Canada Real Estate bubble (thread.)

Net demand is set to peak over the coming two years, as the millennials turn 28 this year. New demand typically peaks at the age of 29 (25-34). After that, new demand will fall off a cliff into 2030.

#RealEstate #Canada #creditbubble Image
The "Demand Model" is based on the annual number of 29-year-olds minus the number of annual deaths.
Why is this important? Japan never recovered from its real estate bubble prices are down 50%. It's occurring because the ageing population "supply" was meeting new demand. Image
New demand model.

I take the # of 29 years olds, minus new deaths, "supply." The model every year, which considers new immigration/emigration/births data.

This is a new phenomenon since Canada has an ageing populace with much of the world.

The model peaks in 2022. Image
Here are the components of the model. 1850-2020 projected out to 2050.
I built it five years ago and updated it every year after reading Harry Dent's excellent book The demographic cliff (2014); it includes ALL Canada's demographic history and future projections out to 2050. Image
As you can see, not only does new demand peak in 2022, supply starts growing exponentially from 2022 into 2050.
Canada's Real Estate Social Mood Cycle. 1977-(JAN) 2021

Redline Boom times green line bear market.

Another confirmation we are approaching a peak as the real estate/credit bubble is nearing its end. Image
What about population growth?

Canada's population growth (1870-2020) contiues in a secular decline.

Notice during "economic winters" 1870-1896 and 1929-1946 population growth collapses.

Why? financial stress, immigration is halted, and uncertainty about the economic future. Image
While Immigration has risen since the mid-1980s, in proportion to the size of Canada's population it has gone sideways since 1957. Image

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More from @TheELongWave

21 Feb
COVID-19 Modeling.

Is this forecast realistic in spite we are entering into the 2nd half of the Flu Season Cycle?

And the "failure" of Linear analysis.

8-Chart Thread.

Linear chart of Canada COVID-19. I want to point how "misleading" this chart is. It does not "capture" the true ROC, as there is an equal distance between the data; each data price change on the chart is represented by the same vertical distance or movement up the scale.
Why use a logarithmic scale? Because it accurately displays trends. The scale is essential for timely and accurate use of trendline analysis movement; prices tend to accelerate in the direction of the prevailing trend; they rise faster at the end of a rising trend.
Read 9 tweets
19 Feb
Canada, COVID-19 Cases/Deaths Models Feb 18, 2021

4 chart (good news) thread

The bottom line?

The momentum contiues to fall, and it's below zero and suggests the waterfall will continue.

#COVID19Ontario #COVID19 #covid19canada Image
The 7-day ROC is projecting this will be over by the beginning of summer. Image
The COVID-19 Deaths model for Canada contiues to fall and is below zero. Which suggests no slowdown in the waterfall. Image
Read 7 tweets
22 Nov 20
Do gym shutdowns really have a positive cost-benefit?


Earlier this year, I posted a study showing a very low corona transmission rate in gyms, at least in Norway, in an infection with a low infection rate.

#COVID #COVID19Ontario #COVID19Canada
Public Health England's data show only just over 1% of infections can be track-and-traced to gyms.

In Canada, COVID19 Science Advisory Table reported that only 3.3% of outbreak-related transmissions were related to gyms and sports.
Also, in Canada, many health and fitness professionals pleaded to the government to keep gyms open. As the Toronto Sun reported:

"The group wants to partner with government and public health to safely keep gyms open during COVID.
Read 9 tweets
19 Nov 20
Canada's "Kondratiev's" Economic LongWave

THE idea that the dynamics of economic life in the capitalistic social order is not of a simple and linear but rather of a complex and cyclical character is nowadays generally recognized. Image
Science, however, has fallen far short of clarifying the nature and the types of these cyclical, wave-like movements.

Kondratieff, Nikolai D.. The Long Waves in Economic Life.
When in economics we speak of cycles, we generally mean seven to eleven-year business cycles.

But these seven to eleven-year movements are obviously not the only type of economic cycle.
Read 5 tweets

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