Hang on for wild oil, copper ride in commodity supercycle: Goldman's Currie

🔹 Oil has a 'lot of upside', copper prices already at supercycle levels

🔹 Supercycle reminiscent of 1970s spike rather than 2000s bull run

🔹 Supply crunch could play into shale, core OPEC+ hands

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'Key metals such as copper are already at supercycle levels and that the story has only just begun.'

/2 Image
Supercycle origins and the shift in demand:

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OPEC, shale and investment:

4/4 Image

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More from @MichaelGoodwell

14 Feb
Commodity Call - ANZ

🔹 Copper supercharged

/1 Image
🔹 Copper remains in bull cycle

🔹 A sustained demand strength

/2 ImageImageImageImage
Copper continued...

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Read 6 tweets
12 Feb
🇬🇧 Series of UK headlines hitting tonight:

1. Social distancing rules in England could remain until autumn - The Times

🔹 “The thinking is that social distancing will need to be in place for a long time to come,” a Whitehall source said.

/1


thetimes.co.uk/article/social…
2. Stealth tax raid on personal allowances to raise £6bn - The Telegraph

🔹 Planned increases to £12,500 and £50,000 thresholds face axe in move that would mean tens of millions paying more.

/2


telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
3. Fuel duty rise in next month’s Budget will a blow to the North, Chancellor Rishi Sunak warned - The Sun

/3


thesun.co.uk/news/14025424/…
Read 4 tweets
11 Feb
🛢️ Commodities May Have Just Begun a New Supercycle - JPM

/1
Prices may also jump as an “unintended consequence” of the fight against climate change, which threatens to constrain oil supplies while boosting demand for metals needed to build renewable energy infrastructure, batteries and electric vehicles.

/2
Read 4 tweets
9 Feb
US 3-Year Notes - $58BN auction - Results:

- High Yield Rate: 0.196% (prev 0.234%)
- Bid-Cover Ratio: 2.39 vs prev 2.52 vs 6mth avg 2.4

- WI: 0.196%

/1
- Dealers: 31.2% vs prev 33.2% vs 6mth avg 34.3%
- Direct Accepted: 16.0% vs prev 14.6% vs 6mth avg 13.8%
- Indirect Accepted: 52.7% vs prev 52.2% vs 6mth avg 52.0%

/2
Average auction. Auction size was joint largest on record.

Yield was lower than last month auction at 0.234%.

Bid-cover came in a slightly lower than average. The dealers were saddled with less than average.

/3
Read 4 tweets
9 Feb
It's interesting looking back at articles which were written when the yield curve (2s10s) inverted in August 2019.

There were a few people who wrote that the Fed will respond to prevent a recession, trade uncertainty and the lack of inflation was driving down yields.

1/
Famously, Yellen said that she doesn't think the US economy was heading towards a recession, although she did admit that the odds had clearly risen.

So was this time different? Well, obviously the answer is no.

Every recession since the 1980s has followed a 2s10s inversion.

2/
The yield curve inverted in mid-August 2019. According to the NBER, the recession started in February 2020 - a lag of just 6 months, the shortest lag compared to the last five recessions.

Before the 2020 recession, the average number of months was 17.

3/
Read 6 tweets
8 Feb
Central Bank Speeches schedule for the week ahead:
🇪🇺 ECB:

Monday, 8 February 2021: Christine Lagarde
Tuesday, 9 February 2021: Philip R. Lane
Wednesday, 10 February 2021: Fabio Panetta
Wednesday, 10 February 2021: Christine Lagarde
Thursday, 11 February 2021: Luis de Guindos

ecb.europa.eu/press/calendar…
🇬🇧 BoE:

Wednesday 10 February 2021: Andrew Bailey (at Mansion House

bankofengland.co.uk/news
Read 4 tweets

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