Three Laws of Distress, picked up from the world's top distressed investors, and operating many such deals myself. And relevant to the times yet again:
(1) Find demand and profit as quickly as possible. Distressed situations typically involve some fundamental change in demand or competitiveness.
Thus, finding new sources of demand and profit are crucial. Distress can feel like a hall of mirrors, and you may not understand what is happening, or why, until well after the fact. But steady operating profit will never lie to you—find it as quickly as possible.
(2) Excise the cancer as quickly as possible, even if with a butter knife. Do not wait around for things to improve in a distressed situation. Letting time pass metastasizes it.
(3) Liquidity is paramount. Do not allow yourself to get cornered for reasons that you may not see at the time, such as being cross-collateralized or having fixed expenses that are too high.
Thus, never allow your cash to go below a predetermined, quarantined amount. If the choice is between losing cash and shutting down operations, then preserve your cash.

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More from @NICKRADICAL4

29 May
An excellent overview of today's coal market (h/t: @ShaiDardashti):
spglobal.com/platts/en/mark…
"People need to get over price and become more concerned about availability," said a US-based coal consultant. "This market is so inelastic. The demand for energy in Q3 has spiked and they can't find the coal."
"Coal is telling the market something is wrong," said the US consultant. "The demand for energy is increasing faster than supply. It's starting to smell like 2007."
Read 4 tweets
12 Oct 20
At market cap of roughly $160 million and over 800,000 hectares under management, $CRESY is a gem holding in agricultural commodities. Ignoring its extensive other assets, many of which are publicly-quoted, this works out to a mere $200 per hectare...
Cattle land trades for around $3,000 per hectare in Argentina, and crop land can trade for closer to $15,000 per hectare. All of $CRESY — even ignoring extensive other assets — has a price of $200 per hectare...
The top equity positions in commodities — in the world — may well be Cresud $CRESY for agriculture and livestock, and Antero $AR for natural gas and NGLs...
Read 4 tweets

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