likely to be selection bias (the healthiest and most health-conscious were vaccinated first)...
Read 5 tweets
1 Feb
1/ BTW: if you think the @US_FDA rigorously reviewed the vaccines before the emergency approval:

Here's the briefing book the FDA and Biogen put together for aducanumab, an experimental Alzheimer's drug.

It's 343 pages and goes into astonishing detail...
2/ It feels like the agency considered every dose ever given. And aducanumab remains under review, even though we have no good treatments for Alzheimer's and it has no real safety issues - the only question is efficacy.

The briefing books for the mRNA vaccines are far different.
3/ They're about 50 pages long and essentially all they do is summarize the results of the Phase III clinical trials. Animal studies, mechanism of action, dose-ranging studies, potential off-target effects, and issues around LNPs are barely mentioned...
Read 5 tweets
1 Feb
1/ Masks aren't the answer.
Lockdowns aren't.
School closures aren't.
Travel bans aren't.
The early Israeli data suggest vaccines won't be either. (Just as they aren't for the flu.)

A year in, the choice is ever clearer:

Live with the ro, or destroy ourselves trying to stop it.
2/ LOOK AROUND. Israel has shut its borders. New Zealand may ban most travel through 2021. France has stopped non-European Union travel.

In the US, many teachers unions want to keep schools closed into 2022. Pressure to vaccinate children (WHO ARE AT <>ZERO RISK) is rising...
3/ The live arts, music, and sports are basically extinct.

Colleges are under INSANE restrictions (again, for students who are at no risk).

If you want to eat at a restaurant in NYC, it looks like this:
Read 8 tweets
30 Jan
1/ Another oddity in the vaccine adverse events reports: one Moderna trial death was a suicide in the vaccine arm. It was judged unrelated; someone approached me and told me he had information suggesting otherwise, but I couldn't confirm it and so didn't mention it...
2/ The reason I do now: The VAERS reports contain two suicide reports, both very shortly after vaccination. Female suicide by firearm is rare - it happens, but it’s rare. You can judge the causation in the second case for yourself...
3/ There’s also an unusual report of a 44-year-old with no psychiatric history who had a psychotic break less than 72 hours after her shot. Look, it happens. The THC gummy probably didn’t help (though 2.5 mg is a tiny dose). But to get so sick out of the blue at 44 is very rare.
Read 4 tweets
30 Jan
Imma help you so you don’t waste anyone’s time. It is multiple standard deviations higher than other vaccines. Comparing it to background rates when you don’t know the percentage of deaths that are reported - when you can’t guess to a factor of 10 - makes your math meaningless...
The fairer comparison is other vaccines (there may be some reporting bias that pushes the #COVID numbers up, but it will be far more modest than the errors you face).

Here’s what we know. Not guess, know.

1) The clinical trials showed 20% Grade 3/4 adverse events post-shot...
2/ The VAERS descriptions make clear that many severe events, including deaths and hospitalizations in healthy young people, followed vaccinations within hours...
Read 5 tweets
30 Jan
1/ The idea we will have a sharp snapback in socializing and sex post-Covid has become conventional wisdom. I understand why people want to believe it. Unfortunately I’ve grown to think they’re probably wrong, for multiple reasons...
2/ Dating and sex among young people had been in secular decline for over a decade, probably due to Internet/social media addiction (forget the idiotic heavy breathing about Tinder hookup culture, this is true - the stats are clear). Covid has worsened Internet dependence...
3/ That isn’t going to reverse.

Plus Covid won’t burn out all at once. And even after it does, the media won’t let it go. Look at the talk of new strains. The 1918 flu was genuinely terrible. People wanted to forget it. Not this time; many of us now love the kingdom of the sick.
Read 4 tweets

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