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21 Feb, 12 tweets, 3 min read
๐Ÿค– JPM | on #Bitcoin and Crypto: Bitcoin is an economic side show โ€“ the rise of digital finance is the real post-COVID-19 story

1/
๐Ÿ”น Fintech has gone mainstream, and we highlight the rise of digital finance in the COVID-19 era in our annual review of blockchain technology, #Bitcoin and other digital currencies.

2/
๐Ÿ”น #Bitcoin prices have continued their meteoric rise with Tesla, BNY Mellon and Mastercardโ€™s announcements of greater acceptance of cryptocurrencies...

3/
๐Ÿ”น ...but fintech innovation and increased demand for digital services are the real COVID-19 story with the rise of online start-ups and expansion of digital platforms into credit and payments.

4/
๐Ÿ”น Expect โ€˜co-opetitionโ€™ between โ€˜Finโ€™ and โ€˜Techโ€™ players with banks focused on narrowing the technology gap, while Big Tech benefits from a large customer base and access to their data.

5/
๐Ÿ”น Investor and regulatory shifts will play out as Big Tech looks to issue Global Stablecoins (GSCs) and regulation has been outpaced by innovation, creating an uneven playing field.

6/
๐Ÿ”น Traditional banks could emerge as endgame winners in the digital age of banking due to their advantage from deposit franchise, risk management and regulation.

7/
๐Ÿ”น #Bitcoin prices boosted by momentum traders, but current prices are well above our most recent estimates of fair value based on mining costs and risk capital equivalence with gold.

8/
๐Ÿ”น In the long term, we estimate that theoretically #Bitcoin prices would need to rise to $146k for the market cap to match the total private sector investment in gold via ETFs or bars and coins.

9/
๐Ÿ”น Crypto assets rank as the poorest hedge for major drawdowns in Equities, and diversification benefits are unclear at prices so far above production costs, while increased ownership is raising correlations with cyclical assets.

10/
๐Ÿ”น Watch the tail risk to #Bitcoin markets as a sudden loss of confidence in USDT would likely generate a severe liquidity shock, jeopardizing access to the largest pools of demand and liquidity.

11/
๐Ÿ”น Some central banks are likely to issue Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) in the next 3 years but transformative impact is still questionable given restrictions based on jurisdiction.

/End.

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More from @PriapusIQ

19 Feb
๐Ÿงฎ Today's Flash PMI Summary:

Composite -

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 58.8 (Prev. 58.7)
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง 49.8 vs. Exp. 42.2 (Prev. 41.2)
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ 48.1 vs. Exp. 48 (Prev. 47.8)
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช 51.3 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.8)
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท 45.2 vs. Exp. 47.5 (Prev. 47.7)
Services -

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 58.9 vs. Exp. 57.6 (Prev. 58.3)
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง 49.7 vs. Exp. 41 (Prev. 39.5)
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ 44.7 vs. Exp. 45.9 (Prev. 45.4)
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช 45.9 vs. Exp. 46.5 (Prev. 46.7)
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท 43.6 vs. Exp. 47 (Prev. 47.3)
Manufacturing -

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 58.5 vs. Exp. 58.5 (Prev. 59.2)
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง 54.9 vs. Exp. 53.2 (Prev. 54.1)
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ 57.7 vs. Exp. 54.3 (Prev. 54.8)
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช 60.6 vs. Exp. 56.5 (Prev. 57.1)
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท 55.0 vs. Exp. 51.4 (Prev. 51.6)
Read 4 tweets
19 Feb
๐Ÿ’ณ BofA | Aggregated daily card spending by major category
๐Ÿ’ณ BofA | Spending by major categories in major states (daily % yoy of 7-day moving average of spending level)
๐Ÿ’ณ BofA | Aggregated daily total card spending by major Metropolitan Statistical Area
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19 Feb
๐Ÿงฎ IHS Flash PMI Summary:

Composite -

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง 49.8 vs. Exp. 42.2 (Prev. 41.2)
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ 48.1 vs. Exp. 48 (Prev. 47.8)
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช 51.3 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.8)
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท 45.2 vs. Exp. 47.5 (Prev. 47.7)
๐Ÿงฎ Services -

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง 49.7 vs. Exp. 41 (Prev. 39.5)
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ 44.7 vs. Exp. 45.9 (Prev. 45.4)
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช 45.9 vs. Exp. 46.5 (Prev. 46.7)
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท 43.6 vs. Exp. 47 (Prev. 47.3)
๐Ÿงฎ Manufacturing -

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง 54.9 vs. Exp. 53.2 (Prev. 54.1)
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ 57.7 vs. Exp. 54.3 (Prev. 54.8)
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช 60.6 vs. Exp. 56.5 (Prev. 57.1)
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Read 4 tweets
18 Feb
โš“๏ธ Cass Shipments Index

๐Ÿ”น The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index accelerated to 8.6% y/y growth in January 2021 from 6.7% y/y growth in December. This was higher than the 7.8% predicted in this monthโ€™s ACT Freight Forecast report Image
โš“๏ธ Cass Expenditures Index

๐Ÿ”น Freight rate increases accelerated in Januaryย  at the fastest pace since 2009-2011, with the exception of a few months in late 2018. Image
โš“๏ธ Cass Implied Freight Rates

๐Ÿ”น The freight rates embedded in the Cass Freight Index accelerated to a 10.1% y/y increase in January from a 6.0% y/y increase in December. The acceleration reflects the fact that some contract rates adjust at the start of the calendar year. Image
Read 4 tweets
15 Dec 20
๐Ÿ”Ž Goldman Sachs | Guide to European Indicies

๐Ÿ‘ Hopefully, this is a useful resource for folks new to financial markets, and old hands might even pick up something new.
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช DAX:

๐Ÿ”น It is a blue-chip index consisting of the 30 major companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The weight of each constituent cannot exceed 10%

๐Ÿ”น The DAX index has low exposure to Germany (20%)

๐Ÿ”น When China sneezes, the DAX catches cold.
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช MDAX:

๐Ÿ”น MDAX offers access to the German midcap segment

๐Ÿ”น Index has a revenue exposure of 51% to Europe, 19% to North America, 17% to Asia-Pacific and 13% to other Emerging Markets

๐Ÿ”น Argue that it provides a poor reflection of domestic German growth, rates or policies.
Read 11 tweets
14 Dec 20
๐Ÿฆ‘๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Goldman Sachs | Brexit:

๐Ÿ”น We expect Sterling to appreciate by 1.5-2% against the Euro on the apparent progress towards a dealโ€”or at least avoiding a no-deal outcome for now.

๐Ÿ”น Our base case remains that a โ€œthinโ€ free trade agreement (FTA) will be reached
๐Ÿ”น That said, there is plenty of uncertainty around this; the risk of a no-deal outcome persists
๐Ÿ”น We see the downside risk to yields in the event of a breakdown in negotiations as roughly symmetric given that yields are at, or near, all-time lows

๐Ÿ”น We see the potential for a further 15-20bp decline in 10y gilt yields in a no deal outcome.
Read 6 tweets

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