Eric Wall 🟧 Profile picture
21 Feb, 13 tweets, 5 min read
I hedged my ETH positions with market-cap weighted BSC (BNB) ~2 weeks ago, but that's only because I expected it to rally short-term now that yield-farming and low fees will attract activity there and make BSC look like serious Ethereum contender.
That said I don't have long-term belief in BSC. I think that mature Ethereum L2s with some primitive cross-rollup interaction will bring fees lower and create a viable platform for Ethereum users and I believe developers will ideologically favor Ethereum options as their #1 pick.
As APYs run out on BSC as those governance tokens have been farmed and as acceptable fee environments arise on Ethereum, BSC will pass as a fad. Everyone knows that BSC is a ticking regulatory time bomb--as is Ethereum--but with much less resilience in that inevitable war.
Now, what I think is extremely important is that other exchanges support withdrawal options directly to ETH L2 rollups. Look at this. Having a direct low-fee CEX-to-rollup onramp is the one thing that currently sets BSC apart from Ethereum options, even after yields decrease.
@bitfinex @coinbase @kraken please realize that BSC taking over Ethereum is a negative for you. It's going to centralize the smart contract landscape around Binance put you at a disadvantage. Offering direct onramps to Ethereum L2s is how you level the playing feed.
Lol, I didn't realize that this thread would come out sounding like this. I'm not celebrating a trade here. Anyway check my response to his tweet.
Missed an opportunity here. As a regulated trader I have to whitelist assets I wish to trade and coherently explain why $CAKE is safe. That's a conversation I'd prefer to avoid 😂 also I have no idea whether PancakeSwap will last when competition comes.
Anyway this whole situation is something I've been entertaining the idea of happening, forseeing the offchance of this did not require much brainpower.
I've updated my thinking a bit on the above and I no longer see consortium chains as a big threat to Ethereum anymore (in the very long-term). Complex rationale here:
Also this sounds atleast a little bit promising (as much as I believe @gakonst is the GOAT + @zmanian I'll keep my hopes reserved for a bit longer though).

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More from @ercwl

22 Feb
Froth alert:

My reality TV star childhood friend who I convinced in March/April to buy BTC & ETH ETPs called me today to tell me that he's put $7k into Binance and bought: 1. Cardano 2. Polkadot 3. Chainlink 4. VeChain.

Had no clue what either of these things were.
Frothometer 9.3/10
This confirmed an intuition that I've had: retail investors don't have any awareness of whether $LINK is a token or its own L1 token and therefore should be valued like BTC or ETH. This is my main rationale for understanding Chainlink's absurd valuation.
Read 7 tweets
21 Feb
Bitfinex FTW. Even though you lost me 17% of my networth when getting hacked (would have been much more if you didn't tokenize my debt and made it liquid) and you made temporarily me sell BTC at ~$1100 because Tether artificially spurred the 2017 rally by trading at a discount ❤️
Bitfinex could have gone into bankruptcy liquidation like @MtGox and in this case I'd be pretty broke right now, waiting for settlement. But they refused. In my mind @bitfinex is a pirate ship, sailing to ever-more exciting horizons, despite waves or storms.
I did work indirectly with Bitfinex trying to catch spoofy. A subsidiary of my company sold them a market surveillance system to catch wash trading and other mischief, and I was the advisor to that project and I got a great kick out of hearing Phil Potter yell at my colleagues 😂
Read 9 tweets
20 Feb
Nyan Cat sold for 300 ETH ($600k)

If real, we're going to very soon drown in more and more NFTs bidding for fewer and fewer buyers.
My prediction for NFTs: I think the entire concept will end up in a technologically untenable situation. There are many NFT platforms and plenty of complexity that arises if you attempt to migrate NFTs cross-platform (who has the right?). The base-layer itself could also fork.
Social consensus is defines which NFT incarnation is canonical, but it's not binary. Social consensus works half-ok (not exactly perfect) for cryptocurrencies because there are monetary reasons for convergence. NFT incentives for canonical platform consensus are weak/fragile.
Read 6 tweets
19 Feb
We're currently in the "Is it a bubble?" band. The next band is the "FOMO intensifies" band, which we'll enter at ~$56,500.

What's interesting about the "FOMO intensifies" band is that it really is a "FOMO intensifies"-band. Let's look at previous examples:
Last time we entered the FOMO-band was in 2017-11-20 at $8,100. We shot right past through it. 10 days later, we were at $11,500. A 42% gain.
The time before that was during a bounce from a dip. We shot through the entire band in one day (2014-02-25).

Entry price: $312
Exit price: $443
Number of days: 1

Also a 42% gain, of course.
Read 9 tweets
19 Feb
Just found out I have XXX ENG in a wallet somewhere that are now worthless because @EnigmaMPC decided to move from being an ERC20 to becoming a @cosmos zone (which they've confusingly named "Secret Hub", even though "hub" refers to something else in @cosmos).
Why you'd allow just a temporary window for ENG holders to convert their tokens from ENG <> SCRT is bewildering. Your token did nothing for 3 years and then you burned everyone in 6 months. Do you think people keep up to date with your blog post? Get pop-up notifications?
Would it be unfair to ask that projects don't suddenly burn their token holders' balances all of a sudden with no recourse after the fact? Especially inactive projects with no real product yet?

@SecretNetwork fix your shit, make your holders whole.
Read 8 tweets
19 Feb
This is what Binance's BTC withdrawal page looks like in 2021
I may add that I've been trying for hours but it doesn't even work. This is the only error message you get. @cz_binance your exchange is trash.
Are you fucking kidding me
Read 4 tweets

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