Canada, COVID-19 Cases/Deaths Models Feb 18, 2021

4 chart (good news) thread

The bottom line?

The momentum contiues to fall, and it's below zero and suggests the waterfall will continue.

#COVID19Ontario #COVID19 #covid19canada Image
The 7-day ROC is projecting this will be over by the beginning of summer. Image
The COVID-19 Deaths model for Canada contiues to fall and is below zero. Which suggests no slowdown in the waterfall. Image
I "linearly" extrapolate this trend.

It starts to fall below zero at the beginning of spring 2021.

This will be the chart to watch as it is susceptible to daily change. Image
Ontario COVID-19 Cases/Deaths Based on Cumulative Data (FEB 18, 2021) Stats Canada Data.

7-Day Rate Of Change (ROC)

Following the world trend since the peak in early JAN 2021.

#COVID19Ontario #COVID19 ImageImage
World COVID19 Cases (7-DAY RATE OF CHANGE) Model

Data is based on world-wide cumulative cases.

I placed a linear trend-line forecast out until the end of the FLU season.

"IF" the trend contiues this should be over by the start of the summer (June 21, 2021) Image
World COVID-19 Daily Cases with a trend-line and Forecast Oscillator ImageImage

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Joseph Barbuto, The Economic LongWave

Joseph Barbuto, The Economic LongWave Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TheELongWave

21 Feb
COVID-19 Modeling.

Is this forecast realistic in spite we are entering into the 2nd half of the Flu Season Cycle?

And the "failure" of Linear analysis.

8-Chart Thread.

#COVIDー19 #COVID #COVIDCanada Image
Linear chart of Canada COVID-19. I want to point how "misleading" this chart is. It does not "capture" the true ROC, as there is an equal distance between the data; each data price change on the chart is represented by the same vertical distance or movement up the scale. Image
Why use a logarithmic scale? Because it accurately displays trends. The scale is essential for timely and accurate use of trendline analysis movement; prices tend to accelerate in the direction of the prevailing trend; they rise faster at the end of a rising trend. Image
Read 8 tweets
20 Feb
Canada Real Estate bubble (thread.)

Net demand is set to peak over the coming two years, as the millennials turn 28 this year. New demand typically peaks at the age of 29 (25-34). After that, new demand will fall off a cliff into 2030.

#RealEstate #Canada #creditbubble Image
The "Demand Model" is based on the annual number of 29-year-olds minus the number of annual deaths.
Why is this important? Japan never recovered from its real estate bubble prices are down 50%. It's occurring because the ageing population "supply" was meeting new demand. Image
New demand model.

I take the # of 29 years olds, minus new deaths, "supply." The model every year, which considers new immigration/emigration/births data.

This is a new phenomenon since Canada has an ageing populace with much of the world.

The model peaks in 2022. Image
Read 8 tweets
22 Nov 20
Do gym shutdowns really have a positive cost-benefit?


Earlier this year, I posted a study showing a very low corona transmission rate in gyms, at least in Norway, in an infection with a low infection rate.

#COVID #COVID19Ontario #COVID19Canada
Public Health England's data show only just over 1% of infections can be track-and-traced to gyms.

In Canada, COVID19 Science Advisory Table reported that only 3.3% of outbreak-related transmissions were related to gyms and sports.
Also, in Canada, many health and fitness professionals pleaded to the government to keep gyms open. As the Toronto Sun reported:

"The group wants to partner with government and public health to safely keep gyms open during COVID.
Read 9 tweets
19 Nov 20
Canada's "Kondratiev's" Economic LongWave

THE idea that the dynamics of economic life in the capitalistic social order is not of a simple and linear but rather of a complex and cyclical character is nowadays generally recognized. Image
Science, however, has fallen far short of clarifying the nature and the types of these cyclical, wave-like movements.

Kondratieff, Nikolai D.. The Long Waves in Economic Life.
When in economics we speak of cycles, we generally mean seven to eleven-year business cycles.

But these seven to eleven-year movements are obviously not the only type of economic cycle.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!