Someone needs to see how this overlaps with the writings of Winston Churchill
CHURCHILL: “This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Totally ripped off Churchill here... “Never give in, never give in, never, never, never, never.”

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More from @PatrickRuffini

21 Feb
All of this “dEm sPEnDing Is PoPUlaR!” polling isn’t exactly helpful if people *almost never* vote on economic policy and *almost always* vote on culture.
If culture is 50-50 and economy/role of government is 60-40D, but culture is 80% of voting behavior, that equates to 52-48D, the same modest advantage we saw in 2020 but one perennially vulnerable to an EV-popular vote split.
The reason the Dem economic message from 2012 was so effective is that it was actually culture war in reverse. One of us / not one of us as opposed to left / right on the economy.
Read 4 tweets
19 Feb
Shake up in the GOP 2024 field without Trump:

@tedcruz in 2nd and @GovRonDeSantis rockets into 3rd with a 6 point gain in a month.

(Cancun-gate was at the tail end of the field period.) Image
That is IF Trump doesn't run. If he does, his position is stronger than in the immediate aftermath of January 6th, leading a generic other candidate 22 points, up from 7 in January. Image
Post-acquittal, there's also been an improvement in the share of Republicans who want Trump to run in 2024, but the number is still down from Feb. Was 45% in January, now 55%. Image
Read 6 tweets
9 Feb
It’s time to tell the Real Turnout Story of 2020, reprising my state-level voter file deep dives from 2016 and 2018. You can find those here:…
The first Real Turnout Story of the 2020 election begins with the general election in Georgia. I’ll go state by state as vote history for the general election is released. First, I’d like to explain what these threads will look like.
Throughout, I’ll be comparing turnout to expectations. “Expectations” is the pre-election @EchelonInsights turnout model. It’s one that got pegged overall national turnout to within 1M of the final number. Still, there are some surprises.…
Read 19 tweets
2 Feb
Some more findings from post-riot & impeachment survey.

Of the 20% of voters who think Trump won, few budged being presented with more info.

Nearly half of them (around 1 in 10 voters overall) say legal decisions that declared Biden the winner need to be resisted not respected.
As many people believe that politics is about ensuring the country's survival as we know it as it about enacting good policy.

Among Democrats: Survival 38, Policy 47.
Among Republicans: Survival 46, Policy 25
Among Trump Republicans: Survival 51, Policy 19
Around 2 in 10 Republicans favor Trump's conviction by the Senate but that rises to 3 in 10 who'd be open to barring Trump from serving in public office in the future, the consequence of conviction.
Read 4 tweets
28 Jan
Everyone, on all sides of this, had it coming.
This really has the vibe of an early blogosphere Dan Rather-style takedown of the MSM, except with billions of dollars.
Repeal social media
Read 4 tweets
28 Jan
Interesting new results from @EchelonInsights Verified Voter Omnibus on impeachment and fallout from the Capitol riots. Follow along! 🧵
Support for various punishments for Trump over the Capitol unrest.

Barred from public office 57-35
Banned from social media 56-38
Censure 54-34
Impeach/convict 53-39

More people support the punishment (barring him from running for future office) than the process itself.
People on all sides will support candidates who denounced violence on all sides and stood with law enforcement. Very little support for candidates who praised the actions of the Capitol rioters (7%) or attended the 1/6 rally in DC (10%).
Read 9 tweets

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