Thread by @abirballan

"All mortality models turned out to be wrong."
Let's just accept that we can't predict how the virus will behave, how much pre-existing immunity there is, when will new waves come and go and when will herd immunity be achieved. 1/n
pandata.org/panda-first-pr…

Lockdowns harm and should be unlawful regardless of the disease.
"Even if government had been correct that 89,000 – 351,000 people would die of COVID in the first wave, PANDA’s analysis showed that more damage would be done through lockdowns." 2/n

"PANDA predicted that the second wave would not kick off until winter. We were clearly wrong."
When we make mistakes @PanData19, we own them and correct them. Governments make mistakes and persist on the same course. 3/n

"PANDA’s message remains unchanged. In order to ensure that we abide by tried & tested principles of public health, we must first do no harm. We must not focus on one virus alone and we cannot implement measures until we understand the collateral damage such measures will cause."

"Rather than simply criticising the response, we have come up with a practical and pragmatic set of policy recommendations that we hope will encourage debate and find a solution to the current predicament that the world finds itself in." 5/n
pandata.org/about/protocol…

A little less hubris. A lot more humility. Let's stop the predictions and just deal with the situation on the ground
1) protect the vulnerable
2) support healthcare workers
3) allocate resources based on need
4) improve prevention and treatment
6/n

@PanData19
"We will continue to call out what we see as bad science and ill-conceived policy. We will continue to ask the difficult questions." 7/n

@PanData19 "is a group of passionate people wanting the right decisions to be made for the sake of the people of our country – particularly the poor, on whom the current measures impact the most." 8/n

"This does not mean that we have all the answers and won’t make mistakes. Only open science, debate, and policy transparency allow us to understand the problem better and make wiser policy choices." 9/n
@PanData19

@peter_castleden and @pieterstreicher of @PanData19 unpack the modelling and predictions that PANDA made in 2020 with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic. 10/10
pandata.org/panda-predicti…