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🇨🇦 Bill Comeau Crush the Curve 📉

21 Feb, 7 tweets, 3 min read

🧵🦠📈 Canada PHU Update Feb 20
~ provinces, regions ~
Weekly case rate drops to 53.9, down 11.2% from last week. The rate of decline is slowing.
#Covid19 #cdnpoli
💡explore in the viz at bit.ly/Billius27

Canada's administered doses hit a daily record of 47,707 as supply expands.

Weekly shipments are expected to remain high and continue ramping up. The target remains 6 million doses by the end of March.

Average dose reach is now almost 4 per 100 people.

Provincial weekly case rates. Saskatchewan still leads and Quebec rand BC remain above the Canadian average.

Key trends.

Synopsis: Things are improving on the vaccine front. On the cases front the downward trend is easing in many provinces. Note: daily counts may be misleading today as not all PHUs report on weekends.

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More from @Billius27

🇨🇦 Bill Comeau Crush the Curve 📉

@Billius27

22 Feb

🧵🦠📈 Ontario Morning Update
1,058 new cases
Rt = 1.01
2.6% wkly positivity (31K tests)
11 deaths
556K💉 (up 16,404)
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
💡find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius27

I adjusted the loess parameter to detect more short-term trending. That trend has turned.

Positivity has levelled at 2.6%.

Read 8 tweets

🇨🇦 Bill Comeau Crush the Curve 📉

@Billius27

22 Feb

🧵US cases are declining significantly. Should we be surprised? No. New infections arise from this formula for R:
R = D x O x T x S
D = Duration (time infectious)
O = Opportunities (contacts/day)
T = Transmission (probability infect contact)
S = Susceptible (proportion of popn)

2/ One of those factors, S, has been changing significantly over the past year because the US has had many more infections per capita than Canada.
In fact, previously infected are now about 30% of the population. Vaccinated (2 dose) are now ~ 6%.
npr.org/sections/healt…

3/ If we now go back to R = DOTS, we get
R = DOT x (1 - .3 -.06)
If DOT stays about the same, then R drops to 64% of what is was when everyone was susceptible. An original R of 1.25 becomes .8. A "new R" of .8 is going to drive cases down because 100 infections cause 80 new ones.

Read 7 tweets

🇨🇦 Bill Comeau Crush the Curve 📉

@Billius27

22 Feb

🧵🦠📈 Canada Overnight Update
~ vaccines, provinces, regions ~
Canada's weekly case rate is now at 54.7. The week/week decline is down to -5.6%. More ⤵️
#Covid19 #cdnpoli
💡explore in the viz at bit.ly/Billius27

Saskatchewan remains highest, now ay 91.

Provincial trends.

Read 6 tweets

🇨🇦 Bill Comeau Crush the Curve 📉

@Billius27

21 Feb

🧵🦠📈 Ontario Morning Update
1,087 new cases
Rt = .99
2,6% wkly positivity (flat) (48Ktests)
ONLY 1 LTC DEATH 🥳
540K💉 More ⤵️
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
💡find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius27

Regions

New cases

Read 7 tweets

🇨🇦 Bill Comeau Crush the Curve 📉

@Billius27

21 Feb

🧵Smoothing trends. This mathematical method attempts to understand the underlying trends in daily data and is a little different than 7 day averages. It is detecting "up" signals in Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario. More ⤵️