The updated Ontario #VaccineStrategy.
- 80+ now clearly earmarked
- my criticism of essential worker priority over elderly has been partly addressed by removal of construction workers (lol)
- I will be monitoring who gets equal or higher priority than the 70-79 group and WHY Image
I'll keep asking awkward questions few seem to want to ask, many that might concern people who follow me. Eg,
- How many lives will be saved by 💉 younger teachers vs community living 70-79?
- Is priority to save lives or open economy by underutilizing 💉for infection control?
- Is politics/special status being used to override science of saving maximum lives first over certain special groups or communities.?

All I want to do is see maximum lives saved for every jab until we are overrun with supply.
In case anyone wants to accuse me of self-interest, I am not in the 70+ population. And if a study shows vaccinating others first will save more lives directly or indirectly, I will fully support.

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More from @Billius27

22 Feb
🧵🦠📈 Ontario Morning Update
1,058 new cases
Rt = 1.01
2.6% wkly positivity (31K tests)
11 deaths
556K💉 (up 16,404)
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
💡find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius27 Image
I adjusted the loess parameter to detect more short-term trending. That trend has turned. Image
Positivity has levelled at 2.6%. Image
Read 8 tweets
22 Feb
🧵US cases are declining significantly. Should we be surprised? No. New infections arise from this formula for R:
R = D x O x T x S
D = Duration (time infectious)
O = Opportunities (contacts/day)
T = Transmission (probability infect contact)
S = Susceptible (proportion of popn) Image
2/ One of those factors, S, has been changing significantly over the past year because the US has had many more infections per capita than Canada.
In fact, previously infected are now about 30% of the population. Vaccinated (2 dose) are now ~ 6%.
npr.org/sections/healt…
3/ If we now go back to R = DOTS, we get
R = DOT x (1 - .3 -.06)
If DOT stays about the same, then R drops to 64% of what is was when everyone was susceptible. An original R of 1.25 becomes .8. A "new R" of .8 is going to drive cases down because 100 infections cause 80 new ones.
Read 7 tweets
22 Feb
🧵🦠📈 Canada Overnight Update
~ vaccines, provinces, regions ~
Canada's weekly case rate is now at 54.7. The week/week decline is down to -5.6%. More ⤵️
#Covid19 #cdnpoli
💡explore in the viz at bit.ly/Billius27 Image
Saskatchewan remains highest, now ay 91. Image
Provincial trends. Image
Read 6 tweets
21 Feb
🧵🦠📈 Ontario Morning Update
1,087 new cases
Rt = .99
2,6% wkly positivity (flat) (48Ktests)
ONLY 1 LTC DEATH 🥳
540K💉 More ⤵️
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
💡find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius27 Image
Regions Image
New cases Image
Read 7 tweets
21 Feb
🧵Smoothing trends. This mathematical method attempts to understand the underlying trends in daily data and is a little different than 7 day averages. It is detecting "up" signals in Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario. More ⤵️ Image
Newfoundland's B117 variant outbreak shows how strong upward spikes can be. Image
Smaller populations like Nunavut cab have more erratic patterns around outbreaks. Image
Read 4 tweets
21 Feb
UPDATE: Ontario tonight
More ⤵️
I'm concerned about the north. I've seen what happened in the northern prairies.
Northwestern is still rising.
Read 4 tweets

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