M.P. Profile picture
21 Feb, 16 tweets, 4 min read
This estimate of October/November is a best-case scenario - hopefully people will pay attention to understand how much we can do to stop infections and suffering over the next year.
Listen to this:

"If we end restrictions in April, we could reach the herd immunity threshold by June. But in that time, 170,000 more people could die from the virus.

Precautions remain especially important as new variants of the virus emerge."
As all the experts have been saying, we can not relax now. If anything we need much stronger precautions:

"If social distancing measures aren’t followed, a stronger virus could rapidly infect and kill hundreds of thousands of people before they can be vaccinated."
"If we end restrictions now... 320,000 more people could die from the virus."

"at this rate, it will be eight months before 75% of American adults are fully vaccinated"

Q: "On Jan. 31, saying the darkest days of the pandemic could be ahead, and I was pretty shocked. I mean, 18 days have passed, a lot has happened. How are you feeling about that now?"

A: "I think right now what we're seeing is basically the lull before the storm."
"Imagine we're all sitting on this beautiful sand beach on the Gulf somewhere. Blue skies, temperature of 80 degrees, slight breeze, not a cloud in the sky. And we're trying to tell people, 'Get ready to evacuate.' Everyone is saying 'Why? this makes no sense.'"
"But we can see that Category 5 hurricane 400 miles south of the beach heading straight towards the beach. And that's what these variants represent right now."
Q: "Is the Category 5 hurricane, specifically the B.1.1.7. Because we're hearing that it will end up being the dominant variant or the others that are emerging?"

A: "Yeah, it is the B.1.1.7 variant..."
It's not just Michael Osterholm from Biden's COVID-19 transition team issuing this warning, it's all the other members of the team also.

But the Biden admin isn't saying it. Why?

The Biden admin says they don't want to scare people...

Scaring people doesn't help.
But telling people the truth does.

The problem is if the Biden admin tells people the truth about what 2021 is going to look like then the next obvious question would be: Then why don't we change our strategy to save lives?

The lesson from 2020 is really simple.

Government can decide whether the pandemic is a challenge or a disaster.

But they have to act. Quickly. Now.
If federal government won't do it, states and provinces can do it.

That's what happened in Australia.

But governors in the US and premiers in Canada are both repeating the same mistakes as Trump and Biden.
How do we know a #ZeroCOVID strategy will work? We have evidence.

Deaths with Our Strategy:
Canada: 21,600
UK: 120,000
US: 500,000

Deaths w/ near-Zero COVID Strategy:
Australia: 909
Cambodia: 0
Finland: 726
Laos: 0
Mongolia: 2
New Zealand: 26
Singapore: 29
Vietnam: 35

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More from @OmanReagan

21 Feb
Good morning to everyone except all the people who were gaslighting us in 2019 and 2020 by saying Biden's policies weren't substantially different from Bernie's.
Here's a list of policies we would have right now with President Sanders. Which are all still possible, but Biden is choosing not to do these things. 🧵
1. Keep workers on payroll during the pandemic.

Make sure that every worker in America continues to receive their paycheck during this crisis, retroactive to the beginning of the crisis.
Read 53 tweets
21 Feb
NYT today: “No other country has counted so many deaths in the pandemic. More Americans have perished from Covid-19 than on the battlefields of World War I, World War II and the Vietnam War combined.”

Vietnam total deaths from the pandemic: 35

From Sen Nguyen:

“Finally, any discussion about the two countries would not be complete if the Vietnam War did not come up eventually. A peculiar phenomenon has taken place...”
“Western journalists and observers have compared American Covid-19 fatalities with the tens of thousands of Americans killed in that war, as if to shame the US’s catastrophic response to the crisis as opposed to the tremendous success of a developing country it once fought.”
Read 8 tweets
21 Feb
"We need to ask the hard questions that the corporate media fails to ask: who owns America, and who has the political power?

Why, in the richest country in the history of the world are so many Americans living in poverty?"

"In the richest country in the history of the world, 13 million children live in poverty and two-thirds of them are children of color.

This is a moral outrage.

If we raise the minimum wage and invest in education and housing, we can end child poverty."

"More than 65% of the people in county or city jails on any given day in 2016 had not been convicted of a crime, often because they lack the money to pay bail.

In other words, we have criminalized poverty."

Read 4 tweets
20 Feb
"Settler colonialism seeks to eliminate Indigenous populations in order to monopolize resources for the sake of capital. It operates through laws and racist ideologies, but also through conceptualizations of the natural world as white men’s for the human taking." —@NatalieMAvalos
"Settler colonialism operates from its own metaphysic, producing what I call a settler ecology, which dispossesses peoples but also lands."
"If settlers want to understand how to effectively address environmental crises, then they have to interrogate the logics of settler colonialism—racialization, white supremacy, and myths of development—as structural dimensions of modern life."
Read 16 tweets
20 Feb
One of the biggest strategic mistakes the US left is making right now is not talking about why Biden continues to use the same pandemic strategy that Trump started in 2020.

It's connected to monthly survival checks, medicare for all, and every other issue we talk about.
Right now the US left has an opportunity to point out Biden's own science advisors have been saying for a year that we need to change pandemic strategies. But he's not doing it.

He said he would listen to science. Why isn't he?
The strategic opportunity the US left is missing is simple, but huge:

Biden said he would listen to science. His science advisors say we should change pandemic strategy. Changing pandemic strategy requires sending everyone monthly checks, expanding healthcare, and more.

Read 13 tweets
20 Feb
"Summoning the public to understand and accept such measures requires a grown-up discussion among our politicians and citizenry.

But the status quo doesn’t want to change or even entertain a national conversation."
"Even as one variant disrupts a Newfoundland election and other variants silently gather force across the country, most provinces are merrily reopening businesses and schools.

This strategy has been tried twice. And it has failed Canadians twice."
Even McKinsey and Company said:

“Countries on the near-zero-virus path radically reduced viral spread, minimizing the chances of transmission and making it easier to control flare-ups as they occur. Leaders of those countries have built public confidence..."
Read 14 tweets

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