Linear chart of Canada COVID-19. I want to point how "misleading" this chart is. It does not "capture" the true ROC, as there is an equal distance between the data; each data price change on the chart is represented by the same vertical distance or movement up the scale.
Why use a logarithmic scale? Because it accurately displays trends. The scale is essential for timely and accurate use of trendline analysis movement; prices tend to accelerate in the direction of the prevailing trend; they rise faster at the end of a rising trend.
And decline more sharply at the termination of a trend.
Here is a Log Chart of World COVID-19 Cases. Notice the true ROC is displayed, and the 21 Day Moving average confirms the ongoing ROC declaration?
Want more evidence?
Here is the World COVID-19 ROC since Jan 01, 2020-Feb 19, 202. Notice how the ROC had decelerated since the TRUE PEAK on March 21, 2020?
Let's take a peek at the forecast since the New Flu season commenced!
The 2nd Wave Peaked On March 21 and has trended in a secular decline suggesting this will over by the end of the summer. Notice the "green" trend channels!
Here is Canada's ROC. Notice that the ROC is confirming the LOG Chart downtrend?
Let's look a bit closer!
Canada, COVID-10 Cases Flu season cycle.
With government and a Flu season cycle projection.
The Flu season cycle projects at the current ROC since Jan 2020 will be over by the end of Aug 2021.
Once you understand cycles, you will understand why most models fail; they are all "linear static extrapolations of the past" (economics, climate change, and stock markets) forecast linearity.
Nothing in the real world exists without cycles and the energy that drives them!
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Net demand is set to peak over the coming two years, as the millennials turn 28 this year. New demand typically peaks at the age of 29 (25-34). After that, new demand will fall off a cliff into 2030.
The "Demand Model" is based on the annual number of 29-year-olds minus the number of annual deaths.
Why is this important? Japan never recovered from its real estate bubble prices are down 50%. It's occurring because the ageing population "supply" was meeting new demand.
New demand model.
I take the # of 29 years olds, minus new deaths, "supply." The model every year, which considers new immigration/emigration/births data.
This is a new phenomenon since Canada has an ageing populace with much of the world.
Do gym shutdowns really have a positive cost-benefit?
Thread...
Earlier this year, I posted a study showing a very low corona transmission rate in gyms, at least in Norway, in an infection with a low infection rate.
THE idea that the dynamics of economic life in the capitalistic social order is not of a simple and linear but rather of a complex and cyclical character is nowadays generally recognized.
Science, however, has fallen far short of clarifying the nature and the types of these cyclical, wave-like movements.
Kondratieff, Nikolai D.. The Long Waves in Economic Life.
When in economics we speak of cycles, we generally mean seven to eleven-year business cycles.
But these seven to eleven-year movements are obviously not the only type of economic cycle.