Froth alert:

My reality TV star childhood friend who I convinced in March/April to buy BTC & ETH ETPs called me today to tell me that he's put $7k into Binance and bought: 1. Cardano 2. Polkadot 3. Chainlink 4. VeChain.

Had no clue what either of these things were.
Frothometer 9.3/10
This confirmed an intuition that I've had: retail investors don't have any awareness of whether $LINK is a token or its own L1 token and therefore should be valued like BTC or ETH. This is my main rationale for understanding Chainlink's absurd valuation.
Frogs seriously underestimate the premium $LINK is trading at due to this confusion. I'm willing to bet 60-80% of holders are not aware that $LINK does not compete with BTC or ETH, that it almost definitely will not have a broad currency use case (just a single-use utility coin)
P. S. Where can I buy long-term put options on $LINK?
Tired of answering comments from marines. @ChainLinkGod up for clubhouse debate instead?
$10k for charity if your squad leader steps up. Not sure what kind of man would reject this offer.

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More from @ercwl

21 Feb
Bitfinex FTW. Even though you lost me 17% of my networth when getting hacked (would have been much more if you didn't tokenize my debt and made it liquid) and you made temporarily me sell BTC at ~$1100 because Tether artificially spurred the 2017 rally by trading at a discount ❤️
Bitfinex could have gone into bankruptcy liquidation like @MtGox and in this case I'd be pretty broke right now, waiting for settlement. But they refused. In my mind @bitfinex is a pirate ship, sailing to ever-more exciting horizons, despite waves or storms.
I did work indirectly with Bitfinex trying to catch spoofy. A subsidiary of my company sold them a market surveillance system to catch wash trading and other mischief, and I was the advisor to that project and I got a great kick out of hearing Phil Potter yell at my colleagues 😂
Read 9 tweets
21 Feb
I hedged my ETH positions with market-cap weighted BSC (BNB) ~2 weeks ago, but that's only because I expected it to rally short-term now that yield-farming and low fees will attract activity there and make BSC look like serious Ethereum contender.
That said I don't have long-term belief in BSC. I think that mature Ethereum L2s with some primitive cross-rollup interaction will bring fees lower and create a viable platform for Ethereum users and I believe developers will ideologically favor Ethereum options as their #1 pick.
As APYs run out on BSC as those governance tokens have been farmed and as acceptable fee environments arise on Ethereum, BSC will pass as a fad. Everyone knows that BSC is a ticking regulatory time bomb--as is Ethereum--but with much less resilience in that inevitable war.
Read 13 tweets
20 Feb
Nyan Cat sold for 300 ETH ($600k)

If real, we're going to very soon drown in more and more NFTs bidding for fewer and fewer buyers.
My prediction for NFTs: I think the entire concept will end up in a technologically untenable situation. There are many NFT platforms and plenty of complexity that arises if you attempt to migrate NFTs cross-platform (who has the right?). The base-layer itself could also fork.
Social consensus is defines which NFT incarnation is canonical, but it's not binary. Social consensus works half-ok (not exactly perfect) for cryptocurrencies because there are monetary reasons for convergence. NFT incentives for canonical platform consensus are weak/fragile.
Read 6 tweets
19 Feb
We're currently in the "Is it a bubble?" band. The next band is the "FOMO intensifies" band, which we'll enter at ~$56,500.

What's interesting about the "FOMO intensifies" band is that it really is a "FOMO intensifies"-band. Let's look at previous examples:
Last time we entered the FOMO-band was in 2017-11-20 at $8,100. We shot right past through it. 10 days later, we were at $11,500. A 42% gain.
The time before that was during a bounce from a dip. We shot through the entire band in one day (2014-02-25).

Entry price: $312
Exit price: $443
Number of days: 1

Also a 42% gain, of course.
Read 9 tweets
19 Feb
Just found out I have XXX ENG in a wallet somewhere that are now worthless because @EnigmaMPC decided to move from being an ERC20 to becoming a @cosmos zone (which they've confusingly named "Secret Hub", even though "hub" refers to something else in @cosmos).
Why you'd allow just a temporary window for ENG holders to convert their tokens from ENG <> SCRT is bewildering. Your token did nothing for 3 years and then you burned everyone in 6 months. Do you think people keep up to date with your blog post? Get pop-up notifications?
Would it be unfair to ask that projects don't suddenly burn their token holders' balances all of a sudden with no recourse after the fact? Especially inactive projects with no real product yet?

@SecretNetwork fix your shit, make your holders whole.
Read 8 tweets
19 Feb
This is what Binance's BTC withdrawal page looks like in 2021
I may add that I've been trying for hours but it doesn't even work. This is the only error message you get. @cz_binance your exchange is trash.
Are you fucking kidding me
Read 4 tweets

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