US 3-Year Notes - $58BN auction - Results:

- High Yield Rate: 0.196% (prev 0.234%)
- Bid-Cover Ratio: 2.39 vs prev 2.52 vs 6mth avg 2.4

- WI: 0.196%

- Dealers: 31.2% vs prev 33.2% vs 6mth avg 34.3%
- Direct Accepted: 16.0% vs prev 14.6% vs 6mth avg 13.8%
- Indirect Accepted: 52.7% vs prev 52.2% vs 6mth avg 52.0%

Average auction. Auction size was joint largest on record.

Yield was lower than last month auction at 0.234%.

Bid-cover came in a slightly lower than average. The dealers were saddled with less than average.


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More from @MichaelGoodwell

11 Feb
🛢️ Commodities May Have Just Begun a New Supercycle - JPM

/1 Image
Prices may also jump as an “unintended consequence” of the fight against climate change, which threatens to constrain oil supplies while boosting demand for metals needed to build renewable energy infrastructure, batteries and electric vehicles.

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Read 4 tweets
9 Feb
It's interesting looking back at articles which were written when the yield curve (2s10s) inverted in August 2019.

There were a few people who wrote that the Fed will respond to prevent a recession, trade uncertainty and the lack of inflation was driving down yields.

Famously, Yellen said that she doesn't think the US economy was heading towards a recession, although she did admit that the odds had clearly risen.

So was this time different? Well, obviously the answer is no.

Every recession since the 1980s has followed a 2s10s inversion.

The yield curve inverted in mid-August 2019. According to the NBER, the recession started in February 2020 - a lag of just 6 months, the shortest lag compared to the last five recessions.

Before the 2020 recession, the average number of months was 17.

Read 6 tweets
8 Feb
Central Bank Speeches schedule for the week ahead:
🇪🇺 ECB:

Monday, 8 February 2021: Christine Lagarde
Tuesday, 9 February 2021: Philip R. Lane
Wednesday, 10 February 2021: Fabio Panetta
Wednesday, 10 February 2021: Christine Lagarde
Thursday, 11 February 2021: Luis de Guindos…
🇬🇧 BoE:

Wednesday 10 February 2021: Andrew Bailey (at Mansion House
Read 4 tweets
8 Feb
The Week Ahead

A slightly quieter week compared to last week, but still a decent amount of data releases on tap.


🇩🇪 German Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)
🇪🇺🇩🇪 Sentix Investor Sentiment
🇺🇸 BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jan)
🇦🇺 NAB Business Confidence (Jan)
🇳🇿 Inflation Expectations (QoQ)


🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
🇦🇺 Westpac Consumer Sentiment
🇨🇳 CPI (Jan), PPI (YoY) (Jan)

Read 8 tweets
8 Feb
‘Moment of weakness’: Amateur investors left counting GameStop losses - FT

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- “I rate Elon Musk quite highly and trusted him . . . his tweet was a big influence. With his support it appeared that the retail traders would win,” she said.

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7 Feb
Melvin Capital, GameStop and the road to disaster - FT

- Hedge fund faces questions over risk management after losing half its money in a Reddit trading frenzy

- By using the options market for the bet, which forced it to disclose the position, Melvin had put a target on itself.

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