I'm slightly confused here.

This recent inflationary rise in commodities, factory input prices, retail sales and other data was clearly forecasted by central bankers and economists.

/1
Everyone knew that thanks to base effects, supply constraints, and the initial demand surge from re-opening would lead to higher prices and inflationary pressures. CBs said they would look through this data as it would likely be transitory.

/2
Yet, here we are, panicking about inflation when we're only just starting to re-open.

/3
Why are people being so reactionary? Obviously it's worrying to see data that suggests inflation is about to take off, but weren't we all warned that this might happen, and it's likely that it won't last?

4/4

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More from @MichaelGoodwell

21 Feb
Moody's Research:

Too Much of a Good Thing?

/1
🔹 Ten-Year Treasury Yield Hardly Ever Quickly Approaches Nominal GDP Growth

/2
🔹 Breakneck Commodity Price Inflation Does Not Promise Rapid Core Consumer Price Inflation

/3
Read 4 tweets
19 Feb
ETF Fund Flows:

The $UVXY (ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF) ETF has continued to see sustained inflows over the past few days.

Is this a record inflow over such a short period?

cc @EricBalchunas

/1
Bond ETF Inflows/Outflows:

- $LQD (iShares iBoxx USD Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF)

- $HYG (iShares iBoxx USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF)

- $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)

- $IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF)

/2
ARK Group ETF Inflows/Outflows:

- $ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF)

- $ARKW (ARK Next Generation Internet ETF)

3/3
Read 5 tweets
14 Feb
Commodity Call - ANZ

🔹 Copper supercharged

/1
🔹 Copper remains in bull cycle

🔹 A sustained demand strength

/2
Copper continued...

/3
Read 6 tweets
12 Feb
🇬🇧 Series of UK headlines hitting tonight:

1. Social distancing rules in England could remain until autumn - The Times

🔹 “The thinking is that social distancing will need to be in place for a long time to come,” a Whitehall source said.

/1


thetimes.co.uk/article/social…
2. Stealth tax raid on personal allowances to raise £6bn - The Telegraph

🔹 Planned increases to £12,500 and £50,000 thresholds face axe in move that would mean tens of millions paying more.

/2


telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
3. Fuel duty rise in next month’s Budget will a blow to the North, Chancellor Rishi Sunak warned - The Sun

/3


thesun.co.uk/news/14025424/…
Read 4 tweets
12 Feb
Hang on for wild oil, copper ride in commodity supercycle: Goldman's Currie

🔹 Oil has a 'lot of upside', copper prices already at supercycle levels

🔹 Supercycle reminiscent of 1970s spike rather than 2000s bull run

🔹 Supply crunch could play into shale, core OPEC+ hands

/1
'Key metals such as copper are already at supercycle levels and that the story has only just begun.'

/2 Image
Supercycle origins and the shift in demand:

/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
11 Feb
🛢️ Commodities May Have Just Begun a New Supercycle - JPM

/1
Prices may also jump as an “unintended consequence” of the fight against climate change, which threatens to constrain oil supplies while boosting demand for metals needed to build renewable energy infrastructure, batteries and electric vehicles.

/2
Read 4 tweets

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