Thread by @TheELongWave

COVID-19 Modeling.

Is this forecast realistic in spite we are entering into the 2nd half of the Flu Season Cycle?

And the "failure" of Linear analysis.

8-Chart Thread.

#COVIDー19 #COVID #COVIDCanada

Linear chart of Canada COVID-19. I want to point how "misleading" this chart is. It does not "capture" the true ROC, as there is an equal distance between the data; each data price change on the chart is represented by the same vertical distance or movement up the scale.

Why use a logarithmic scale? Because it accurately displays trends. The scale is essential for timely and accurate use of trendline analysis movement; prices tend to accelerate in the direction of the prevailing trend; they rise faster at the end of a rising trend.

And decline more sharply at the termination of a trend.

Here is a Log Chart of World COVID-19 Cases. Notice the true ROC is displayed, and the 21 Day Moving average confirms the ongoing ROC declaration?

Want more evidence?

Here is the World COVID-19 ROC since Jan 01, 2020-Feb 19, 202. Notice how the ROC had decelerated since the TRUE PEAK on March 21, 2020?

Let's take a peek at the forecast since the New Flu season commenced!

The 2nd Wave Peaked On March 21 and has trended in a secular decline suggesting this will over by the end of the summer. Notice the "green" trend channels!

Here is Canada's ROC. Notice that the ROC is confirming the LOG Chart downtrend?

Let's look a bit closer!

Canada, COVID-10 Cases Flu season cycle.

With government and a Flu season cycle projection.

The Flu season cycle projects at the current ROC since Jan 2020 will be over by the end of Aug 2021.

Once you understand cycles, you will understand why most models fail; they are all "linear static extrapolations of the past" (economics, climate change, and stock markets) forecast linearity.
Nothing in the real world exists without cycles and the energy that drives them!