Canada, COVID-19 Cases/Deaths Models Feb 18, 2021

4 chart (good news) thread

The bottom line?

The momentum contiues to fall, and it's below zero and suggests the waterfall will continue.

#COVID19Ontario #COVID19 #covid19canada Image
The 7-day ROC is projecting this will be over by the beginning of summer. Image
The COVID-19 Deaths model for Canada contiues to fall and is below zero. Which suggests no slowdown in the waterfall. Image
I "linearly" extrapolate this trend.

It starts to fall below zero at the beginning of spring 2021.

This will be the chart to watch as it is susceptible to daily change. Image
Ontario COVID-19 Cases/Deaths Based on Cumulative Data (FEB 18, 2021) Stats Canada Data.

7-Day Rate Of Change (ROC)

Following the world trend since the peak in early JAN 2021.

#COVID19Ontario #COVID19 ImageImage
World COVID19 Cases (7-DAY RATE OF CHANGE) Model

Data is based on world-wide cumulative cases.

I placed a linear trend-line forecast out until the end of the FLU season.

"IF" the trend contiues this should be over by the start of the summer (June 21, 2021) Image
World COVID-19 Daily Cases with a trend-line and Forecast Oscillator ImageImage

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More from @TheELongWave

21 Feb
COVID-19 Modeling.

Is this forecast realistic in spite we are entering into the 2nd half of the Flu Season Cycle?

And the "failure" of Linear analysis.

8-Chart Thread.

#COVIDー19 #COVID #COVIDCanada Image
Linear chart of Canada COVID-19. I want to point how "misleading" this chart is. It does not "capture" the true ROC, as there is an equal distance between the data; each data price change on the chart is represented by the same vertical distance or movement up the scale. Image
Why use a logarithmic scale? Because it accurately displays trends. The scale is essential for timely and accurate use of trendline analysis movement; prices tend to accelerate in the direction of the prevailing trend; they rise faster at the end of a rising trend. Image
Read 8 tweets
20 Feb
Canada Real Estate bubble (thread.)

Net demand is set to peak over the coming two years, as the millennials turn 28 this year. New demand typically peaks at the age of 29 (25-34). After that, new demand will fall off a cliff into 2030.

#RealEstate #Canada #creditbubble Image
The "Demand Model" is based on the annual number of 29-year-olds minus the number of annual deaths.
Why is this important? Japan never recovered from its real estate bubble prices are down 50%. It's occurring because the ageing population "supply" was meeting new demand. Image
New demand model.

I take the # of 29 years olds, minus new deaths, "supply." The model every year, which considers new immigration/emigration/births data.

This is a new phenomenon since Canada has an ageing populace with much of the world.

The model peaks in 2022. Image
Read 8 tweets
22 Nov 20
Do gym shutdowns really have a positive cost-benefit?

Thread...

Earlier this year, I posted a study showing a very low corona transmission rate in gyms, at least in Norway, in an infection with a low infection rate.

#COVID #COVID19Ontario #COVID19Canada
Public Health England's data show only just over 1% of infections can be track-and-traced to gyms.

In Canada, COVID19 Science Advisory Table reported that only 3.3% of outbreak-related transmissions were related to gyms and sports.
Also, in Canada, many health and fitness professionals pleaded to the government to keep gyms open. As the Toronto Sun reported:

"The group wants to partner with government and public health to safely keep gyms open during COVID.
Read 9 tweets
19 Nov 20
Canada's "Kondratiev's" Economic LongWave

THE idea that the dynamics of economic life in the capitalistic social order is not of a simple and linear but rather of a complex and cyclical character is nowadays generally recognized. Image
Science, however, has fallen far short of clarifying the nature and the types of these cyclical, wave-like movements.

Kondratieff, Nikolai D.. The Long Waves in Economic Life.
When in economics we speak of cycles, we generally mean seven to eleven-year business cycles.

But these seven to eleven-year movements are obviously not the only type of economic cycle.
Read 5 tweets

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